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Pre-2012 statewide opinion polling for the 2012 United States presidential election

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Statewide polls for the 2012 United States presidential election are as follows. The polls listed here, by state, are from 2009 to December 31, 2011, and provide early data on opinion polling between a possible Republican candidate against incumbent President Barack Obama.

Note that some states did not conduct polling before December 31, 2011.

Arizona

[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 55%–44%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[1] November 17–20, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Herman Cain 42% 4 500 RV ±4.4%
Barack Obama 45% Newt Gingrich 45% Tied
Barack Obama 43% Ron Paul 44% 1
Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 40% 7
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 49% 7
BRC/Rocky Mountain Poll[2] October 13–24, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Herman Cain 38% 7 581 RV ±4.1%
45% Mitt Romney 40% 5
44% Rick Perry 38% 6
Public Policy Polling[3] April 28 – May 1, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 40% 7 623 RV ±3.9%
46% Mike Huckabee 44% 2
49% Sarah Palin 38% 11
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 48% 4
Barack Obama 48% Donald Trump 36% 12
Public Policy Polling[4] January 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 46% Tied 599 RV ±4.0%
Barack Obama 44% Mike Huckabee 48% 4
Barack Obama 49% Sarah Palin 41% 8
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 49% 6
Public Policy Polling[5] September 18–21, 2009 Barack Obama 47% Sarah Palin 47% Tied 617 RV ±3.9%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 49% 4
43% Mitt Romney 50% 7

Arkansas

[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–45%
(Republican in 2008) 59%–39%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Talk Business/Hendrix College[6] September 15, 2011 Barack Obama 33.5% Mitt Romney 49.5% 16 2,101 RV ±2.1%

California

[edit]

55 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–37%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)[7] November 15–27, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 40% 10 1,000 RV ±3.1%
55% Newt Gingrich 35% 20
Public Policy Polling[8] November 10–13, 2011 Barack Obama 60% Michele Bachmann 31% 29 500 RV ±4.4%
61% Herman Cain 32% 29
60% Newt Gingrich 34% 26
57% Ron Paul 32% 25
60% Rick Perry 31% 29
57% Mitt Romney 36% 21
Survey USA[9]
 November 10, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 32% 24 800 A ±3.5%
50% Mitt Romney 39% 11
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)[10] September 1–12, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 38% 13 1,001 RV ±3.2%
54% Rick Perry 35% 19
L.A. Times/USC Dornsife/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[11] August 17–28, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Rick Perry 32% 24 1,408 RV ±4%
57% Michele Bachmann 31% 26
54% Mitt Romney 35% 19
Public Policy Polling[12] January 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 58% Newt Gingrich 34% 24 892 RV ±3.3%
54% Mike Huckabee 39% 15
62% Sarah Palin 31% 31
56% Mitt Romney 36% 20

Colorado

[edit]

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[13] December 1–4, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 42% 8 793 ±3.5%
52% Herman Cain 36% 16
48% Ron Paul 39% 9
52% Rick Perry 37% 15
47% Mitt Romney 45% 2
Public Policy Polling[14] August 4–7, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Michele Bachmann 39% 12 510 ±4.3%
51% Herman Cain 35% 16
54% Sarah Palin 38% 16
51% Rick Perry 38% 13
48% Mitt Romney 41% 7
Public Policy Polling[15] February 4–6, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Newt Gingrich 39% 14 517 ±4.3%
51% Mike Huckabee 42% 9
55% Sarah Palin 36% 19
47% Mitt Romney 41% 6

Connecticut

[edit]

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[16] September 22–25, 2011 Barack Obama 55% Michele Bachmann 36% 19 592 RV ±4.0%
54% Newt Gingrich 38% 16
53% Rick Perry 41% 12
47% Mitt Romney 45% 2
Quinnipiac University[17] September 8–13, 2011 Barack Obama 52% Rick Perry 33% 19 1,230 RV ±2.8%
49% Mitt Romney 36% 13

Florida

[edit]

29 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 51%–48%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
NBC News/Marist College[18] December 4–7, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 41% 7 2,119 ±2.1%
51% Newt Gingrich 39% 12
49% Ron Paul 36% 13
Quinnipiac University[19] November 28 – December 5, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 45% 3 1,226 ±2.8%
Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 44% 2
Public Policy Polling[20] November 28 – December 1, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 700 ±3.7%
50% Newt Gingrich 44% 6
51% Herman Cain 37% 14
46% Rick Perry 40% 6
50% Ron Paul 38% 12
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research[21] November 17, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 46% 4 500 LV ±4.5%
Barack Obama 46% Herman Cain 37% 9
45% Newt Gingrich 43% 2
Quinnipiac University[22] October 31 – November 7, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Herman Cain 41% 4 1,185 RV ±2.9%
45% Newt Gingrich 42% 3
46% Rick Perry 40% 6
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 45% 3
Suffolk University[23] October 26–30, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Herman Cain 39% 3 800 RV Not reported
46% Rick Perry 34% 8
44% Ron Paul 32% 12
45% Newt Gingrich 38% 7
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 42% Tied
NBC News/Marist College[24] October 10–12, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Herman Cain 41% 6 2,225 ±2.1%
47% Rick Perry 39% 8
45% Mitt Romney 43% 2
Public Policy Polling[25] September 22–25, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 44% 5 476 ±4.5%
50% Newt Gingrich 42% 8
45% Ron Paul 44% 1
50% Rick Perry 43% 7
46% Mitt Romney 45% 1
Quinnipiac University[26] September 14–19, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Rick Perry 42% 2 1,007 ±3.1%
Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 47% 7
Quinnipiac University[27] August 1–2, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 38% 12 743 RV ±3.6%
53% Sarah Palin 34% 19
44% Rick Perry 39% 5
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied
Quinnipiac University[27] July 27–31, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 36% 14 674 RV ±3.8%
54% Sarah Palin 33% 21
49% Rick Perry 36% 13
46% Mitt Romney 41% 5
Sunshine State News/Voter Survey Service[28] July 5–7, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 46% 4 1,000 LV ±3.10%
Public Policy Polling[29] June 16–19, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 40% 9 848 RV ±3.4%
48% Herman Cain 37% 11
52% Sarah Palin 40% 12
48% Tim Pawlenty 40% 8
47% Mitt Romney 43% 4
Suffolk University/7 News[30] April 10–12, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 43% 1 600 RV ±4.0%
Barack Obama 44% Mike Huckabee 41% 3
41% Tim Pawlenty 28% 13
45% Michele Bachmann 30% 15
47% Newt Gingrich 36% 11
52% Sarah Palin 34% 18
49% Donald Trump 34% 15
47% Haley Barbour 26% 17
48% Ron Paul 30% 18
Ron Sachs Communications/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research[31] April 4–7, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 48% 5 800 RV ±3.5%
44% Mike Huckabee 49% 5
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 39% 12
48% Donald Trump 40% 8
Public Policy Polling[32] March 24–27, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 42% 8 500 RV ±4.4%
50% Mike Huckabee 43% 7
52% Sarah Palin 39% 13
46% Mitt Romney 44% 2
48% Jeb Bush 45% 3
48% Rudy Giuliani 42% 6
Public Policy Polling[33] December 17–20, 2010 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 42% 5 1,034 RV ±3.0%
49% Mike Huckabee 44% 5
52% Sarah Palin 38% 14
46% Mitt Romney 44% 2
48% Marco Rubio 40% 8

