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Sub-national opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election

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For regional and individual constituency polls, see Sub-national opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election.

Opinion polling for UK general elections
2015 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2017 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2019 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2024 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
Next election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval

Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election was carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The opinion polls listed range from the previous election on 12 December 2019 to the election on Thursday, 4 July 2024.[1]

This article collates polling conducted for various geographical regions, including polls of individual constituencies. Polling covering all of the UK or Great Britain are collated in the article Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election.

Northern Ireland

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		DUP Sinn Féin Alliance SDLP UUP TUV Others Lead
7 Jul 2024 2024 general election[2] – 22.1% 27.0% 15.0% 11.1% 12.2% 6.2% 6.4% 4.9
24–25 Jun 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph[3] 3,859 21% 23% 18% 14% 13% 4% 2
8–10 Jun 2024 LucidTalk[4] Belfast Telegraph 3,634 21% 24% 17% 13% 12% 5%
8%
1% People Before Profit
1% Greens
1% Aontú
5% Independents and Others
 3
10–13 May 2024 LucidTalk[5] Belfast Telegraph 3,316 20% 26% 15% 10% 13% 8%
8%
2% Aontú
1% People Before Profit
1% Greens
4% Independents and Others
 6
28 Jan – 11 Feb 2024 Social Market Research[6] Irish News–University of Liverpool 1,206 23.5% 31.1% 15.2% 8.1% 11.1% 4.8% – 6.6
26 Oct – 3 Nov 2023 Social Market Research[7] Institute of Irish Studies 1,074 25% 31% 15% 9% 11% 5% 5% 6
14 Jan – 7 Sep 2023 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey[a] ARK 1,200 19% 24% 28% 9% 13% –
9%
Greens on 5%
Others on 4%
 4
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 30.6% 22.8% 16.8% 14.9% 11.7% N/A 3.2% 7.8

