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Spillover of the Myanmar civil war (2021–present)

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Myanmar civilians fleeing to Thailand during the siege of Myawaddy.

The ongoing Myanmar civil war has had an impact on neighbouring countries. Refugees and junta officials have fled into Bangladesh, India and Thailand. Territorial violations of Bangladeshi territory, such as artillery strikes and firing at vessels near St. Martin's Island, have caused border tensions. In India, the conflict also contributed to the 2023–2024 Manipur violence.

Bangladesh

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The Bangladesh-Myanmar border

The spillover of the Myanmar civil war has particularly been a cause of concern to Bangladesh. Beyond the influx of refugees from renewed violence on the border, the rise of the non-state actor Arakan Army created concerns about Rohingya repatriation.[1]

Background

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Further information: Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh

The Rohingya genocide led to around 1 million Rohingya refugees fleeing to Bangladesh. In the first week of September 2020, Bangladeshi forces reported that the Tatmadaw started amassing troops and doing unusual buildups in three different locations on the Bangladesh–Myanmar border. As a consequence, Bangladesh's foreign minister summoned Myanmar's ambassador, calling for him to desist from such activities and to work for mutually beneficial relations between the two countries.[2] As a result, Bangladesh revealed that is ready to face any situation, deploying the 34 Border Guard Bangladesh battalion on the border with Myanmar. This battalion asked their counterparts to arrange a flag meeting but they received no response.[3]

History

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Multiple Tatmadaw artillery strikes have accidentally ended up in Bangladesh territory over the course of the war.[4]

In August 2022, Bangladesh strongly protested territorial violations when two Myanmar Army mortar shells hit a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh and when a junta helicopter entered Bangladeshi airspace and fired a shell.[5] Aung Kyaw Moe, the ambassador of Myanmar to Bangladesh, was summoned by the Bangladesh ministry of foreign affairs four times in 2022 due to multiple violations of Bangladesh's airspace in the Naikhongchhari border area by the Myanmar Army.[6]

On 3 February 2024, intensifying clashes between the Arakan Army and Tatmadaw in Rakhine state led to mortar shells and bullets landing in Bangladesh, injuring civilians and prompting local villagers to flee. Bangladeshi authorities closed schools and madrasas in border villages. As tensions increased, Bangladesh strengthened the Bangladesh Police and Bangladesh Coast Guard to be stationed to resist any intrusion through the borders.[7] Three hundred and twenty-seven Myanmar Border Guard Police personnel sought refuge in Bangladesh, where they were disarmed and sheltered by the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB).[8] Two days later, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina instructed the Bangladesh Armed Forces and BGB to have patience regarding the situation in Myanmar.[9] On 7 February BGB Director Mohammad Ashrafuzzaman Siddiqui recommended suspending the naval route to St. Martin's Island in Bangladesh due to the increasing border tensions,[10] accordingly, sea travel to St. Martin's Island is indefinitely closed down by the district administration of Cox's Bazar from 10 February.[11] On 8 February 2024, the Tatmadaw agreed to send a ship to take back the stranded BGP personnel in Bangladesh.[12]

On 9 December 2024, Arakan Army captured all of the Burmese military outposts and seized control of all of the Myanmar's border with Bangladesh.[13] With this victory, the AA now controls all three Burmese townships bordering Bangladesh: Maungdaw, Buthidaung, and Paletwa. In the aftermath of the Maungdaw battle, the AA arrested Brigadier General Thurein Tun and approximately 80 Rohingya militants.[14]

St. Martin Crisis

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During June 2024, Myanmar Navy vessels reportedly fired at boats traveling near St. Martin's Island.[15] However, it soon became unclear whether the shots came from Arakan Army or the Myanmar military.[16][17] Due to the firing, the island's population faces a food shortage.[18]

India

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Main article: Involvement of Northeast Indian insurgents in the Myanmar civil war
See also: Chin theater

The renewed ethnic conflict, particularly in Chin state, has fueled the displacement of many into India. On 22 September 2021, after the Battle of Thantlang, nearly 8,000 residents of Thantlang, Chin state, fled to Mizoram, India after houses were set ablaze by the junta army.[19]

On January 10 and 12, 2023, Myanmar Air Force carried out airstrikes with one Yak-130 and two MiG-29[20] targeting Camp Victoria, the Chin National Army (CNA)'s headquarters, near the India-Myanmar border. Five CNA soldiers were killed, at least 10 were injured and some buildings were damaged. The air attacks violated Indian airspace and soil, according to the CNF, local Mizo organizations, and the international research and advocacy organization Fortify Rights.[21] The Chin Human Rights Organization (CHRO) states that at least 200 Chin refugees crossed the border later the week following the airstrikes by Myanmar Army.[22]

Later in March 2023, the Chinland Defence Force of Matupi engaged in attacks near Paletwa Township. CDF Paletwa assured that on 15 March 2023, Assam Rifles entered Paletwa township and fired gunshots.[23] However, the Assam Rifles denied, saying its soldiers were engaged in “routine border point verification inside the Indian territory."[24]