Georgia

[edit]

16 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research[34] December 12–14, 2011 Barack Obama 41% Newt Gingrich 50% 9 625 ±4.0%
38% Mitt Romney 55% 17
SurveyUSA[35] December 6–7, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Newt Gingrich 48% 6 1,176 ±2.9%
42% Mitt Romney 49% 7
Public Policy Polling[36] March 31 – April 3, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 45% 1 790 RV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 48% 3
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 43% 5
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 46% 3
Barack Obama 44% Herman Cain 39% 5

Hawaii

[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 72%–27%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[37] October 13–16, 2011 Barack Obama 64% Michele Bachmann 28% 36 568 RV ±4.1%
63% Herman Cain 30% 33
64% Newt Gingrich 27% 37
63% Rick Perry 28% 35
59% Mitt Romney 32% 27

Illinois

[edit]

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 55%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–37%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Paul Simon Public Policy Institute (Southern Illinois University)[38] October 11–16, 2011 Barack Obama 46.1% Mitt Romney 38.5% 7.6 1,000 RV ±3%
49.3% Ron Paul 30.3% 19

Iowa

[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
NBC News/Marist College[39] November 27–29, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 37% 11 1,393 ±2.6%
46% Mitt Romney 39% 7
54% Michele Bachmann 31% 23
47% Newt Gingrich 37% 10
50% Herman Cain 32% 18
Barack Obama 42% Ron Paul 42% Tied
Public Policy Polling[40] October 7–10, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 39% 10 749 RV ±3.6%
47% Herman Cain 41% 6
50% Newt Gingrich 39% 11
47% Ron Paul 40% 7
49% Rick Perry 39% 10
46% Mitt Romney 42% 4
NBC News/Marist College[41] October 3–5, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Rick Perry 37% 9 2,836 RV ±1.8%
43% Mitt Romney 40% 3
Public Policy Polling[42] August 19–21, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Michele Bachmann 34% 17 798 RV ±3.5%
51% Herman Cain 33% 18
54% Sarah Palin 33% 21
51% Rick Perry 38% 13
49% Mitt Romney 39% 10
Every Child Matters Fund/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research[43] July 5–7, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Michele Bachmann 46% 1 629 LV ±3.9%
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 47% 3
Public Policy Polling[44] May 27–30, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 32% 18 1,387 RV ±2.6%
54% Newt Gingrich 33% 21
55% Sarah Palin 35% 20
49% Tim Pawlenty 37% 12
49% Mitt Romney 40% 9
Public Policy Polling[45] April 15–17, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 39% 11 1,109 RV ±2.9%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 45% Tied
Barack Obama 53% Sarah Palin 36% 17
45% Mitt Romney 41% 4
51% Donald Trump 35% 16
Public Policy Polling[46] January 7–9, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 38% 13 1,077 RV ±3.0%
47% Mike Huckabee 43% 4
53% Sarah Palin 37% 16
47% Mitt Romney 41% 6

Kansas

[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 62%–37%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
KWCH-TV Wichita/Survey USA[47] November 10, 2011 Barack Obama 35% Newt Gingrich 52% 17 800 RV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 31% Mitt Romney 56% 25

Kentucky

[edit]

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–40%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–41%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[48] August 25–28, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Michele Bachmann 46% 3 600 RV ±4.0%
Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 44% 3
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 44% 4
Barack Obama 42% Rick Perry 49% 7
Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 48% 8

Louisiana

[edit]

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 57%–42%
(Republican in 2008) 59%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Clarus Research Group[49] October 5–7, 2011 Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 53% 16 602 RV ±4.0%
Barack Obama 37% Rick Perry 52% 15
Public Policy Polling[50] July 17–19, 2009 Barack Obama 42% Sarah Palin 49% 7 727 RV ±3.6%
Barack Obama 40% Bobby Jindal 54% 14

Maine

[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[51] October 28–31, 2011 Barack Obama 55% Michele Bachmann 35% 20 673 RV ±3.8%
54% Herman Cain 37% 17
55% Newt Gingrich 35% 20
55% Rick Perry 34% 21
49% Mitt Romney 38% 11
Bangor Daily News/Critical Insights[52] October 18–23, 2011 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 40% 1 600 RV ±4.0%
46% Rick Perry 32% 14
Public Policy Polling[53] March 3–6, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Newt Gingrich 37% 16 1,247 RV ±2.8%
51% Mike Huckabee 39% 12
57% Sarah Palin 35% 22
49% Mitt Romney 41% 8

Massachusetts

[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 62%–37%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–36%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
University of Massachusetts Amherst/YouGov[54] November 9–22, 2011 Barack Obama 54% Rick Perry 23% 31 222 RV Not reported
Barack Obama 51% Herman Cain 28% 23 228 RV
Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 34% 15 446 RV ±4.6%
Public Policy Polling[55] September 16–18, 2011 Barack Obama 59% Michele Bachmann 28% 31 791 RV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 58% Newt Gingrich 31% 27
Barack Obama 55% Ron Paul 30% 25
Barack Obama 58% Rick Perry 32% 26
Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 40% 13
Public Policy Polling[56] June 2–5, 2011 Barack Obama 60% Herman Cain 27% 33 957 RV ±3.2%
Barack Obama 63% Newt Gingrich 27% 36
Barack Obama 63% Sarah Palin 27% 36
Barack Obama 59% Tim Pawlenty 28% 31
Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 37% 20
Public Policy Polling[57] November 29 – December 1, 2010 Barack Obama 57% Newt Gingrich 33% 24 500 RV ±4.4%
Barack Obama 57% Mike Huckabee 33% 24
Barack Obama 61% Sarah Palin 32% 29
Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 43% 9