Scotland

[edit]
Graph of opinion polls conducted in Scotland
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		SNP Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Ref. Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 30.0% 12.7% 35.3% 9.7% 3.8% 7.0% 1.6% 5.3
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2024 Savanta The Scotsman 1,083 34% 15% 31% 9% 3% 6% 2% 3
24–28 Jun 2024 More in Common N/A 1,008 30% 16% 35% 9% 2% 7% 1% 5
26–27 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,200 32% 11% 38% 7% 3% 8% 1% 6
24–26 Jun 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times - 31% 13% 35% 8% 3% 8% 2% 4
21–25 Jun 2024 Savanta The Scotsman 1,042 34% 14% 34% 7% – – 7% Tie
21–25 Jun 2024 Survation Ballot Box Scotland 1,022 31% 14% 37% 7% 3% 8% 1% 6
20–25 Jun 2024 YouGov Sky News 1,059 29% 11% 35% 11% 5% 8% 1% 6
14–18 Jun 2024 Savanta The Scotsman 1,069 33% 15% 38% 7% – – 7% 5
14–18 Jun 2024 YouGov N/A 1,146 31% 11% 34% 7% 6% 11% 1% 3
11–14 Jun 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times 1,050 30% 14% 34% 9% 4% 7% 2% 4
5–10 Jun 2024 Opinium N/A 1,017 34% 14% 35% 8% 4% 5% 1% 1
3–9 Jun 2024 Ipsos STV News 1,136 36% 13% 36% 5% 3% 4%
2%
Alba on 1%
Other on 1%
 Tie
3–7 Jun 2024 YouGov N/A 1,068 30% 13% 34% 8% 6% 7% 2% 4
1–2 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 29% 17% 39% 8% 3% 4%
2%
Alba on 1%
Other on 1%
 10
24–28 May 2024 Savanta The Scotsman 1,067 33% 17% 37% 7% – – 5% 4
23–27 May 2024 Survation True North 1,026 32% 17% 36% 9% – – 6% 4
22–25 May 2024 More in Common N/A 1,016 30% 17% 35% 10% 3% 4% 1% 5
22 May Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024
13–17 May 2024 YouGov N/A 1,114 29% 12% 39% 8% 7% 4% 2% 10
8–9 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,078 31% 14% 38% 8% 4% 4%
1%
Alba on 1%
Other on 0%
 7
6–8 May John Swinney is elected Leader of the Scottish National Party and First Minister of Scotland
3–8 May 2024 Savanta The Scotsman 1,080 33% 17% 37% 7% – – 4% 4
30 Apr – 3 May 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times 1,014 29% 16% 34% 8% 4% 6%
4%
Alba on 3%
Other on 1%
 5
29 Apr 2024 Humza Yousaf announces his resignation as First Minister of Scotland.
26–29 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A 1,043 33% 14% 34% 8% 4% 5% 2% 1
9–12 Apr 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times 1,086 32% 16% 32% 9% 4% 5%
3%
Alba on 2%
Other on 1%
 Tie
6–7 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 32% 17% 33% 8% 2% 5%
2%
Alba on 2%
Other on 0%
 1
25 Mar – 2 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A 1,100 31% 14% 33% 7% 5% 7% 1% 2
10–11 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 34% 16% 34% 6% 4% 4%
1%
Alba on 1%
Other on 0%
 Tie
14–20 Feb 2024 Survation Quantum Communications 1,043 38% 15% 33% 8% – – 7% 5
3–4 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 33% 18% 34% 8% 2% 4%
1%
Alba on 1%
Other on 0%
 1
25–31 Jan 2024 Ipsos STV News 1,005 39% 14% 32% 6% 4% – 5% 7
23–25 Jan 2024 Survation True North 1,029 36% 16% 34% 8% – – 7% 2
22–25 Jan 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times 1,007 33% 16% 36% 7% – – 8% 3
9–11 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,040 35% 17% 35% 9% 2% 2% 1% Tie
26–27 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,054 34% 17% 36% 6% 3% 3% 0% 2
20–26 Nov 2023 Ipsos N/A 990 40% 15% 30% 6% 3% – 5% 10
29–30 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,092 32% 23% 32% 8% 2% 2% 1% Tie
20–25 Oct 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study 1,200 32% 16% 38% 6% 4% – 4% 6
6–11 Oct 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,018 35% 19% 35% 6% – – 4% Tie
2–6 Oct 2023 YouGov N/A 1,028 33% 20% 32% 5% 5% 2% 2% 1
5 Oct 2023 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election
4–5 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,095 34% 21% 32% 9% 2% – 2% 4
5–14 Sep 2023 Opinium Tony Blair Institute 1,004 37% 18% 28% 8% 4% – 4% 9
8–13 Sep 2023 YouGov The Times 1,103 38% 16% 27% 7% 6% 4% 2% 11
2–4 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 35% 15% 35% 8% 4% – 3% Tie
15–18 Aug 2023 Survation True North 1,022 37% 17% 35% 6% – – 5% 2
3–8 Aug 2023 YouGov The Times 1,086 36% 15% 32% 6% 6% 3% 2% 4
5–6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 37% 17% 34% 7% 2% – 3% 3
1–2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,030 35% 21% 32% 7% 2% – 3% 3
23–28 Jun 2023 Survation – 2,026 37% 17% 34% 9% – – 4% 3
12–15 Jun 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,007 34% 18% 34% 7% – – 7% Tie
9–14 Jun 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,018 38% 17% 34% 7% – – 4% 4
9–13 Jun 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study 1,200 33% 17% 36% 7% 4% – 3% 3
3–5 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,466 37% 20% 28% 9% 3% – 3% 9
15–21 May 2023 Ipsos MORI STV News 1,090 41% 16% 29% 6% 3% – 4% 12
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 Survation True North 1,009 38% 18% 31% 9% 2% – 4% 7
30 Apr – 2 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,295 35% 18% 32% 9% 3% – 3% 3
17–20 Apr 2023 YouGov The Times 1,032 37% 17% 28% 8% 5% 2% 2% 9
29 Mar – 3 Apr 2023 Survation N/A 1,001 40% 17% 32% 7% 1% – 3% 8
31 Mar – 1 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 36% 19% 31% 10% 2% – 3% 5
28–31 Mar 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,009 39% 19% 33% 6% – – 4% 6
28–30 Mar 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,089 39% 19% 31% 5% – – 6% 8
27 Mar 2023 Humza Yousaf is elected leader of the Scottish National Party
9–13 Mar 2023 YouGov Sky News 1,002 39% 16% 29% 6% 6% 3% 1% 10
8–10 Mar 2023 Survation Diffley Partnership 1,037 40% 18% 32% 6% 2% – 3% 8
7–10 Mar 2023 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1,013 40% 16% 33% 6% – – 5% 7
2–5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 39% 22% 29% 6% 2% – 3% 10
17–20 Feb 2023 YouGov The Times 1,017 38% 19% 29% 6% 4% 2% 2% 9
15–17 Feb 2023 Survation N/A 1,034 43% 17% 30% 6% – – 3% 13
15–17 Feb 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,004 42% 17% 32% 6% – – 3% 10
10–15 Feb 2023 YouGov Scottish Election Study 1,239 38% 16% 35% 6% 3% – 3% 3
1–7 Feb 2023 Survation N/A TBA 42% 18% 29% 6% – – 0% 13
23–26 Jan 2023 YouGov The Sunday Times 1,088 42% 15% 29% 6% 3% 3% 2% 13
10–12 Jan 2023 Survation True North 1,002 43% 18% 29% 7% – – 2% 14
22 Dec – 1 Jan 2023 Survation Scotland in Union 1,025 44% 16% 31% 6% – – 1% 13
16–21 Dec 2022 Savanta The Scotsman 1,048 43% 19% 30% 6% – – 2% 13
6–9 Dec 2022 YouGov The Times 1,090 43% 14% 29% 6% 4% 3% 1% 14
28 Nov – 5 Dec 2022 Ipsos MORI STV News 1,045 51% 13% 25% 6% 3% – 0% 26
26–27 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 41% 16% 31% 8% 2% – 3% 10
7–11 Oct 2022 Panelbase Alba Party 1,000+ 42% 16% 30% 6% 2% – 2% 12
5–7 Oct 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,017 45% 15% 30% 5% – – 4% 15
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 YouGov The Times 1,067 45% 12% 31% 7% 3% 1% 1% 14
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 ComRes The Scotsman 1,029 46% 15% 30% 8% – – 1% 16
28–29 Sep 2022 Survation Scotland in Union 1,011 44% 15% 31% 6% – – 4% 13
17–19 Aug 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,133 44% 20% 23% 8% – – 5% 21
29 Jun – 1 Jul 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,010 47% 19% 23% 8% – – 3% 24
23–28 Jun 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,029 46% 18% 25% 8% – – 3% 21
23–29 May 2022 Ipsos STV News 1,000 44% 19% 23% 10% 3% – 2% 21
18–23 May 2022 YouGov The Times 1,115 46% 19% 22% 6% 3% 1% 2% 24
5 May 2022 Local elections held in Scotland
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,009 42% 21% 24% 7% – – 5% 18
25–31 Mar 2022 BMG The Herald 1,012 42% 19% 26% 6% 4% – 2% 16
24–28 Mar 2022 Survation Ballot Box Scotland 1,002 45% 19% 27% 6% – – 2% 18
1–4 Feb 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,128 44% 20% 24% 8% 2% – 2% 20
15–22 Dec 2021 Opinium Daily Record 1,328 48% 17% 22% 7% 3% – 4% 26
18–22 Nov 2021 YouGov The Times 1,060 48% 20% 18% 6% 3% 2% 2% 28
9–12 Nov 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,000~ 48% 21% 20% 7% – – 4% 27
20–26 Oct 2021 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1,001 48% 21% 21% 7% – – 4% 27
6–10 Sep 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 2,003 47% 23% 19% 7% – – 4% 24
2–8 Sep 2021 Opinium Sky News 1,014 51% 21% 17% 5% 2% – 3% 30
20 Aug 2021 Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats[9]
16–24 Jun 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,287 47% 25% 18% 6% – – 4% 22
13 May 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election
6 May 2021 Election to the Scottish Parliament[10]
2–4 May 2021 YouGov The Times 1,144 48% 22% 19% 5% 4% 1% 2% 26
30 Apr – 4 May 2021 Survation DC Thomson 1,008 48% 22% 20% 7% 1% – 1% 26
28 Apr – 03 May 2021 Opinium Sky News 1,015 47% 25% 20% 6% 1% – 1% 22
27–30 Apr 2021 BMG The Herald 1,023 48% 20% 20% 7% 3% – 1% 28
23–26 Apr 2021 Survation Good Morning Britain 1,008 46% 22% 22% 8% – – 2% 24
21–26 Apr 2021 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1,075 45% 22% 19% 7% 4% – 3% 23
20–22 Apr 2021 Survation DC Thomson 1,037 47% 21% 22% 8% 1% – 1% 25
16–20 Apr 2021 YouGov The Times 1,204 48% 24% 19% 4% 3% 1% 2% 24
1–6 Apr 2021 Opinium Sky News 1,023 50% 24% 19% 4% 1% – 1% 26
29–30 Mar 2021 Survation The Courier 1,021 49% 21% 21% 8% 1% – 0% 28
19–22 Mar 2021 YouGov The Times TBA 49% 24% 17% 4% 4% 1% 1% 25
16–19 Mar 2021 BMG The Herald 1,021 47% 21% 19% 7% 3% – 3% 26
11–18 Mar 2021 Survation The Courier 1,452 49% 21% 21% 7% 1% – 1% 28
11–16 Mar 2021 Opinium Sky News 1,096 50% 23% 19% 5% 3% – 1% 27
4–8 Mar 2021 YouGov The Times 1,100 50% 23% 17% 5% 3% 1% 1% 27
27 Feb 2021 Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour[11]
25–26 Feb 2021 Survation Daily Record 1,011 48% 23% 21% 6% – – 2% 25
11–13 Jan 2021 Survation Scot Goes Pop 1,020 48% 19% 23% 7% – – 3% 25
4–9 Dec 2020 Survation N/A 1,009 51% 20% 21% 6% 3% – – 30
5–11 Nov 2020 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1,020 50% 21% 20% 5% 2% – – 29
6–10 Nov 2020 YouGov The Times 1,089 53% 19% 17% 4% 3% 3% 1% 34
28 Oct – 4 Nov 2020 Survation N/A 1,059 52% 18% 20% 8% – – 2% 32
17–21 Sep 2020 JL Partners Politico 1,016 56% 18% 15% 7% 3% – 0% 38
2–7 Sep 2020 Survation N/A 1,018 51% 20% 21% 6% – – 3% 30
6–10 Aug 2020 YouGov The Times 1,142 54% 20% 16% 5% 2% 2% 0% 34
5 Aug 2020 Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives[12]
30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,026 53% 21% 19% 6% – – 2% 32
1–5 Jun 2020 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1,022 51% 21% 19% 6% 2% – 1% 30
1–5 May 2020 Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 1,086 50% 26% 17% 5% 2% – 1% 24
24–27 Apr 2020 YouGov N/A 1,095 51% 25% 15% 6% 2% 0% 1% 26
24–26 Mar 2020 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,023 48% 27% 16% 5% 3% – – 21
14 Feb 2020 Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives[13]
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 45.0% 25.1% 18.6% 9.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 19.9

