2025 Hamburg state election

2025 Hamburg state election

2 March 2025
All 123 seats in the Hamburg Parliament 62 seats needed for a majority
First party Second party Third party   Party SPD Greens CDU Last election 54 seats, 39.2% 33 seats, 24.2% 15 seats, 11.2%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Party Left AfD FDP Last election 13 seats, 9.1% 7 seats, 5.3% 1 seats, 4.9%
Government before election Second Tschentscher senate SPD–Green Government after election TBD

The next election to the Hamburg Parliament is scheduled for 2 March 2025.

Background

In 2020, the SPD came first, losing four seats but coming ahead of the Greens by a large margin. The Greens almost doubled their share of the vote. The CDU achieved its worst ever result in a Hamburg general election, with 11.2 percent, while the left took 9.1 percent, its best. The AfD just managed to get back in with 5.3 percent of the votes.

The FDP, on the other hand, fell just short of the five percent hurdle with 4.96 percent and missed out on entering parliament for the first time since 2008. However, because of a direct mandate from its top candidate, Anna-Elisabeth von Treuenfels-Frowein, in the Blankenese constituency, the FDP was represented by a non-attached member of parliament. Another member, Sami Musa, joined in January 2022, bringing the number of FDP seats to two, after leaving the SPD in September 2021. The party was reduced to a single seat when von Treuenfels-Frowein defected to the CDU in 2024.

The Second Tschentscher senate was formed as a red–green coalition.

Opinion polls

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	Grüne	CDU	Linke	AfD	FDP	Volt	BSW	Others	Lead
Trend Research Hamburg	5–10 Dec 2024	886	32	20	17	7	10	4	3	4	4	12
Infratest dimap	20–25 Nov 2024	1,177	30	21	19	6	9	3	3	4	8	9
Forsa	24–28 Oct 2024	1,017	30	21	21	5	8	4	–	4	7	11
EP election	9 Jun 2024	–	18.7	21.2	18.4	5.1	8.0	7.0	5.9	4.9	9.7	2.5
Wahlkreisprognose	15–25 Apr 2024	1,304	32	21.5	18	6	8.5	3.5	–	2	8.5	10.5
Infratest dimap	1–5 Feb 2024	1,164	30	21	20	7	9	5	–	–	8	9
Trend Research Hamburg	17–24 Oct 2023	1,068	31	19	18	10	14	4	–	–	4	12
Wahlkreisprognose	24 Sep–2 Oct 2023	1,000	24.5	21.5	21	8.5	13	3	–	–	8.5	3
Wahlkreisprognose	9–16 Sep 2022	950	32	27	15	8	7	6	–	–	5	5
Wahlkreisprognose	24–29 Jan 2022	1,000	40	26.5	10	6	5	7	–	–	5.5	13.5
2021 federal election	26 Sep 2021	–	29.7	24.9	15.4	6.7	5.0	11.4	0.5	–	6.9	4.8
pmg – policy matters	2–11 Jun 2020	1,020	37	23	13	10	6	5	–	–	4	14
2020 state election	23 Feb 2020	–	39.2	24.2	11.2	9.1	5.3	4.9	1.3	–	4.8	15.0