Michigan

[edit]

16 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–41%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA[58] November 13–16, 2011 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 46% 5 600 LV ±4%
Barack Obama 45% Newt Gingrich 40% 5
Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 36% 14
SurveyUSA[59] October 12–14, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Michele Bachmann 30% 26 500 LV ±4.5%
Barack Obama 53% Herman Cain 32% 21
Barack Obama 54% Newt Gingrich 31% 23
Barack Obama 53% Rick Perry 32% 21
Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 39% 11
Inside Michigan/Marketing Resource Group[60] Sept 14–19, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 39% 11 600 LV ±4%
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied
Public Policy Polling[61] July 21–24, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Michele Bachmann 37% 16 593 RV ±4.0%
Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 33% 17
Barack Obama 54% Sarah Palin 36% 18
Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 35% 15
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42% 5
Barack Obama 50% Thaddeus McCotter 31% 19
EPIC-MRA[62] July 9–11, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 46% 4 600 LV ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling[63] March 18–20, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Newt Gingrich 37% 16 502 RV ±4.4%
Barack Obama 50% Mike Huckabee 41% 9
Barack Obama 55% Sarah Palin 35% 20
Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 41% 7
Barack Obama 52% Scott Walker 32% 20
EPIC-MRA[64] February 12–17, 2011 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 46% 5 600 LV ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling[65] December 3–6, 2010 Barack Obama 52% Newt Gingrich 37% 15 1,224 RV ±2.8%
Barack Obama 51% Mike Huckabee 39% 12
Barack Obama 56% Sarah Palin 35% 21
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 43% 4
Barack Obama 49% Rick Snyder 38% 11

Minnesota

[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
KSTP-TV Minneapolis/SurveyUSA[66] November 2–6, 2011 Barack Obama 57% Michele Bachmann 29% 28 543 RV ±4.3%
Barack Obama 48% Herman Cain 35% 13
Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 35% 13
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 39% 6
KSTP-TV Minneapolis/SurveyUSA[67] June 15–17, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Michele Bachmann 39% 14 558 RV ±4.2%
Barack Obama 46% Tim Pawlenty 46% Tied
Public Policy Polling[68] May 27–30, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Michele Bachmann 35% 21 1,179 RV ±2.9%
Barack Obama 51% Herman Cain 30% 21
Barack Obama 54% Newt Gingrich 36% 18
Barack Obama 56% Sarah Palin 36% 20
Barack Obama 51% Tim Pawlenty 43% 8
Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 36% 15
Public Policy Polling[69] December 4–5, 2010 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 38% 13 949 RV ±3.2%
Barack Obama 50% Mike Huckabee 40% 10
Barack Obama 54% Sarah Palin 36% 18
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42% 5
Barack Obama 51% Tim Pawlenty 43% 8
St. Cloud State University[70] October 24 – November 4, 2009 Barack Obama 49% Tim Pawlenty 40% 9 550 ±5.0%
Public Policy Polling[71] July 7–8, 2009 Barack Obama 56% Sarah Palin 35% 21 1,491 ±2.5%
Barack Obama 51% Tim Pawlenty 40% 11

Mississippi

[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 59%–40%
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[72] November 4–6, 2011 Barack Obama 40% Michele Bachmann 52% 12 796 RV ±3.5%
37% Herman Cain 54% 17
38% Newt Gingrich 54% 16
37% Ron Paul 52% 15
38% Rick Perry 55% 17
36% Mitt Romney 54% 18
Public Policy Polling[73] March 24–27, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Newt Gingrich 48% 6 817 RV ±3.4%
40% Mike Huckabee 54% 14
44% Sarah Palin 48% 4
40% Mitt Romney 46% 6
41% Haley Barbour 51% 10

Missouri

[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 53%–46%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–49%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research[74] November 9, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Herman Cain 39% 8 500 LV ±4.5%
Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 43% 4
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 45% 3
Public Policy Polling[75] September 9–12, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Michele Bachmann 43% 4 632 RV ±3.9%
Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 45% 2
Barack Obama 45% Rick Perry 47% 2
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 47% 4
Public Policy Polling[76] April 28 – May 1, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 44% 2 555 RV ±3.9%
Barack Obama 44% Mike Huckabee 49% 5
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 43% 5
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 45% 2
Barack Obama 46% Donald Trump 41% 5
Public Policy Polling[77] March 3–6, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 44% Tied 612 RV ±4.0%
Barack Obama 43% Mike Huckabee 49% 6
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 43% 5
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 44% 1
Public Policy Polling[78] November 29 – December 1, 2010 Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 45% 1 515 RV ±4.3%
Barack Obama 42% Mike Huckabee 49% 7
Barack Obama 46% Sarah Palin 43% 3
Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 47% 6

Montana

[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 59%–39%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–47%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[79] November 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Herman Cain 45% 2 1,625 RV ±2.4%
42% Newt Gingrich 50% 8
40% Ron Paul 48% 8
40% Mitt Romney 50% 10
43% Rick Perry 46% 3
Public Policy Polling[80] June 16–19, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Michele Bachmann 48% 6 819 RV ±3.4%
41% Herman Cain 46% 5
44% Sarah Palin 48% 4
41% Tim Pawlenty 45% 4
41% Mitt Romney 49% 8
Public Policy Polling[81] November 10–13, 2010 Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 46% 2 1,176 RV ±2.9%
41% Mike Huckabee 51% 10
45% Sarah Palin 47% 2
39% Mitt Romney 50% 11

Nebraska

[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 66%–33%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[82] September 30 – October 2, 2011 Barack Obama 41% Michele Bachmann 49% 8 739 RV ±3.6%
Barack Obama 41% Newt Gingrich 48% 7
Barack Obama 41% Rick Perry 48% 7
Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 51% 13
Public Policy Polling[83] January 26–27, 2011 Barack Obama 40% Newt Gingrich 48% 8 977 RV ±3.1%
Barack Obama 38% Mike Huckabee 51% 13
Barack Obama 44% Sarah Palin 45% 1
Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 49% 12