Wales

[edit]
Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab. Con. Plaid Cymru Lib. Dems Ref. Green Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election[14] – 37.0% 18.2% 14.8% 6.5% 16.9% 4.7% 1.9% 18.8
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,072 40% 16% 14% 7% 16% 5% 2% 24
24–28 Jun 2024 More in Common N/A 848 42% 22% 9% 4% 14% 5% 4% 20
19–20 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 930 46% 15% 10% 7% 17% 4% 1% 29
14–18 Jun 2024 Savanta N/A 1,026 49% 19% 12% 5% 12% 3% - 30
5–7 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 960 45% 18% 11% 5% 18% 4% 0% 27
30 May – 3 Jun 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,066 45% 18% 12% 5% 13% 4% 1% 27
22–27 May 2024 More in Common N/A 805 45% 21% 13% 4% 12% 3% 1% 24
22 May 2024 Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024
18–19 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 900 43% 19% 14% 3% 15% 6% 1% 24
22–23 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 840 40% 18% 14% 6% 18% 4% 0% 22
23–24 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 878 49% 16% 10% 5% 15% 5% 1% 33
20 Mar 2024 Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[15]
18 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 874 45% 22% 10% 5% 13% 5% 1% 23
24–26 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 48% 20% 10% 4% 12% 4% 1% 28
10–11 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,086 47% 22% 11% 6% 10% 2% 0% 25
4–7 Dec 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,004 42% 20% 15% 7% 12% 3% 1% 22
12–13 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 44% 24% 13% 4% 9% 5% 1% 20
14–15 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 959 46% 26% 10% 3% 10% 4% 0% 20
16–17 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,172 44% 22% 10% 9% 7% 6% 1% 22
1–6 Sep 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,051 50% 19% 12% 5% 8% 5% 2% 31
13–14 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,068 41% 24% 13% 7% 11% 4% 0% 17
14–16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 46% 24% 10% 7% 10% 3% 1% 22
17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 43% 22% 10% 7% 12% 4% 1% 21
16 Jun 2023 Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[16]
12–17 May 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,064 49% 19% 10% 8% 9% 4% 1% 30
14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,058 43% 23% 11% 8% 9% 4% 1% 20
15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,251 44% 24% 12% 7% 9% 4% 0% 20
17–23 Feb 2023 YouGov WalesOnline 1,083 53% 19% 12% 4% 8% 3% 1% 34
3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,081 49% 20% 14% 5% 9% 3% 1% 29
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,042 51% 18% 13% 4% 8% 4% 2% 33
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 Survation 38 Degrees 6,012 51% 24% 13% 6% – – 6% 27
20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,014 46% 23% 15% 5% 5% 3% 3% 23
12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,020 41% 26% 16% 7% 4% 4% 2% 15
5 May 2022 Local elections held in Wales[17]
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,086 41% 26% 13% 7% 6% 4% 3% 15
13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,009 41% 26% 13% 3% 7% 6% 3% 15
27 Sep – 1 Oct 2021 YouGov ? ? 39% 29% 17% 3% 5% – 7% 10
13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 31% 15% 4% 6% 5% 2% 6
6 May 2021 Election to the Senedd[18]
2–4 May 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 36% 14% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1
18–21 Apr 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,142 37% 33% 18% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4
9–19 Apr 2021 Opinium Sky News 2,005 42% 33% 14% 3% – 3%
5%
UKIP on 3%
Other on 2%
 9
16–19 Mar 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,174 35% 35% 17% 4% 2% 3% 3% Tie
24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[19]
11–14 Jan 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,018 36% 33% 17% 3% 5% 4% 2% 3
26–30 Oct 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,013 43% 32% 13% 3% 5% 3% 2% 11
28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,110 41% 33% 15% 2% 4% 3% 2% 8
29 May – 1 Jun 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,021 39% 35% 15% 5% 2% 3% 1% 4
3–7 Apr 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,008 34% 46% 11% 4% 3% 2% 0% 12
20–26 Jan 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,037 36% 41% 13% 5% 3% 2% 1% 5
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 40.9% 36.1% 9.9% 6.0% 5.4% 1.0% 0.7% 4.8

