2020 United States Senate election in Alaska
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Sullivan: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Gross: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70-80% >80% Tie: 40–50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Alaska |
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the nationwide presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Al Gross, the son of Avrum Gross, who ran as an independent candidate.[2] John Wayne Howe, the nominee of the Alaskan Independence Party, was also on the ballot and finished a distant third.
Both primaries took place on August 18, 2020.[3] Some pundits considered this to be a potential "dark horse" flip for the Democrats, as Gross did unexpectedly well[4] in polling despite Alaska usually being considered a Republican stronghold, even leading in some polls.[5] However, this lead did not materialize. Sullivan won re-election by a margin of 12.7%, triple his average lead in the pre-election polling. Sullivan also became the first candidate since 2002 to win a Senate election in Alaska with more than 50% of the vote.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Dan Sullivan, incumbent U.S. senator[6]
Withdrawn
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Dan Sullivan
U.S. federal officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[9]
Individuals
- Mark Levin, conservative talk radio host[10]
Primary results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dan Sullivan (incumbent) | 65,257 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 65,257 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian–Democratic–Independence primary
[edit]Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, the Alaska Libertarian Party, and the Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017, the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[12]
Democratic candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Al Gross (independent), orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, and son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross[1]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Edgar Blatchford (Democratic), Democratic candidate in the 2016 election for the U.S. Senate, founder and former editor and publisher of Alaska Newspapers, Inc., former mayor of Seward (1999–2003) and former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development[8]
- Chris Cumings (independent), Democratic candidate in the 2018 election for Alaska's at-large congressional district and ex-bank employee[13][8]
Disqualified from the ballot
[edit]Withdrawn
[edit]- David Darden (independent), nonpartisan candidate for Anchorage Assembly District 3 Seat E in the 2018 special election[8]
Alaskan Independence candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- John Howe (Alaskan Independence), machinist[14]
Endorsements
[edit]Al Gross
Local officials
- Pete Buttigieg, 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and former mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020)[15]
Individuals
- Andrew Yang, Presidential Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship (2015–2017), 2020 Democratic presidential candidate[16]
Organizations
- 314 Action[17]
- Alaska Center[18]
- Alaska Democratic Party[19]
- DSCC[20]
- End Citizens United[21]
- Humanity Forward[16]
- J Street PAC[22]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[23]
- The Lincoln Project[24]
- Orthopaedic PAC[25]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[26]
Unions
Primary results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent | Al Gross | 50,047 | 79.87% | |
| Democratic | Edgar Blatchford | 5,463 | 8.72% | |
| Independence | John Howe | 4,165 | 6.65% | |
| Independent | Christopher Cumings | 2,989 | 4.77% | |
| Total votes | 62,664 | 100.00% | ||
Other candidates
[edit]Green Party
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Jed Whittaker, Green nominee in the 1996 United States Senate election in Alaska and salvage company owner (write-in candidate)[28][29]
Independent
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Sidney "Sid" Hill, Independent write-in candidate for the 2018 election in Alaska's at-large congressional district, Independent write-in candidate for the 2014 United States Senate election in Alaska and LaRouchite (write-in candidate)[28][29][30]
- Karen Nanouk (write-in candidate)[29]
Withdrawn
[edit]General election
[edit]Issues
[edit]Pebble Mine
[edit]Before the election, the Trump administration considered granting a permit for the construction of Pebble Mine, a copper, gold, and molybdenum mine in Bristol Bay.[33] Gross and Sullivan were both critical of the mine by August 2020, citing environmental concerns.[34][35] In September 2020, recordings were released in which executives Tom Collier and Ron Thiessen stated that Alaska's senators, including Sullivan, would not take any concrete steps to oppose the mine despite their stated opposition.[36] Gross used the recordings to attack Sullivan, claiming that Sullivan actually supported Pebble Mine. In response, Sullivan clarified his opposition to the mine.[37] The mine was a major topic during the Senate debate on October 10. In the debate, Gross attacked Sullivan for being insufficiently opposed to the mine, while Sullivan defended his opposition.[38]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[39] | Lean R | October 29, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[40] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[41] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[42] | Lean R | October 30, 2020 |
| DDHQ[43] | Lean R | November 3, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[44] | Lean R | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[46] | Lean R | October 23, 2020 |
| Politico[47] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
[edit]Dan Sullivan (R)
U.S. federal officials
- Lisa Murkowski, U.S. senator from Alaska (2002–present)[48]
- Tara Sweeney, Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Indian Affairs[49]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[9]
Organizations
Individuals
- Mark Levin, conservative talk radio host[10]
Labor unions
Newspapers
Al Gross (I)
U.S. senators
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California (2017–present), Democratic Party's nominee for vice president in the 2020 election[55]
- Chuck Schumer, U.S. senator from New York (1999–present), Senate Majority Leader (2020-present), Senate Minority Leader (2017–2020), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from New York's 9th congressional district (1993–1999), New York's 10th congressional district (1983–1993), New York's 16th congressional district (1981–1983)[56]
State executives
- Tony Knowles, Governor of Alaska (1994–2002), Mayor of Anchorage (1981–1987)[57]