Nevada

[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 55%–43%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Las Vegas Review-Journal/University of Nevada Las Vegas[84] December 12–20, 2011 Barack Obama 45.7% Mitt Romney 39.8% 5.9 600 RV ±4.0%
Barack Obama 45.4% Ron Paul 35.7% 9.7
Barack Obama 47.3% Newt Gingrich 35.4% 11.9
Barack Obama 50.2% Michele Bachmann 27.1% 23.1
Barack Obama 48.8% Jon Huntsman 30.1% 18.7
Barack Obama 50.8% Rick Perry 31.1% 19.7
Barack Obama 49.3% Rick Santorum 30.9% 18.4
Public Policy Polling[85] October 20–23, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 41% 8 500 RV ±4.4%
Barack Obama 49% Herman Cain 46% 3
Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 46% 3
Barack Obama 51% Rick Perry 41% 10
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 46% Tied
Public Policy Polling[86] July 28–31, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 40% 10 601 RV ±4.0%
Barack Obama 48% Herman Cain 39% 9
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 39% 12
Barack Obama 49% Rick Perry 40% 9
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1
Public Policy Polling[86] April 21–24, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 42% 4 491 RV ±4.4%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 43% 2
Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 39% 11
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 46% 3
Barack Obama 47% Donald Trump 41% 6
Public Policy Polling[87] January 3–5, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 40% 11 932 RV ±3.2%
Barack Obama 51% Mike Huckabee 41% 10
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 39% 13
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1

New Hampshire

[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
NBC News/Marist College[88] November 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Rick Perry 36% 15 1,144 RV ±2.9%
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 46% 3
Barack Obama 53% Michele Bachmann 33% 20
Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 39% 10
Barack Obama 53% Herman Cain 30% 23
Barack Obama 44% Ron Paul 42% 2
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[89] November 15–20, 2011 Barack Obama 54% Rick Perry 35% 19 606 LV ±4%
Barack Obama 52% Newt Gingrich 40% 12
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 47% 3
NBC News/Marist College[41] October 3–5, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Rick Perry 40% 6 2,218 RV ±2.1%
Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 49% 9
Public Policy Polling[90] June 30 – July 5, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 42% 7 662 RV ±3.8%
Barack Obama 49% Herman Cain 39% 10
Barack Obama 53% Sarah Palin 38% 15
Barack Obama 48% Tim Pawlenty 41% 7
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 46% 2
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[91] June 21 – July 1, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 47% 4 773 A ±3.5%
Barack Obama 47% Tim Pawlenty 38% 11
Barack Obama 47% Michele Bachmann 41% 6
Public Policy Polling[92] March 31 – April 3, 2011 Barack Obama 52% Newt Gingrich 39% 13 769 RV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 52% Mike Huckabee 38% 14
Barack Obama 56% Sarah Palin 34% 22
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1
Barack Obama 51% Donald Trump 37% 14
Magellan Strategies[93] February 9–10, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44% 4 789 LV ±3.49%
Barack Obama 57% Sarah Palin 34% 23
Barack Obama 51% Mike Huckabee 38% 13
Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 33% 23

New Jersey

[edit]

14 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 52%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[94] January 6–9, 2011 Barack Obama 55% Chris Christie 38% 17 520 RV ±4.3%
Barack Obama 54% Newt Gingrich 37% 17
Barack Obama 53% Mike Huckabee 36% 17
Barack Obama 59% Sarah Palin 29% 30
Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 37% 15

New Mexico

[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[95] December 10–12, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 39% 17 500 RV ±4.4%
56% Michele Bachmann 36% 20
51% Ron Paul 38% 13
53% Mitt Romney 38% 15
56% Rick Perry 35% 21
Public Policy Polling[96] June 23–26, 2011 Barack Obama 52% Michele Bachmann 37% 15 732 RV ±3.6%
52% Herman Cain 36% 16
46% Gary Johnson 43% 3
56% Sarah Palin 36% 20
51% Tim Pawlenty 36% 15
49% Mitt Romney 42% 7
Public Policy Polling[97] February 4–6, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 35% 21 545 RV ±4.2%
55% Mike Huckabee 36% 19
51% Gary Johnson 36% 15
62% Sarah Palin 33% 29
53% Mitt Romney 37% 16

Three Way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Libertarian % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[95] December 10–12, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Newt Gingrich 28% Gary Johnson 20% 17 500 RV ±4.4%
44% Mitt Romney 27% Gary Johnson 23% 17

New York

[edit]

29 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 58%–40%
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–36%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Siena College[98] November 8–13, 2011 Barack Obama 63% Herman Cain 27% 36 803 RV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 63% Rick Perry 28% 35
Barack Obama 59% Mitt Romney 34% 25
Barack Obama 64% Michele Bachmann 27% 37
Barack Obama 60% Ron Paul 31% 29
Marist College[99] October 25–27, 2011 Barack Obama 62% Herman Cain 31% 31 1,030 RV ±3.0%
Barack Obama 64% Rick Perry 29% 35
Barack Obama 59% Mitt Romney 35% 24
Siena College[100] October 10–12, 2011 Barack Obama 58% Herman Cain 32% 26 800 RV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 58% Rick Perry 31% 27
Barack Obama 55% Mitt Romney 37% 18

North Carolina

[edit]