English mayoral regions

[edit]

Most of the following polling are the results of secondary questions on Westminster voting intention from polls primarily for the May 2024 United Kingdom mayoralty elections.

London

[edit]
Graph of opinion polls conducted in London
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab. Con. Lib. Dems Green Ref. Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 43.1% 20.4% 11.1% 8.7% 10.1% 6.6% 22.7
21–26 Jun 2024 Savanta Centre for London 1,579 49% 19% 10% 6% 11% 5% 30
10–18 Jun 2024 Savanta Mile End Institute 1,022 55% 22% 10% 5% 8% 1% 33
2 May 2024 Elections to the Mayoralty and London Assembly
26–30 Apr 2024 Savanta Centre for London 1,532 53% 23% 13% 4% 8% 0% 30
24–30 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A 1,192 54% 17% 9% 9% 9% 2% 37
9–17 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A 1,157 55% 16% 8% 9% 9% 3% 39
8–17 Apr 2024 Savanta Mile End Institute 1,034 52% 27% 10% 4% 6% 1% 25
6–8 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 51% 23% 13% 7% 5% 0% 28
21–26 Mar 2024 Survation ITV 1,019 52% 21% 11% 6% 9% 1% 31
12–19 Feb 2024 YouGov QMUL 1,113 52% 17% 10% 10% 10% 1% 35
31 Oct – 8 Nov 2023 Lord Ashcroft Evening Standard 2,750 51% 23% 13% 6% 6% 1% 28
12–17 Oct 2023 YouGov QMUL 1,066 55% 20% 9% 9% 4% 2% 35
4–6 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 47% 27% 17% 4% 4% 1% 20
20 Jul 2023 By-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip
30 Jun – 5 Jul 2023 Survation N/A 1,050 53% 23% 14% 4% 3%
2%
Reclaim Party on 1%
UKIP on 0%
Other on 1%
 30
27–31 Mar 2023 YouGov N/A 1,051 58% 18% 9% 7% 6% 1% 40
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 Survation 38 Degrees 6,012 59% 22% 13% – – 6% 37
5 May 2022 Local elections in London
28 Feb – 3 Mar 2022 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,114 56% 24% 8% 8% 2% 1% 32
13–17 Jan 2022 YouGov N/A 1,166 55% 23% 9% 7% 3% 3% 32
7–10 Jan 2022 YouGov N/A 1,115 51% 23% 11% 9% 4% 2% 28
2 Dec 2021 Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election
6 May 2021 Elections to the Mayoralty and London Assembly[20]
4–5 May 2021 Panelbase N/A 1,002 47% 32% 12% 6% – 4% 15
2–4 May 2021 YouGov N/A 1,141 51% 33% 7% 7% 1% 1% 18
28 Apr – 03 May 2021 Opinium N/A 1,005 47% 32% 11% 6% 0%
4%
UKIP on 2%
Other on 2%
 15
7–10 Apr 2021 Opinium N/A 1,093 49% 33% 9% 6% 0%
4%
UKIP on 2%
Other on 2%
 16
29 Mar – 1 Apr 2021 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,192 50% 31% 8% 7% 2% 2% 19
17–20 Mar 2021 Opinium N/A 1,100 49% 34% 9% 6% 0%
3%
UKIP on 2%
Other on 1%
 15
13–14 Jan 2021 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 48% 27% 14% 8% 2% 3% 21
16–19 Nov 2020 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,192 55% 30% 7% 5% 3% 1% 25
15–17 Oct 2020 Redfield & Wilton N/A 2,000 53% 26% 12% 6% – 3% 27
7–8 Sep 2020 Redfield & Wilton N/A 2,000 50% 29% 12% 6% – 3% 21
5–7 Aug 2020 Redfield & Wilton N/A 2,500 48% 29% 14% 7% – 2% 19
2–6 Mar 2020 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,002 46% 34% 11% 7% 1% 1% 12
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 48.1% 32.0% 14.9% 3.1% 1.4% 0.5% 16.1

Tees Valley

[edit]

The following polls related to the Tees Valley Combined Authority area, which comprises the seven constituencies of Darlington, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough and Thornaby East, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, Redcar, Stockton North, and Stockton West.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Ref. Lib. Dems Green Other Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 31.1% 42.5% 16.7% 3.4% 4.1% 2.2% 11.5
2 May 2024 2024 Tees Valley mayoral election
17–19 Apr 2024 Redfield and Wilton N/A 900 26% 49% 15% 6% 4% 0% 23
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 43.9% 40.2% 7.8% 4.2% 1.2% 2.7% 3.7

West Midlands county

[edit]

The following polls relate to the West Midlands metropolitan county, as opposed to the statistical region.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Ref. Green Other Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 22.6% 38.8% 5.3% 17.3% 6.5% 9.6% 16.2
2 May 2024 2024 West Midlands mayoral election
11–17 Apr 2024 Savanta The News Agents 1,018 23% 54% 9% 9% 5% 1% 31
10–14 Apr 2024 Redfield and Wilton N/A 1,000 24% 52% 7% 12% 5% 1% 28
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 44.4% 44.1% 6.1% 2.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2

Constituency polling

[edit]

Bicester and Woodstock

[edit]

Bicester and Woodstock was a new seat at the 2024 general election.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lib. Dems Lab. Green Ref. Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 28.8% 38.7% 16.4% 4.8% 10.8% 9.9
6 Jun – 24 Jun 2024 WeThink The Economist 458 30% 31% 31% 3% 3% Tie
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 53.9% 26.6% 16.9% 2.4% 0.3% 27.3