Indo-Burmese Border at Rikhawdar, Chin State

On 14 November 2023, the CNA and local CDF forces attacked the Myanmar Army's border guard outpost in Rikhawdar, Falam Township, a hub for border trade with India. The junta responded with air assaults using a jet fighter,[25] to flee into Mizoram, India.[26] A total of 43 Myanmar Army soldiers crossed the India-Myanmar border and sought refuge from the Indian police.[27] They were handed to the Myanmar officials by the Indian authorities through the Moreh-Tamu border.[28] Two days later, residents who had fled to India returned.[29]

In late December 2023 and January 2024, fierce fighting in the Rakhine offensive (2023-present), 276 Myanmar army soldiers, with their arms, entered India surrendering to Indian authorities.[30] Because of the influx of refugees and junta soldiers, the Indian government decided to fence the 1,000 miles (1,600 km) border with Myanmar,.[31]

Impact on Manipuri conflict

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Analysts cite the Myanmar civil war as one of many instigating factors for the increased ethnic violence in Manipur. Drug trafficking and the junta's use of aerial bombing and napalm has destabilized the border region.[32] India expressed its concern to the junta about its military actions near its sensitive northeastern region in the wake of a massive exodus of refugees into India. In July 2023, there were an estimated 50,000 refugees who had fled to India.[33] These refugees reportedly include many ex-security forces.[34] Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah stated that the influx of Kuki people from Myanmar created insecurity amongst the Meitei people of Manipur and triggered the violence. According to ground reports, many refugees also brought arms with them and instigated drug turf wars.[35]

While the Myanmar refugees are given familial treatment with compassion to take shelter by the state government of Mizoram, the Manipur government's view on the matter is somewhat divergent.[36][37] The Zo-Kuki demographic dominates Manipur's Churachandpur district which borders the state of Mizoram, and the dominant Mizos have strong ethnic relations with each other and with the Kukis of Myanmar. While Chief Minister Zoramthanga of Mizoram, under his governance, showed a sense of compassion towards refugees including ex-forces of Myanmar, at least some Zo-Kuki in Manipur are not happy with the attitude of Manipur government, under the leadership of Chief Minister N. Biren Singh, towards them who are, if not together, in the proximity of Myanmar immigrants.[38][39]

Thailand

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On 5 April 2024, the junta garrison in Myawaddy surrendered to the KNLA, allowing anti-junta forces to take the border town.[40] During the capture of Myawaddy, certain junta officials fled into Thailand. The junta requested Thailand for a military flight from Mae Sot to evacuate said officials and others awaiting refuge on the border.[41]

The conflict has also contributed to a rise in malaria along the Myanmar–Thailand border.[42]