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[101] December 1–4, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 37% 13 865 RV ±3.3%
Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 45% 4
Barack Obama 47% Ron Paul 42% 5
Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 42% 8
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 46% Tied
Public Policy Polling[102] October 27–31, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 42% 8 615 RV ±4.0%
Barack Obama 47% Herman Cain 44% 3
Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 43% 7
Barack Obama 48% Ron Paul 40% 8
Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 42% 8
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 46% 1
Public Policy Polling[103] September 30 – October 3, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 42% 7 760 RV ±3.6%
Barack Obama 45% Chris Christie 46% 1
Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 42% 7
Barack Obama 46% Ron Paul 43% 3
Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 44% 4
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% 1
Public Policy Polling[104] September 1–4, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Michele Bachmann 45% 2 520 RV ±4.3%
Barack Obama 48% Newt Gingrich 43% 5
Barack Obama 49% Sarah Palin 42% 7
Barack Obama 46% Rick Perry 46% Tied
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1
Public Policy Polling[105] August 4–7, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 40% 10 780 RV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 37% 13
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 39% 13
Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 40% 8
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3
Public Policy Polling[106] July 7–10, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Michele Bachmann 43% 3 651 RV ±3.8%
Barack Obama 46% Herman Cain 42% 4
Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 42% 8
Barack Obama 46% Tim Pawlenty 41% 5
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied
Public Policy Polling[107] June 8–11, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Herman Cain 37% 11 563 RV ±4.1%
Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 40% 10
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 38% 14
Barack Obama 47% Tim Pawlenty 40% 7
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1
Public Policy Polling[108] May 12–15, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 42% 8 835 RV ±3.4%
Barack Obama 47% Mike Huckabee 46% 1
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 40% 12
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3
Barack Obama 52% Donald Trump 35% 17
Public Policy Polling[109] April 14–17, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 45% 4 507 RV ±4.4%
Barack Obama 48% Mike Huckabee 47% 1
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 40% 12
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 44% 3
Barack Obama 51% Donald Trump 39% 12
Public Policy Polling[110] March 17–20, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 42% 5 584 RV ±4.1%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 45% Tied
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 40% 11
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 42% 2
Public Policy Polling[111] February 16–21, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Newt Gingrich 44% 4 650 RV ±3.8%
Barack Obama 46% Mike Huckabee 47% 1
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 41% 10
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 44% 3
Public Policy Polling[112] January 20–23, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 44% 6 575 RV ±4.1%
Barack Obama 49% Mike Huckabee 45% 4
Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 41% 9
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 44% 3
Public Policy Polling[113] December 17–19, 2010 Barack Obama 48% Newt Gingrich 42% 6 520 RV ±4.3%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 46% 1
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 38% 14
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3
Public Policy Polling[114] November 19–21, 2010 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 45% 1 517 RV ±4.3%
Barack Obama 44% Mike Huckabee 48% 4
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 43% 5
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied
Public Policy Polling[115] July 10–12, 2009 Barack Obama 49% Sarah Palin 42% 7 767 RV ±3.5%

Ohio

[edit]

18 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Quinnipiac University[19] November 28 – December 5, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 43% 1 1,437 RV ±2.6%
Barack Obama 42% Newt Gingrich 43% 1
Quinnipiac University[22] October 31 – November 7, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Herman Cain 38% 10 1,312 RV ±2.7%
Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 37% 12
Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 36% 12
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 42% 3
Public Policy Polling[116] November 4–6, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Michele Bachmann 37% 14 1,022 RV ±3.1%
Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 39% 11
Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 38% 13
Barack Obama 50% Ron Paul 36% 14
Barack Obama 53% Rick Perry 36% 17
Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 41% 9
Quinnipiac University[117] October 17–23, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 36% 11 1,668 RV ±2.4%
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 41% 4
Barack Obama 47% Herman Cain 39% 8
Public Policy Polling[118] October 13–16, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 40% 9 581 RV ±4.1%
Barack Obama 48% Herman Cain 45% 3
Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 40% 11
Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 41% 9
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 46% Tied
Quinnipiac University[119] September 22–25, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Rick Perry 41% 3 1,301 RV ±2.7%
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 42% 2
Public Policy Polling[120] August 11–14, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Michele Bachmann 41% 7 792 RV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 47% Herman Cain 39% 8
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 38% 13
Barack Obama 45% Rick Perry 41% 4
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 43% 2
Quinnipiac University[121] July 12–18, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 36% 13 563 RV ±4.1%
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 35% 16
Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 35% 12
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 41% 4
Public Policy Polling[122] March 10–13, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 38% 12 559 RV ±4.1%
Barack Obama 48% Mike Huckabee 41% 7
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 36% 16
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 40% 6
Public Policy Polling[123] December 10–12, 2010 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 41% 6 510 RV ±4.3%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 44% 1
Barack Obama 49% Sarah Palin 42% 7
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 42% 2

Oregon

[edit]

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Daily Kos/Service Employees' International Union/Service Employees' International Union/Public Policy Polling (D)[124] December 13–14, 2011 Barack Obama 55% Newt Gingrich 37% 18 979 RV ±3.1%
53% Mitt Romney 40% 13
KATU-TV Portland/SurveyUSA[125] November 18–21, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 37% 14 528 RV ±4.4%
48% Mitt Romney 40% 8
Public Policy Polling[126] June 19–21, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Michele Bachmann 35% 18 701 RV ±3.7%
53% Herman Cain 32% 21
57% Sarah Palin 35% 22
52% Tim Pawlenty 34% 18
50% Mitt Romney 38% 12

Pennsylvania

[edit]

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Morning Call/Muhlenberg College[127] November 28 – December 7, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 41% 4 422 RV ±5%
52% Newt Gingrich 35% 17
48% Rick Perry 30% 18
55% Herman Cain 28% 27
Quinnipiac University[19] November 28 – December 5, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3 1,453 RV ±2.6%
48% Newt Gingrich 40% 8
Public Policy Polling[128] November 17–20, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Herman Cain 35% 18 500 RV ±4.4%
49% Newt Gingrich 43% 6
46% Ron Paul 42% 4
51% Rick Perry 38% 13
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied
Barack Obama 47% Rick Santorum 42% 5
Survey USA[129] November 10, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 40% 7 800 RV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied
Quinnipiac University[22] October 31 – November 7, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Herman Cain 38% 10 1,436 RV ±2.6%
48% Newt Gingrich 38% 10
47% Rick Perry 38% 9
44% Mitt Romney 43% 1
Franklin & Marshall College[130] October 24–30, 2011 Barack Obama 38% Herman Cain 24% 14 525 RV ±4.3%
40% Rick Perry 20% 20
35% Mitt Romney 26% 9
38% Rick Santorum 25% 13
Quinnipiac University[131] September 21–26, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Rick Perry 40% 6 1,370 RV ±2.7%
45% Mitt Romney 43% 2
45% Rick Santorum 42% 3
Franklin & Marshall College[132] August 22–29, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Michele Bachmann 23% 19 525 RV ±4.3%
38% Rick Perry 27% 11
36% Mitt Romney 30% 6
Quinnipiac University[133] July 25–31, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Michele Bachmann 39% 8 1,358 RV ±2.7%
45% Rick Perry 39% 6
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 44% 2
Barack Obama 45% Rick Santorum 43% 2
Public Policy Polling[134] June 30 – July 5, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 43% 7 545 RV ±4.2%
49% Herman Cain 37% 12
53% Sarah Palin 39% 14
47% Tim Pawlenty 39% 8
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied
Barack Obama 50% Rick Santorum 40% 10
Quinnipiac University[135] June 7–12, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 40% 7 1,277 RV ±2.7%
49% Rick Santorum 38% 11
Public Policy Polling[136] April 7–10, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 39% 8 593 RV ±4.0%
45% Mike Huckabee 44% 1
50% Sarah Palin 39% 11
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 43% 1
Barack Obama 45% Rick Santorum 43% 2
Public Policy Polling[137] January 3–5, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 40% 10 547 RV ±4.2%
47% Mike Huckabee 44% 3
51% Sarah Palin 36% 15
46% Mitt Romney 42% 4
48% Rick Santorum 40% 8