Bristol Central

[edit]

Bristol Central was a new seat at the 2024 general election. The Green Party candidate was one of its co-leaders, Carla Denyer. The Labour Party candidate was the Shadow Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, Thangam Debbonaire.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab. Green Con. Ref. Lib. Dems Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 32.6% 56.6% 4.6% 3.1% 2.7% 0.5% 20.0
25 Jun – 1 Jul 2024 We Think The Green Party 400 40% 49% 6% 3% 3% 0% 9
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 58.5% 26.0% 14.3% 1.2% – 0.2% 47.3

Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen)

[edit]

Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) was a new seat at the 2024 general election, replacing Carmarthen East and Dinefwr and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. PC Lab. Ref. Lib. Dems Ind. (Edwards)[c] Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 19.4% 34.0% 24.1% 15.2% 3.2% – 4.1% 9.9
2 Jan – 4 Feb 2024 Survation Plaid Cymru 520 24% 30% 24% 4% 4% 10% 3% 6
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 39.2% 30.7% 25.1% 3.8% 1.3% – – 8.5

Chingford and Woodford Green

[edit]

Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Chingford and Woodford Green were changed. The Conservative Party's candidate was former party leader Iain Duncan Smith. Faiza Shaheen was the Labour Party candidate for the seat in 2019 and originally reselected to contest the seat again. However, she was deselected by Labour's NEC and replaced.[22][23][24][25] The below poll was conducted before Shaheen left the Labour Party and announced her candidacy as an Independent.[26][27]

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 35.6% 25.8% 2.6% 2.7% 33.2% 9.8
31 Aug – 21 Sep 2021 Opinium[d] Greenpeace 525 42% 39% 6% 8% 5% 3
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 48.2% 45.3% 5.8% 0.4% 0.3% 2.9

Clacton

[edit]

Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Clacton were changed. The Reform UK candidate was the party's leader, Nigel Farage.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Ref. Others Lead
7 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 27.9% 16.2% 4.4% 4.2% 46.2% 3.4% 18.3
10–19 June 2024 JL Partners Friderichs Advisory Partners 502 21% 18% 6% 6% 48% 1% 27
11–13 June 2024 Survation Arron Banks 506 27% 24% 2% 5% 42% 1% 15
9–12 Jan 2024 Survation[d] Arron Banks 509 38% 30% 6% – 18% 9% 8
27% 23% 6% – 37%[e] 8% 10
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 71.9% 15.6% 6.2% 2.9% – 3.4% 56.3

Gillingham and Rainham

[edit]

Gillingham and Rainham maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Ref. Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 28.2% 37.8% 5.5% 5.6% 21.4% 1.2% 9.6
5–16 Jun 2024 We Think The Economist 376 23% 55% 5% 2% 15% 0% 32
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 61.3% 28.4% 5.4% 2.3% – 2.6% 32.9

Godalming and Ash

[edit]

Godalming and Ash was a new seat at the 2024 general election, mostly replacing South West Surrey. The Conservative Party's candidate was Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt.[29][30]

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lib. Dems Lab. Ref. Green Others Lead
7 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 42.6% 41.0% 5.0% 8.8% 2.3% 0.4% 1.6
16–20 Feb 2024 Survation 38 Degrees 507 29% 35% 23% 8% 3% 2% 6
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 53.4% 34.1% 8.9% – 1.6% – 14.6

Hartlepool

[edit]

Hartlepool maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab. Con. Ref. Lib. Dems Green Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 46.2% 21.9% 24.5% 1.6% 2.3% 3.4% 21.7
30 May 2023 – 9 Jun 2024 We Think The Economist 448 58% 10% 23% 6% 2% 1% 32
6 May 2021 2021 Hartlepool by-election – 28.7% 51.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 17% 23.2
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 37.7% 28.9% 25.8% 4.1% – 3.4% 5.4

Holborn and St Pancras

[edit]

Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Holborn and St Pancras were changed. The Labour Party candidate was the party's leader, Sir Keir Starmer.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab. Con. Lib. Dems Green Ref. Ind. (Feinstein) Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 48.9% 7.2% 5.8% 10.4% 6.1% 18.9%
2.5%
Wais Islam on 1.6%
Official Monster Raving Loony Party on 0.4%
UKIP on 0.2%
Socialist Equality Party on 0.2%
Senthil Kumar on 0.1%
Bobby Smith on 0.0%
30.0
19–21 Jun 2024 Survation 38 Degrees 317 54% 9% 9% 14% 5% 6%
4%
Official Monster Raving Loony Party on 2%
Bobby Smith on 1%
Senthil Kumar on 1%
Wais Islam on 0%
 40
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 66.0% 15.2% 12.2% 4.6% 1.8% – 0.3% 50.8

Islington North

[edit]

Islington North maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election. Jeremy Corbyn, the incumbent MP and former Leader of the Labour Party, stood as an independent candidate following his suspension from the party in 2020.[31][32]

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab. Corbyn (Ind.)[f] Lib. Dems Con. Green Ref. Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 34.4% 49.2% 3.4% 4.0% 5.4% 3.5% 0.4% 14.8
20–25 Jun 2024 Survation Stats for Lefties 514 43% 29% 7% 6% 7% 6% 2% 14
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 64.3% 15.6% 10.2% 8.0% 1.4% 0.4% 48.7

Mid Bedfordshire

[edit]

Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Mid Bedfordshire were changed. The 2023 by-election was contested on the 2019 boundaries.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Ref. Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 34.1% 31.4% 8.2% 5.2% 17.3% 3.7% 2.7
19 Oct 2023 2023 Mid Bedfordshire by-election[d] – 31.1% 34.1% 23.1% 1.8% 3.7% 6.7% 3.0
12–15 Sep 2023 Survation[d] Labour Together 559 34% 34% 16% 6% 6% 4% Tie
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 60.5% 20.5% 12.5% 3.9% – 2.6% 40.0

North Herefordshire

[edit]

Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of North Herefordshire were changed.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Ref. Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 31.5% 6.4% 2.9% 43.2% 16.0% 0.2% 11.7
6–14 Jun 2024 We Think The Green Party 501 28% 15% 4% 39% 13% – 11
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 62.5% 15.2% 13.5% 8.8% – – 47.3

