User talk:Ekpyros
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Beccaynr (talk) 16:33, 28 February 2024 (UTC)
Clarification on Gaza strip famine comment
[edit]Hi Ekpyros, thanks for your comment on the independent source in the Gaza strip famine page I appreciated it; I would support your comment there but I don't have extended confirmation yet so oh well (much of that Talk page is very disturbing). However, I did want to bring up a caveat that should probably be more prominently acknowledged in your reply about food truck counts pre-war. Pre-war a good chunk (debated how much) of food production was domestic, whereas this is now substantially less. There's disagreement over exactly how many trucks are needed and it's certainly nowhere near 500 (my guess from hunger statistics is around 120-150 which was satisfied since January except for February), but probably best to clarify this in your comment. I know you mention it briefly but probably more balanced/makes it easier to discuss if you emphasize it a little more. Scienceturtle1 (talk) 04:37, 5 July 2024 (UTC)
- @Scienceturtle1: thanks so much—I very much appreciate your thoughtful response!
- I haven't seen any data on the number of trucks required to avert famine, only comparisons to the prior number, along with some disgraceful misinformation such as being propagated on the Talk page. That said, I can only imagine the daily caloric requirements to stave off deaths is significantly lower than the total daily calories available prewar (the combined domestic production plus foreign aid)—but have no way to know whether the drop in domestic production, coupled with the increase in food trucks, was greater than the reduction from prewar numbers to those needed to avoid famine.
- I would be curious to read any data on it—and would only note that this recent paper asserts that from Jan-May 2024, total aid deliveries alone have not only been more than enough to prevent famine, but have resulted in a surplus beyond what's needed to sustain a healthy caloric intake on a per-capita basis (emphasis mine):
- ::"Data from January-April 2024 show[s]... [t]he crude mean per capita per day energy supplied was 3,374 kcal, protein was 101 gr (12.1% of energy), fat was 80.6 gr (21.5% of energy), and iron was 25.2 mg. Energy, protein, and fat amounts exceed Sphere recommendations… During [May]… the daily per capita supply of energy was 4,198 kcal, protein was 124 gr (11.8% of energy), fat was 71.6 gr (15.4% of energy), and iron was 30.3 mg."
- Do you have any numbers which would contradict those—or help shed light on the issue more broadly? Again, warm thanks for reaching out! Ekpyros (talk) 06:49, 5 July 2024 (UTC)
- I think even conservative estimates using only UN-counted trucks (albeit still much more reasonable in April than May) have found that there was a surplus of total calories then - see https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/documents/IPC_Famine_Review_Committee_Report_FEWS_NET_Gaza_4June2024.pdf - see table on page 10. In fact, this document even tracks specifically trucks that reached North Gaza, where the food shortage was the worst until late April/May. The paper you cited likely uses fuller numbers, but might not reflect food that's realistically distributed and also there is an out-of-proportion revulsion to citing Israeli research on that page.
- Further, hunger has declined continuously since a peak in December, with deaths seeming to have a delayed tragic peak of 37 (media-reported) deaths in March before falling off since then to near 0. Since January though there have been well over 100 trucks/day entering Gaza, and by March/April/May this number was well over 200 trucks/day when one uses even third party estimates of commercial trucks entering Gaza. This is just to say, there is a convergence of evidence that enough food is crossing Gaza's border to prevent famine since January (perhaps excepting February). Whether or not complete food distribution is being made possible is of course another question. But calling that study fringe is just wrong so I'm glad you are saying something. On the other hand, it's unfortunate its analysis hasn't been published which I think is a more valid reason to treat it cautiously and more like a POV than a finding. Scienceturtle1 (talk) 07:12, 5 July 2024 (UTC)
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