Rhode Island

[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 59%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–35%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[138] February 16–22, 2011 Barack Obama 60% Newt Gingrich 27% 33 544 RV ±4.2%
Barack Obama 56% Mike Huckabee 31% 25
Barack Obama 65% Sarah Palin 24% 41
Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 37% 17

South Carolina

[edit]

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
NBC News/Marist College[139] December 4–7, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 42% 3 2,107 RV ±2.1%
Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 42% 4
Barack Obama 47% Ron Paul 37% 10
NBC News/Marist College[140] October 10–12, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Herman Cain 44% 2 2,131 RV ±2.1%
Barack Obama 42% Rick Perry 43% 1
Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 46% 6
Public Policy Polling[141] August 25–28, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Michele Bachmann 44% Tied 587 RV ±4.0%
Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 45% 1
Barack Obama 45% Sarah Palin 45% Tied
Barack Obama 41% Rick Perry 49% 8
Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 53% 15
Public Policy Polling[142] June 2–5, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Herman Cain 40% 3 741 RV ±3.6%
Barack Obama 44% Jim DeMint 47% 3
Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 44% 2
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 43% 5
Barack Obama 42% Tim Pawlenty 42% Tied
Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 50% 9
Public Policy Polling[143] January 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 43% 1 1,167 RV ±2.9%
Barack Obama 43% Mike Huckabee 49% 6
Barack Obama 47% Sarah Palin 41% 6
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 49% 7
Barack Obama 45% Jim DeMint 47% 2

South Dakota

[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[144] January 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 42% 2 1,045 RV ±3.0%
Barack Obama 41% Mike Huckabee 47% 6
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 40% 8
Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 46% 6
Barack Obama 37% John Thune 57% 20

Tennessee

[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 57%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Vanderbilt University[145] October 28 – November 5, 2011 Barack Obama 39% Rick Perry 40% 1 1,423 RV ±2.6%
Barack Obama 37% Herman Cain 41% 4
Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 42% 4
Middle Tennessee State University[146] October 3–14, 2011 Barack Obama 29% Mitt Romney 44% 14 635 A ±4%
Vanderbilt University[147] June 3–8, 2011 Barack Obama 38% Michele Bachmann 27% 11 700 RV ±3.7%
Barack Obama 38% Newt Gingrich 26% 12
Barack Obama 43% Sarah Palin 29% 14
Barack Obama 37% Tim Pawlenty 28% 9
Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 35% 2
Public Policy Polling[148] February 9–13, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Newt Gingrich 46% 3 500 RV ±4.4%
Barack Obama 41% Mike Huckabee 53% 12
Barack Obama 45% Sarah Palin 45% Tied
Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 48% 7
FRONTPAGE Vanderbilt University[149] January 14–16, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Sarah Palin 37% 5 710 RV ±3.3%

Three Way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Third party/independent % Lead margin
Vanderbilt University[150]
 October 28 – November 5, 2011 Barack Obama 34% Rick Perry 27% "a qualified Independent candidate" 23% 7
38% Herman Cain 30% "a qualified Independent candidate" 18% 8
36% Mitt Romney 25% "a qualified Independent candidate" 23% 11
33% Mitt Romney 28% Michael Bloomberg 14% 5
34% Mitt Romney 28% Warren Buffett 18% 6
38% Mitt Romney 35% Alec Baldwin 8% 3

Texas

[edit]

38 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 61%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 55%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
University of Texas/Texas Tribune/YouGov[151] October 19–26, 2011 Barack Obama 33% Ron Paul 38% 5 800 A ±3.46%
Barack Obama 35% Herman Cain 40% 5
Barack Obama 34% Mitt Romney 36% 2
Barack Obama 37% Rick Perry 45% 8
Public Policy Polling[152] June 25–27, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Michele Bachmann 47% 3 795 RV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 43% Herman Cain 43% Tied
Barack Obama 46% Sarah Palin 44% 2
Barack Obama 43% Tim Pawlenty 44% 1
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 50% 8
Barack Obama 40% Ron Paul 45% 5
Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 45% 2
Public Policy Polling[153] January 14–16, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Newt Gingrich 48% 5 892 RV ±3.3%
Barack Obama 39% Mike Huckabee 55% 16
Barack Obama 46% Sarah Palin 47% 1
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 49% 7
Barack Obama 45% Rick Perry 45% Tied
University of Texas at Austin[154] June 11–22, 2009 Barack Obama 34% Mitt Romney 39% 5 924 A ±3.22%

Utah

[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 72%–26%
(Republican in 2008) 62%–34%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[155] July 8–10, 2011 Barack Obama 35% Michele Bachmann 49% 14 732 RV ±3.6%
36% Herman Cain 43% 7
23% Jon Huntsman 63% 40
41% Sarah Palin 43% 2
34% Tim Pawlenty 45% 11
31% Mitt Romney 63% 32
Salt Lake Tribune/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research[156] April 26–28, 2010 Barack Obama 22% Mitt Romney 73% 51 400 RV ±5.0%
32% Sarah Palin 53% 22
31% Ron Paul 48% 17
KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates[157] April 29, 2009 Barack Obama 27% Mitt Romney 67% 40 254 A ±6.2%
25% Jon Huntsman 58% 33

Vermont

[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 59%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 67%–30%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[158] July 28–31, 2011 Barack Obama 58% Michele Bachmann 30% 28 1,233 RV ±2.8%
58% Herman Cain 26% 32
53% Mike Huckabee 36% 17
62% Sarah Palin 28% 34
57% Rick Perry 28% 29
54% Mitt Romney 34% 20