Portsmouth North

[edit]

Portsmouth North maintained its 2019 boundaries at the next election. The Conservative Party's candidate was Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the House of Commons.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Ref. Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 33.0% 34.8% 7.3% 4.5% 20.4% – 1.8
9–19 Apr 2024 Techne Penny Mordaunt 1,000 39% 35% 7% 4% 15% – 4
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 61.4% 27.0% 7.4% 2.8% – 1.4% 34.4

Richmond and Northallerton

[edit]

Richmond and Northallerton was a new seat at the 2024 general election. The Conservative Party candidate was the party's leader and prime minister, Rishi Sunak.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Ref. Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 47.5% 22.4% 8.9% 4.2% 14.7% 2.3% 25.1
12–21 Jun 2024 Survation 38 Degrees 331 39% 28% 9% 4% 18%
3%
Count Binface on 1%
Yorkshire Party on 1%
Niko Omilana on 1%
Brian Neil Richmond on 0%
Workers Party of Britain on 0%
 11
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 63.3% 16.4% 12.5% 3.8% – 3.9% 46.9

Waveney Valley

[edit]

Waveney Valley was a new seat at the 2024 general election. The Green Party candidate was one of its co-leaders, Adrian Ramsay.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Ref. Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 30.3% 9.4% 2.5% 41.7% 15.8% 0.2% 11.4
6–14 Jun 2024 We Think The Green Party 500 24% 17% 7% 37% 16% – 13
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 62.2% 27.0% 9.2% 9.3% – 0.7% 35.2

Wokingham

[edit]

Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Wokingham were changed.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lib. Dems Lab. Green Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 32.2% 47.7% 6.7% 3.6% 9.8% 15.5
31 Aug – 21 Sep 2021 Opinium[d] Greenpeace 607 42% 22% 24% 8% 3% 18
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 55.5% 32.3% 9.9% 2.2% 0.1% 23.2

Wycombe

[edit]

Wycombe maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 25.6% 35.9% 9.5% 4.9% 24% 10.3
31 Aug – 21 Sep 2021 Opinium[d] Greenpeace 532 37% 33% 16% 8% 5% 4
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election[b] – 43.1% 39.9% 11.3% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2

Ynys Môn

[edit]

Ynys Môn maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. PC Ref. Lib. Dems Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 30.5% 23.4% 32.5% 9.9% 1.4% 2.5% 2
21 Dec 2023 – 5 Jan 2024 Survation Plaid Cymru 507 26% 27% 39% 4% 1% 3% 12
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 35.5% 30.1% 28.5% 6.0% – – 5.4

Other polling

[edit]

"Red wall"

[edit]
See also: Red wall (British politics)

Polling firms published polls of the "red wall", which took respondents from a selection of constituencies gained by the Conservatives in the 2019 general election. Different pollsters used different sets of constituencies for their polling.

Deltapoll

[edit]

Deltapoll published a poll of the 57 constituencies that the Conservatives gained from Labour and the Liberal Democrats without specifying any regions.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Other Lead
23–30 Dec 2021 Deltapoll The Mail on Sunday 612 33% 49% 8% 10% 16
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 47.4% 37.3% 6.9% 8.4% 10.1

Focaldata

[edit]

Focaldata published a poll of the 44 seats the Conservatives gained from Labour in northern England and the Midlands.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Other Lead
29–30 Apr 2021 Focaldata The Times 573 44% 45% 1% 3% 1
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 47.8% 39.0% 4.8% 8.4% 8.8

JL Partners

[edit]

JL Partners published polls of forty-five seats the Conservative Party gained from the Labour Party across northern England, the Midlands and Wales, apart from Bridgend, Clwyd South, the Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham and Ynys Môn.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Other Lead
2–8 Mar 2023 JL Partners Channel 4 News 508 28% 53% 7% 12% 25
7–22 Feb 2023 JL Partners Channel 4 News 520 30% 56% 6% 8% 26
14–27 Sep 2022 JL Partners Kekst CNC and Conservatives in Communication 538 34% 54% 7% 5% 20
6–16 Jan 2022 JL Partners Channel 4 News 518 37% 48% 8% 7% 11
25 Nov – 6 Dec 2021 JL Partners Channel 4 News – 45% 43% 6% 5% 2
17–25 Mar 2021 JL Partners Channel 4 News 500 47% 43% 4% 6% 4
19–30 Nov 2020 JL Partners Channel 4 News 499 41% 47% 3% 8% 6
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 47.7% 39.1% 4.8% 8.3% 8.6

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

[edit]

Redfield & Wilton Strategies published polls of 37 constituencies won by the Conservatives in 2019 that had been held by Labour in 2010, 2015 and 2017, as well as Burnley, Redcar and Vale of Clwyd