On 30 November 2024, the Myanmar Navy opened fire on Thai fishing boats after allegedly intruding on Myanmar waters. One fisherman drowned, two were injured, and 31 crew members were detained.[43] [44]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "'Myanmar war spillover may turn into a national security threat for Bangladesh'". The Business Standard. 2024-02-06. Retrieved 2024-03-29.
  2. ^ Aparajita Banerjee (13 September 2020). "Myanmar deploys Army troops on Bangladesh border". The Bangladesh Defence Analyst. Bangladesh. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved 13 March 2021.
  3. ^ Aparajta Banerjee (15 September 2020). "Bangladesh prepared to face any situation against Myanmar". The Bangladesh Defence Analyst. Bangladesh. Archived from the original on April 9, 2023. Retrieved 13 March 2021.
  4. ^ "Explosions rattle Myanmar border". The Business Standard. 2024-03-29. Retrieved 2024-03-29.
  5. ^ "Dhaka summons Myanmar ambassador again, protests land, airspace violation". The Daily Star. Dhaka. 19 September 2022. Archived from the original on 19 October 2022. Retrieved 19 October 2022.
  6. ^ "Another chapter in Bangladesh-Myanmar relations". Archived from the original on October 7, 2022. Retrieved 2022-10-03.
  7. ^ Alamgir, Nur Uddin (February 2024). "Tension mounts as war rages on BD-Myanmar frontier". Daily Sun. Archived from the original on 5 February 2024. Retrieved 5 February 2024.
  8. ^ "63 more border guards of Myanmar enter Bangladesh". Prothom Alo English. 7 February 2024. Archived from the original on March 9, 2024. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  9. ^ "PM for patience regarding war-like situation in Myanmar: Law minister". The Business Standard. 5 February 2024. Archived from the original on February 5, 2024. Retrieved 5 February 2024.
  10. ^ "BGB chief suggests suspension of ship movement to St Martin amid Myanmar border conflict". The Business Standard. 7 February 2024. Archived from the original on February 9, 2024. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  11. ^ "অনির্দিষ্টকালের জন্য সেন্টমার্টিন ভ্রমণে নিষেধাজ্ঞা". NTV Online. 8 February 2024. Archived from the original on February 24, 2024. Retrieved 8 February 2024.
  12. ^ Hasib, Nurul Islam (8 February 2024). "Myanmar sending ship to take back BGP members from Bangladesh". Dhaka Tribune. Archived from the original on February 8, 2024. Retrieved 8 February 2024.
  13. ^ https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/09/asia/myanmar-arakan-army-bangladesh-border-intl-hnk/index.html
  14. ^ Irrawaddy, The (2024-12-09). "AA Takes Complete Control of Myanmar-Bangladesh Border After Seizing Maungdaw". The Irrawaddy. Retrieved 2024-12-09.
  15. ^ Sporadic gunfire from Myanmar isolates St Martin’s Island from mainland. Deutsche Welle. June 12, 2024
  16. ^ Myanmar’s Conflict Reaches the Doorstep of Bangladesh’s Saint Martin’s Island. The Diplomat. Saqlain Rizve. June 18, 2024
  17. ^ Saint Martin's situation certainly calls for counter response. Prothom Alo. June 16, 2024. M Sakhawat Hossain
  18. ^ St Martin’s running out of supplies. The Daily Star. June 14, 2024 Mokammel Shuvo.
  19. ^ "Myanmar: Whole town flees amid fierce fighting". BBC. 22 September 2021. Archived from the original on 22 September 2021.
  20. ^ "Five killed in junta airstrike on Chin resistance force headquarters near Myanmar-India border". Myanmar Now. January 12, 2023.
  21. ^ "Fears of escalation after Myanmar air raids near India border". Al Jazeera.
  22. ^ "Refugees Flee to India Amid Military Airstrikes in Myanmar". VOA News. January 18, 2023.
  23. ^ Web Master. "Assam Rifles fired ten gunshots after entering Paletwa township". www.narinjara.com. Retrieved 2023-10-28.
  24. ^ Hasnat, Karishma (2023-03-15). "'Routine verification' — Assam Rifles deny they crossed border after Myanmar media outlet posts photos". ThePrint. Retrieved 2023-10-28.
  25. ^ "Chin Resistance Routs Myanmar Junta in Second Indian Border Town". The Irrawaddy.
  26. ^ "Myanmar ethnic alliance fighters attack border outposts as civilians flee". Al Jazeera. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
  27. ^ "Myanmar fighting intensifies near India border, curfew imposed in Sittwe". Al Jazeera. Retrieved November 14, 2023.
  28. ^ "39 Myanmar soldiers return home through Moreh border". Times of India. Retrieved November 15, 2023.
  29. ^ "After battle with junta, Myanmar rebels take control of border point with India". Reuters. Retrieved November 15, 2023.
  30. ^ "More Myanmar Soldiers Enter Mizoram Amid Conflict with Armed Ethnic Group".
  31. ^ "India-Myanmar border to be fenced soon, says Home Minister Amit Shah". The Hindu. 20 January 2024.
  32. ^ Mehta, Ashok K. "Manipur conflict rages on amid Myanmar civil war". The Tribune.
  33. ^ "India Asks Myanmar to Avoid Actions That Aggravate Border Situation". The Wire. 16 July 2023.
  34. ^ Bismee Taskin (2021-03-21). "'If we don't obey, they shoot us' — why many Myanmar policemen are escaping to India". ThePrint.
  35. ^ Seneviratne, Kalinga (9 December 2023). "Myanmar's Civil War Blowing Up India's Act East Policy". In Depth New.
  36. ^ Bismee Taskin; Pia Krishnankutty (2021-03-24). "Why Mizoram sees Myanmar refugees as 'family' — close ethnic ties that have survived a border". ThePrint.
  37. ^ Bikash Singh (2023-07-26). "Two North Eastern states – Manipur and Mizoram – have divergent views on Myanmar refugees". The Economic Times. ISSN 0013-0389.
  38. ^ "8 Myanmar nationals with bullet injuries in Manipur hospital spark allegations of illegal influx". India Today NE. 2023-07-11.
  39. ^ "Assam Rifles Says Myanmar Nationals With Bullet Injuries Not Involved in Manipur Violence". The Wire.
  40. ^ Myanmar military loses border town in another big defeat. April 6, 2024. BBC. Jonathan Head. Archived April 6, 2024, at the Wayback Machine
  41. ^ "Myanmar Army in Myawaddy Asks Thailand to Shelter its Officials". Khaosod. 8 April 2024.
  42. ^ Frontier (2023-07-17). "Conflict shoots up malaria cases on the Thai-Myanmar border". Frontier Myanmar. Retrieved 2024-07-27.
  43. ^ Thailand protests Myanmar's navy firing at Thai fishing boats Reuters. Panu Wongcha-um and Sonali Paul. December 1, 2024
  44. ^ 31 crew from Thai boats 'taken into Myanmar' Bangkok Post and Reuters. November 30, 2024 Archived December 1, 2024, at the Wayback Machine
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