Virginia

[edit]

13 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 53%–46%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Quinnipiac University[159] December 13–19, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 41% 5 1,135 RV ±2.9%
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 44% 2
Public Policy Polling[160] December 11–13, 2011 Barack Obama 52% Michele Bachmann 39% 13 600 RV ±4%
Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 43% 7
Barack Obama 48% Ron Paul 40% 8
Barack Obama 51% Rick Perry 41% 10
Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 42% 6
Quinnipiac University[161] October 3–9, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Herman Cain 43% 2 1,459 RV ±2.6%
Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 42% 5
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 45% 1
Richmond Times-Dispatch/Muhlenberg College/Christopher Newport University[162] October 3–8, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Rick Perry 43% Tied 1,027 RV ±3.1%
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 46% 4
Roanoke College[163] September 6–17, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Michele Bachmann 35% 9 601 A ±4%
Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 31% 19
Barack Obama 43% Ron Paul 33% 10
Barack Obama 40% Rick Perry 42% 2
Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 45% 8
Quinnipiac University[164] September 7–12, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Michele Bachmann 37% 11 1,368 RV ±2.7%
Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 35% 15
Barack Obama 44% Rick Perry 42% 2
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 44% 2
Public Policy Polling[165] July 21–24, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 40% 9 500 RV ±4.4%
Barack Obama 49% Herman Cain 38% 11
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 37% 14
Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 39% 9
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 43% 4
Public Policy Polling[166] May 5–8, 2011 Barack Obama 54% Newt Gingrich 37% 17 547 RV ±4.2%
Barack Obama 52% Mike Huckabee 43% 9
Barack Obama 55% Sarah Palin 40% 15
Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 40% 11
Barack Obama 54% Donald Trump 32% 22
Barack Obama 51% Bob McDonnell 43% 8
The Washington Post[167][168] May 2–4, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 44% 7 503 RV Not reported
Barack Obama 53% Mike Huckabee 34% 9
Barack Obama 55% Tim Pawlenty 35% 20
Barack Obama 61% Donald Trump 30% 31
Barack Obama 61% Sarah Palin 30% 31
The Washington Post[167][168] April 28 – May 1, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 46% 2 677 RV Not reported
Barack Obama 50% Mike Huckabee 46% 4
Barack Obama 51% Tim Pawlenty 38% 13
Barack Obama 54% Donald Trump 35% 19
Barack Obama 55% Sarah Palin 36% 19
Public Policy Polling[169] February 24–27, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 39% 12 524 RV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 51% Mike Huckabee 43% 8
Barack Obama 54% Sarah Palin 35% 19
Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 42% 6
Public Policy Polling[170] November 10–13, 2010 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 43% 5 551 RV ±4.2%
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 40% 11
Barack Obama 49% Mike Huckabee 44% 5
Barack Obama 52% Newt Gingrich 41% 11

Washington

[edit]

12 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
KING-TV Seattle/SurveyUSA[171] November 21–23, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 37% 19 549 RV ±4.3%
Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 41% 8
University of Washington[172] October 10–30, 2011 Barack Obama 54% Rick Perry 41% 13 938 RV ±3.2%
Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 41% 9
Strategies 360[173] September 11–14, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Rick Perry 37% 14 400 LV ±4.9%
Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 40% 9
Public Policy Polling[174] May 12–15, 2011 Barack Obama 54% Newt Gingrich 36% 18 1098 RV ±3.0%
Barack Obama 53% Mike Huckabee 39% 14
Barack Obama 57% Sarah Palin 34% 23
Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 40% 11
Barack Obama 58% Donald Trump 31% 27

West Virginia

[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling[175] September 30–
October 2, 2011 		Barack Obama 37% Michele Bachmann 52% 15 932 RV ±3.2%
Barack Obama 36% Newt Gingrich 51% 15
Barack Obama 34% Ron Paul 48% 14
Barack Obama 36% Rick Perry 52% 16
Barack Obama 33% Mitt Romney 54% 21
Public Policy Polling[176] September 1–4, 2011 Barack Obama 39% Michele Bachmann 48% 9 708 RV ±3.7%
Barack Obama 40% Newt Gingrich 45% 5
Barack Obama 42% Sarah Palin 45% 3
Barack Obama 38% Rick Perry 49% 11
Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 49% 12
Public Policy Polling[177] January 20–23, 2011 Barack Obama 39% Newt Gingrich 49% 10 1105 RV ±2.9%
Barack Obama 36% Mike Huckabee 54% 18
Barack Obama 42% Sarah Palin 46% 4
Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 50% 13

Wisconsin

[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 56%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
WRPI[178] October 18–26, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 31% 19 605 A ±4%
Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 30% 18
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 35% 11
Public Policy Polling[179] October 20–23, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Michele Bachmann 40% 11 1,170 RV ±2.9%
Barack Obama 49% Herman Cain 42% 7
Barack Obama 52% Newt Gingrich 38% 14
Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 39% 11
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3
Public Policy Polling[42] August 12–14, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Michele Bachmann 39% 12 830 RV ±3.4%
Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 36% 14
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 40% 12
Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 40% 10
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42% 5
Public Policy Polling[180] May 19–22, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Newt Gingrich 35% 18 1,636 RV ±2.4%
Barack Obama 55% Sarah Palin 36% 19
Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 39% 12
Barack Obama 50% Paul Ryan 43% 7
Public Policy Polling[181] February 24–27, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 39% 12 768 RV ±3.5%
Barack Obama 48% Mike Huckabee 41% 7
Barack Obama 54% Sarah Palin 35% 19
Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 38% 10
Barack Obama 49% Paul Ryan 40% 9
Public Policy Polling[182] December 10–12, 2010 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 41% 9 702 RV ±3.7%
Barack Obama 47% Mike Huckabee 41% 6
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 38% 14
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 42% 4
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research[183] October 26, 2010 Barack Obama 47% Herman Cain 42% 5 500 LV ±4.5%
Barack Obama 42% Rick Perry 46% 4
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 41% 4