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Ref. Lib. Dems Green PC Other Lead
1 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 24.1% 40.7% 21.7% 4.7% 4.8% 1.9% 2.2% 16.6
11–12 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A TBC 22% 47% 16% 7% 5% 1% 1% 25
13–14 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 24% 44% 18% 6% 5% 1% 2% 20
16 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,072 24% 48% 16% 5% 4% 1% 1% 24
25 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 25% 49% 14% 6% 4% 1% 2% 24
30–31 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,055 28% 48% 14% 4% 5% 1% 1% 20
17–18 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 975 28% 48% 11% 7% 4% 1% 1% 20
19 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 26% 50% 11% 5% 6% 1% 1% 24
22 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 32% 48% 6% 7% 4% 1% 2% 16
23 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,250 31% 45% 10% 6% 6% 1% 1% 14
3 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 32% 48% 6% 7% 3% 2% 3% 16
20 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,060 28% 53% 7% 6% 4% 1% 1% 25
6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,400 28% 49% 8% 8% 4% 2% 1% 21
23 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 30% 48% 10% 6% 4% 2% 1% 18
9 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,150 27% 52% 9% 6% 4% 1% 2% 25
25 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,020 26% 53% 9% 6% 4% 1% 1% 27
11 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,200 28% 50% 8% 7% 4% 1% 2% 22
28 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,158 31% 48% 7% 7% 4% 1% 1% 17
14 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 29% 52% 7% 7% 4% 1% 0% 23
30 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 30% 48% 6% 8% 5% 2% 1% 18
16 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 31% 47% 7% 7% 5% 1% 2% 16
3 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 30% 49% 9% 6% 4% 1% 1% 19
19 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 32% 48% 8% 6% 4% 1% 2% 16
5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 29% 51% 9% 6% 2% 1% 2% 22
19 Feb 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 27% 55% 10% 4% 3% 1% 1% 28
5 Feb 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 29% 52% 8% 5% 4% 1% 1% 23
23 Jan 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,200 27% 53% 9% 5% 4% 1% 1% 26
8–9 Jan 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,200 29% 51% 9% 5% 3% 1% 1% 22
21–22 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton ITV Peston 1,500 30% 53% 5% 6% 3% 1% 1% 23
5–6 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 28% 53% 6% 5% 4% 2% 1% 25
24–25 Oct 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 28% 56% 5% 8% 2% 1% 1% 28
16–17 Oct 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 21% 61% 8% 5% 3% 1% 1% 40
3–4 Oct 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 23% 61% 3% 7% 4% 1% 1% 38
18–19 Sep 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 34% 49% 7% 5% 4% 0% 1% 15
4 Sep 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 31% 48% 7% 7% 5% 1% 1% 17
21 Aug 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 34% 47% 5% 8% 3% 2% 1% 13
08 Aug 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 33% 48% 6% 7% 5% 1% 3% 15
25–26 Jul 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 34% 45% 3% 10% 5% 1% 3% 11
11 Jul 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 32% 46% 7% 10% 4% 0% 1% 13
26–27 Jun 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 35% 46% 3% 8% 3% 1% 2% 11
12–13 Jun 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 36% 46% 6% 5% 4% 2% 2% 10
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 46.7% 38.0% 6.5% 4.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 8.7

YouGov

[edit]

YouGov published polls of all fifty seats the Conservative Party gained from the Labour Party across northern England, the Midlands and Wales.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Other Lead
17–28 Sep 2021 YouGov (MRP) The Times 9,931 41% 40% 5% 14% 1
6–18 Sep 2021 YouGov N/A 794 44% 38% 4% 14% 6
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 47.3% 39.0% 4.7% 8.9% 8.3

"Blue wall"

[edit]
See also: Blue wall (British politics)

Polling firms published polls of the "blue wall", which took respondents from constituencies held by the Conservatives but which might be gained by Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Different pollsters used different sets of constituencies for their polling.

JL Partners

[edit]

JL Partners published a poll of the forty-five seats in southern England which the Conservatives won in 2019 with a majority of under 10,000 votes.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib Dems Green Other Lead
14–27 Sep 2022 JL Partners Kekst CNC and Conservatives in Communication 521 34% 40% 20% 3% 3% 6
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 48.5% 26.6% 21.1% 1.7% 2.1% 21.9

More in Common

[edit]

More in Common published a poll of the thirty-nine seats which the Conservatives won in 2019 and saw the largest total swing towards Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the 2017 and 2019 elections.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lib Dems Lab. Green Ref. Other Lead
20 Feb – 2 Mar 2024 More in Common N/A 1,005 32% 20% 33% 5% 10% 1% 1
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 51% 25% 20% 2% 0% 2% 26

Opinium

[edit]

Opinium published a poll of the forty-one constituencies held by the Conservatives since 2010, where Labour or the Liberal Democrats outperformed their national swing against the Conservatives in 2017 and 2019, with a majority of under 10,000.[33]

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Other Lead
31 Aug – 21 Sep 2021 Opinium Greenpeace 1,000 43% 34% 14% 5% 4% 9
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 48.6% 30.7% 17.6% 1.6% 1.5% 17.9

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

[edit]

Redfield and Wilton Strategies published polls of the forty-two constituencies in southern England which voted Conservative in the last three general elections, where more than a quarter of adults have degrees, where more than 42.5% of voters are estimated to have voted to remain in the European Union in the 2016 referendum, and where the Conservative majority over Labour was under 10,000 or the Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats was under 15,000, in the 2019 general election.[g]

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lib. Dems Lab. Green Ref. Other Lead
28 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 880 25% 23% 34% 5% 11% 1% 9
31 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,040 26% 20% 34% 6% 14% 0% 8
3 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,195 28% 19% 37% 5% 10% 1% 9
11 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 30% 21% 37% 4% 7% 2% 7
17–18 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 30% 24% 31% 2% 11% 1% 1
4 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 800 29% 26% 30% 3% 11% 1% 1
5 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 30% 25% 34% 4% 6% 1% 4
7 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 36% 25% 32% 3% 4% 1% 4
10 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,086 31% 26% 33% 4% 6% 1% 2
26–27 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,274 32% 25% 33% 4% 5% 1% 1
12–13 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,400 33% 25% 32% 5% 5% 0% 1
30 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,150 31% 24% 35% 3% 6% 1% 4
16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,154 32% 23% 36% 5% 5% 0% 4
2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 29% 25% 36% 4% 5% 1% 7
17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 31% 22% 38% 4% 5% 0% 7
4 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,328 30% 26% 34% 5% 5% 1% 4
22 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 34% 22% 33% 3% 6% 2% 1
7 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,090 32% 23% 36% 2% 5% 1% 4
23 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 32% 24% 34% 5% 5% 1% 2
9 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,228 35% 20% 37% 5% 4% 0% 2
26 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 31% 21% 39% 4% 4% 0% 8
12 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,250 34% 23% 36% 3% 4% 1% 2
26 Feb 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,150 32% 18% 41% 5% 4% 1% 9
11–12 Feb 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 34% 17% 41% 4% 3% 2% 7
28–29 Jan 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,200 32% 19% 42% 4% 4% 0% 10
11 Jan 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,200 30% 21% 40% 3% 6% 1% 10
21–22 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton ITV Peston 1,200 30% 21% 41% 4% 3% 1% 11
13–14 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,250 32% 23% 38% 2% 4% 0% 6
29 Oct 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,250 33% 16% 44% 2% 4% 1% 11
7–8 Oct 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,500 28% 24% 41% 4% 3% 4% 13
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 49.7% 27.4% 20.6% 1.3% - 0.9% 22.3

YouGov

[edit]