Local officials
- Pete Buttigieg, 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and former mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020)[15]
Individuals
- Andrew Yang, Presidential Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship (2015–2017), 2020 Democratic presidential candidate[16]
Organizations
- 314 Action[17]
- Alaska Center[18]
- Alaska Democratic Party[19]
- Demand Universal Healthcare[58]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[59]
- DSCC[20]
- End Citizens United[21]
- Humanity Forward[16]
- J Street PAC[22]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[23]
- The Lincoln Project[24]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[60]
- Orthopaedic PAC[25]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[26]
Unions
Polls
[edit]Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Dan Sullivan (R) |
Al Gross (I) |
John Howe (AI) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing[62] | October 26–28, 2020 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | – | – | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[63][A] | October 19–20, 2020 | 800 (V) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 5% | – | 10% |
| Change Research (I)[64][B] | October 16–19, 2020 | 1,076 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 44% | 3% | – | 5% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[65] | October 9–14, 2020 | 423 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 45% | 37% | 10% | 2%[d] | 7%[e] |
| Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[66][B] | October 10–13, 2020 | 606 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 47% | – | – | – |
| Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[66][B] | October 2–6, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 46% | 46% | – | – | – |
| Patinkin Research Strategies[67] | September 30 – October 4, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 47% | – | 2%[f] | 5% |
| Alaska Survey Research[68] | September 26 – October 4, 2020 | 696 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | – | – | 8% |
| Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[69][C] | September 20–23, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 45% | – | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[70][1] | August 27–28, 2020 | 638 (V) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 43% | – | – | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[71][D] | July 7–8, 2020 | 1,081 (V) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 34% | – | – | 27% |
| Alaska Survey Research[72] | June 23 – July 7, 2020 | 663 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 40% | – | – | 7% |
Hypothetical polling
with Forrest Dunbar
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Dan Sullivan (R) |
Forrest Dunbar (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patinkin Research Strategies[73] | May 28 – Jun 4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | – | 39% | 39% | 22% |
with Forrest Dunbar as an independent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Dan Sullivan (R) |
Forrest Dunbar (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patinkin Research Strategies[73] | May 28 – June 4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | – | 42% | 40% | 19% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dan Sullivan (incumbent) | 191,112 | 53.90% | +5.94% | |
| Independent | Al Gross[a] | 146,068 | 41.19% | −4.64% | |
| Independence | John Howe | 16,806 | 4.74% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 601 | 0.17% | −0.32% | ||
| Total votes | 354,587 | 100.0% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
By state house district
[edit]By state house district
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Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Aleutians East Borough (largest city: Akutan)
- Aleutians West Census Area (largest city: Unalaska)
- Anchorage
- Denali Borough (largest city: Healy)
- Nome Census Area (largest city: Nome)
- North Slope Borough (largest city: Utqiaġvik)
- Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)
- Prince of Wales–Hyder Census Area (largest city: Craig)
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c Gross ran as an independent with the nomination of the Democratic Party, and was listed on the ballot as the Democratic nominee.[1]
- ^ Payment of filing fee was not made prior to the deadline.
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
- ^ Includes "Refused"
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Gross' campaign.
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Independent Alaska PAC, which has supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period.
- ^ Polling's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.
References
[edit]- ^ a b "Gross announces candidacy for Alaska US Senate seat". Associated Press. June 2, 2019.
- ^ Taylor, Jessica (June 12, 2020). "Alaska Senate Moves to Likely Republican". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 29, 2020.
- ^ "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov. Archived from the original on December 23, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
- ^ Burns, Katelyn (October 22, 2020). "Al Gross is hoping to ride Alaska's independent streak to the Senate". Vox. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
- ^ Nat Herz [@Nat_Herz] (October 18, 2020). "New Alaska poll by Patinkin Research Strategies (not sure who paid but they are doing work for Yes on 2 in AK) has Al Gross up 47–46 and Trump up 49–46 Unclear how exactly they included 3rd party candidates, which may account for difference bw this+recent NYT poll. #AKleg #AKsen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "SULLIVAN, DAN – Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
- ^ McCue, Dan (May 1, 2020). "Center for Politics Adds Alaska to Senate Battleground Map". TheWell News. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- ^ a b c d e "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov. June 5, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
- ^ a b "President Trump endorses Sullivan re-election as US senator for Alaska". KTUU. December 18, 2019. Retrieved December 30, 2019.
- ^ a b "Mark Levin Audio Rewind – 10/20/20". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
- ^ a b "Alaska Secretary of State's office: Election Summary Report – Official Results" (PDF).
- ^ Hertz, Nathaniel (April 4, 2018). "Independents can run in party primaries, Alaska Supreme Court says, opening door for Gov. Walker". Anchorage Daily News.
- ^ "Alaska – Senate". FEC. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
- ^ "John Wayne Howe, Alaskan Independence Party, runs for U.S. Senate". KTVF News. July 6, 2020.
- ^ a b "AK-Sen: Pete Buttigieg Jumps In To Help Dr. Al Gross (I) Take Away Moscow Mitch's Majority". Daily Kos.
- ^ a b c d "Humanity Forward Candidate Endorsements". Humanity Forward. Archived from the original on June 28, 2020. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
- ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates — 314actionfund". 314 Action. Archived from the original on April 4, 2020. Retrieved November 27, 2019.
- ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates- 2019 Anchorage Municipal Elections". Archived from the original on September 19, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
- ^ a b Quinn, Steve (October 11, 2019). "Alaska Democratic Party backs Gross for US Senate". KTVA. Archived from the original on October 14, 2019. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
- ^ a b "DSCC Endorses Dr. Al Gross in Alaska Senate Race". DSCC. December 3, 2019.
- ^ a b Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.
- ^ a b "Al Gross (I, AK Sen)". J Street PAC. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ a b "2020 Endorsements". Archived from the original on July 26, 2020. Retrieved July 26, 2020.
- ^ a b "Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project". Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project. July 29, 2020.
- ^ a b "AAOS Now October 2019: OrthoPAC Endorses AAOS Member Al Gross, MD, for U.S. Senate". www.aaos.org.
- ^ a b "2020 Endorsements". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Archived from the original on April 12, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2020.
- ^ a b "Communications Workers of America Endorses Al Gross (AK) for US Senate". Communications Workers of America. June 11, 2020.
- ^ a b "Alaska". Politics1. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
- ^ a b c "November 3, 2020 General Election Candidate List". www.elections.alaska.gov. October 29, 2020. Archived from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2020.
- ^ Maguire, Sean (August 14, 2020). "Meet Alaska's candidates for the U.S. Senate ahead of the Aug. 18 primaries". KTUU. Retrieved August 21, 2020.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (May 11, 2019). "Sen. Sullivan has his first challenger: a Bernie supporter". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- ^ "Identification Number: C00705293" (PDF). FEC. May 29, 2019. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
- ^ Ruskin, Liz (November 25, 2020). "Trump Administration Rejects Pebble Mine Project In Alaska". NPR. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
- ^ Laine, Welch (June 30, 2020). "Alaska salmon: Bristol Bay opens with Pebble Mine decision pending". National Fisherman. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
- ^ DeMarban, Alex (August 24, 2020). "Pebble mine would cause 'significant degradation' in Bristol Bay region and can't be permitted as proposed, Trump administration says". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
- ^ DeMarban, Alex (September 22, 2020). "In recordings, Pebble executives discuss influence with Gov. Mike Dunleavy and one day expanding the mine". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
- ^ DeMarban, Alex; Wieber, Aubrey (September 25, 2020). "Sen. Sullivan says 'No Pebble mine' following release of secretly recorded videos of company executives and criticism by Gross". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
- ^ Wieber, Aubrey (October 11, 2020). "Sullivan and Gross battled it out on fisheries, Pebble Mine and Outside money in debut U.S. Senate debate". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
- ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ Senator Murkowski: More Than Ever
- ^ Sweeney, Tara (October 25, 2020). "Sullivan has been a champion for rural Alaska". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved October 16, 2021.
- ^ "BSNC Endorses Dan Sullivan for United States Senate". Bering Straits. August 18, 2020.
- ^ "PAEC Issues First Endorsements in 2020 General Election". Calista Corporation. Archived from the original on September 21, 2020. Retrieved August 23, 2020.
- ^ "U.S. Chamber Endorses Dan Sullivan for U.S. Senate Representing Alaska". U.S. Chamber of Commerce. July 20, 2020.
- ^ "Press Release: International Union of Operating Engineers Endorses Senator Dan Sullivan for Re-election – Dan Sullivan for Alaska". dansullivanforalaska.com. Archived from the original on August 9, 2020. Retrieved August 23, 2020.
- ^ Anchorage Daily News editorial board (October 31, 2020). "Sen. Dan Sullivan is best poised to represent Alaska's interests". Anchorage Daily News.
- ^ Buxton, Matt (August 12, 2020). "Before joining Democratic ticket, Kamala Harris endorsed Al Gross for U.S. Senate". The Midnight Sun.
- ^ "Home – AL GROSS – FIGHTING TO FLIP ALASKA BLUE". Archived from the original on December 5, 2020. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
- ^ Knowles, Tony (October 19, 2020). "Dr. Al Gross: Independent for U.S. Senator". Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman.
- ^ "DUH/PEP website". duh4all.org.
- ^ "Our Endorsements". DMFI PAC.
- ^ "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 14 for House, Senate". nrdcactionfund.org. September 3, 2020.
- ^ "PACE Recommendations". NEA-Alaska. Archived from the original on November 1, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2020.
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ Change Research (I)
- ^ Siena College/NYT Upshot
- ^ a b Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)
- ^ Patinkin Research Strategies
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ a b Patinkin Research Strategies
- ^ "2020 General Election – Election Summary Report – Official Results" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved December 2, 2020.
- ^ "Alaska Senate Election Results 2020". National Election Pool. NBC News. March 31, 2021. Retrieved January 23, 2022.
Further reading
[edit]- Amber Phillips (October 9, 2020), "The Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November", Washingtonpost.com
External links
[edit]- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Alaska", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Alaska: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Alaska". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Alaska at Ballotpedia
Official campaign websites