YouGov specified the blue wall to be constituencies held by the Conservative Party in the South or East of England in the 2019 election, with a population which by majority voted to remain in the European Union and have a higher level of graduates than the country at large.[34]

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lib. Dems Lab. Green Other Lead
6–18 Sep 2021 YouGov N/A 841 45% 15% 26% 11% 4% 19
20–28 Jul 2021 YouGov N/A 1,141 44% 18% 24% 9% 6% 20
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 51.7% 24.0% 19.7% 2.4% 2.2% 27.7

Other geographical samples

[edit]

England and Wales

[edit]

Find Out Now conducted a poll of voters in England and Wales.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Others Lead
4–6 Jun 2021 Find Out Now The Constitution Society 14,596 45% 36% 6% 1% 11% 9
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 46.6% 34.3% 12.1% 2.9% 4.1% 12.3

Cornwall, Cumbria, Gwynedd, Norfolk, and North Yorkshire

[edit]

Survation conducted a poll of voters in Cornwall, Cumbria, Gwynedd, Norfolk, and North Yorkshire.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Other Lead
7–14 Mar 2022 Survation Woodrow Communications 1,012 38% 36% 10% 8%
7%
Reform UK on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 2%
UKIP on 1%
Reclaim Party on 0%
Other on 1%
 2
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 53.3% 25.8% 14.0% 2.2% 4.7 27.5

Coventry

[edit]

Survation conducted a poll of voters in Coventry.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab. Con. Lib. Dems Ref. Green Other Lead
1–11 Apr 2022 Survation Unite the Union 528 52% 27% 6% 5% 6%
3%
UKIP on 1%
Reclaim Party on 0%
Other on 2%
 25
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 46.5% 40.5% 6.0% 4.0% 2.7% 0.3% 6

Most rural constituencies

[edit]

Survation published multiple polls of the 100 most rural constituencies in England.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Ref. Other Lead
23–30 Jan 2024 Survation Country Land and Business Association 1,092 34% 37% 14% 4% 9% 2% 3
13–24 Apr 2023 Survation Country Land and Business Association 1,017 41% 36% 13% 5% 4% 0% 5
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 58.9% 19.3% 16.6% 3.5% 0.6% 1.2% 39.6

"Conservative Celtic Fringe"

[edit]

YouGov produced a poll of seats in South West England that had elected a Conservative MP in every election since the 2015 general election and where a majority of voters were estimated to have voted to leave the European Union in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. They branded these seats the "Conservative Celtic Fringe".

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Ref. Green Other Lead
1–15 Jun 2022 YouGov N/A 813 38% 24% 22% 6% 8% 1% 14
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 56.7% 19.2% 19.1% 0.1% 3.0% 1.9% 37.5

"Sea Wall"

[edit]

YouGov conducted polls of voters in 108 coastal constituencies which they refer to as the "Sea Wall".

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con. Lab. Lib. Dems Green Ref. PC Other Lead
22–23 May 2024 YouGov Fabian Society/Channel 4 Not reported 20
17–18 Jan 2024 YouGov Fabian Society N/A 21% 52% N/A N/A 14% N/A N/A 31
21–23 Nov 2022 YouGov Fabian Society 631 32% 38% 9% 21% 6
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 51.2% 29.2% 11.4% 2.6% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 22.0

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ The question asked was "If there were a general election tomorrow, which political party do you think you would be most likely to support?".[8]
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Notional result[28]
  3. ^ Jonathan Edwards was the incumbent MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, elected as a Plaid MP. He was suspended from the party after being arrested for domestic assault.[21] He did not run in the 2024 election.
  4. ^ a b c d e f Poll conducted based on the previous boundaries for this constituency, not the boundaries used at the general election
  5. ^ Nigel Farage as candidate
  6. ^ Corbyn stood for the Labour Party in the 2019 election.
  7. ^ These are: Bournemouth East, Chelsea and Fulham, Cheltenham, Chingford and Woodford Green, Chippenham, Chipping Barnet, Cities of London and Westminster, Colchester, Esher and Walton, Filton and Bradley Stoke, Finchley and Golders Green, Guildford, Harrow East, Hendon, Henley, Hitchin and Harpenden, Lewes, Milton Keynes North, Milton Keynes South, Mole Valley, Reading West, Romsey and Southampton North, South Cambridgeshire, South East Cambridgeshire, South West Surrey, St Ives, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton Deane, Thornbury and Yate, Totnes, Truro and Falmouth, Tunbridge Wells, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Wantage, Watford, Wells, West Dorset, Wimbledon, Winchester, Woking, Wokingham, and Wycombe.

References

[edit]
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  4. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 17 June 2024. Retrieved 17 June 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  5. ^ "Latest poll suggests DUP support down by a third since 2019". Belfast Telegraph. 2024-05-25. Retrieved 2024-05-25.
  6. ^ Manley, John (2024-03-11). "Sinn Féin on course for record performance in Westminster election". The Irish News. Archived from the original on 13 March 2024. Retrieved 2023-03-14.
  7. ^ Manley, John (2023-11-13). "Sinn Féin on course to break Westminster record". The Irish News. Archived from the original on 2023-11-13. Retrieved 2023-11-13.
  8. ^ "Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2023 Questionnaire CAWI (online)" (PDF). ARK - Access Research Knowledge. p. 58. Archived (PDF) from the original on 8 June 2024. Retrieved 16 May 2024.
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  21. ^ Youle, Richard (2023-01-18). "MP who accepted domestic assault caution may stand against Plaid". Wales Online. Archived from the original on 1 February 2024. Retrieved 2024-02-01.
  22. ^ Sommerlad, Joe (30 May 2024). "Jon Stewart calls rejection of UK candidate for liking one of his sketches 'dumbest thing since Boris Johnson's". The Independent. London. Archived from the original on 30 May 2024. Retrieved 30 May 2024.
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  33. ^ Akehurst, Steve (21 October 2021). "The 'Blue Wall'". Strong Message Here. Retrieved 21 October 2021.[permanent dead link‍]
  34. ^ English, Patrick (30 July 2021). "Conservative vote share down 8pts in 'Blue Wall', with party potentially losing up to 16 seats". YouGov. Archived from the original on 30 July 2021. Retrieved 5 October 2021.
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