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Public Policy Polling
  2. ^ BRC/Rocky Mountain Poll
  3. ^ Public Policy Polling
  4. ^ Public Policy Polling
  5. ^ Public Policy Polling
  6. ^ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  7. ^ Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)
  8. ^ Public Policy Polling
  9. ^ Survey USA
  10. ^ Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)
  11. ^ L.A. Times/USC Dornsife/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
  12. ^ Public Policy Polling
  13. ^ Public Policy Polling
  14. ^ Public Policy Polling [permanent dead link‍]
  15. ^ Public Policy Polling
  16. ^ Public Policy Polling
  17. ^ Quinnipiac University
  18. ^ NBC News/Marist College
  19. ^ a b c Quinnipiac University
  20. ^ Public Policy Polling
  21. ^ Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research
  22. ^ a b c Quinnipiac University
  23. ^ Suffolk University
  24. ^ NBC News/Marist College
  25. ^ Public Policy Polling
  26. ^ Quinnipiac University
  27. ^ a b Quinnipiac University
  28. ^ Sunshine State News/Voter Survey Service
  29. ^ Public Policy Polling
  30. ^ Suffolk University/7 News Archived 2011-11-28 at the Wayback Machine
  31. ^ Ron Sachs Communications/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research
  32. ^ Public Policy Polling
  33. ^ Public Policy Polling
  34. ^ Mason-Dixon Polling & Research
  35. ^ SurveyUSA
  36. ^ Public Policy Polling
  37. ^ Public Policy Polling
  38. ^ Paul Simon Public Policy Institute (Southern Illinois University)
  39. ^ NBC News/Marist College
  40. ^ Public Policy Polling
  41. ^ a b NBC News/Marist College
  42. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  43. ^ Every Child Matters Fund/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research[usurped]
  44. ^ Public Policy Polling
  45. ^ Public Policy Polling
  46. ^ Public Policy Polling
  47. ^ KWCH-TV Wichita/Survey USA
  48. ^ Public Policy Polling
  49. ^ Clarus Research Group
  50. ^ Public Policy Polling
  51. ^ Public Policy Polling
  52. ^ Bangor Daily News/Critical Insights
  53. ^ Public Policy Polling
  54. ^ University of Massachusetts Amherst/YouGov
  55. ^ Public Policy Polling
  56. ^ Public Policy Polling
  57. ^ Public Policy Polling
  58. ^ Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA
  59. ^ SurveyUSA
  60. ^ Inside Michigan/Marketing Resource Group
  61. ^ Public Policy Polling
  62. ^ EPIC-MRA
  63. ^ Public Policy Polling
  64. ^ EPIC-MRA
  65. ^ Public Policy Polling
  66. ^ KSTP-TV Minneapolis/SurveyUSA
  67. ^ KSTP-TV Minneapolis/SurveyUSA
  68. ^ Public Policy Polling
  69. ^ Public Policy Polling
  70. ^ St. Cloud State University[permanent dead link‍]
  71. ^ Public Policy Polling [permanent dead link‍]
  72. ^ Public Policy Polling
  73. ^ Public Policy Polling
  74. ^ Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research
  75. ^ Public Policy Polling
  76. ^ Public Policy Polling
  77. ^ Public Policy Polling
  78. ^ Public Policy Polling
  79. ^ Public Policy Polling
  80. ^ Public Policy Polling
  81. ^ Public Policy Polling
  82. ^ Public Policy Polling
  83. ^ Public Policy Polling
  84. ^ Las Vegas Review-Journal/University of Nevada Las Vegas
  85. ^ Public Policy Polling
  86. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  87. ^ Public Policy Polling
  88. ^ NBC News/Marist College
  89. ^ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  90. ^ Public Policy Polling
  91. ^ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  92. ^ Public Policy Polling
  93. ^ Magellan Strategies
  94. ^ Public Policy Polling
  95. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  96. ^ Public Policy Polling
  97. ^ Public Policy Polling
  98. ^ Siena College
  99. ^ Marist College
  100. ^ "Siena College" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-08-24. Retrieved 2012-10-13.
  101. ^ Public Policy Polling
  102. ^ Public Policy Polling
  103. ^ Public Policy Polling
  104. ^ Public Policy Polling
  105. ^ Public Policy Polling [permanent dead link‍]
  106. ^ Public Policy Polling
  107. ^ Public Policy Polling
  108. ^ Public Policy Polling
  109. ^ Public Policy Polling
  110. ^ Public Policy Polling
  111. ^ Public Policy Polling
  112. ^ Public Policy Polling
  113. ^ Public Policy Polling
  114. ^ Public Policy Polling
  115. ^ Public Policy Polling [permanent dead link‍]
  116. ^ Public Policy Polling
  117. ^ Quinnipiac University
  118. ^ Public Policy Polling
  119. ^ Quinnipiac University
  120. ^ Public Policy Polling
  121. ^ Quinnipiac University
  122. ^ Public Policy Polling
  123. ^ Public Policy Polling
  124. ^ Daily Kos/Service Employees' International Union/Public Policy Polling (D)
  125. ^ KATU-TV Portland/SurveyUSA
  126. ^ Public Policy Polling
  127. ^ Morning Call/Muhlenberg College
  128. ^ Public Policy Polling
  129. ^ Survey USA
  130. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  131. ^ Quinnipiac University
  132. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  133. ^ Quinnipiac University
  134. ^ Public Policy Polling
  135. ^ Quinnipiac University
  136. ^ Public Policy Polling
  137. ^ Public Policy Polling
  138. ^ Public Policy Polling
  139. ^ NBC News/Marist College
  140. ^ NBC News/Marist College
  141. ^ Public Policy Polling
  142. ^ Public Policy Polling
  143. ^ Public Policy Polling
  144. ^ Public Policy Polling
  145. ^ Vanderbilt University
  146. ^ "Middle Tennessee State University". Archived from the original on 2021-08-10. Retrieved 2020-12-29.
  147. ^ Vanderbilt University
  148. ^ Public Policy Polling
  149. ^ FRONTPAGE Vanderbilt University
  150. ^ Vanderbilt University
  151. ^ University of Texas/Texas Tribune/YouGov
  152. ^ Public Policy Polling
  153. ^ Public Policy Polling
  154. ^ University of Texas at Austin
  155. ^ Public Policy Polling
  156. ^ Salt Lake Tribune/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research
  157. ^ KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates
  158. ^ Public Policy Polling [permanent dead link‍]
  159. ^ Quinnipiac University
  160. ^ Public Policy Polling
  161. ^ Quinnipiac University
  162. ^ Richmond Times-Dispatch/Muhlenberg College/Christopher Newport University
  163. ^ Roanoke College
  164. ^ Quinnipiac University
  165. ^ Public Policy Polling
  166. ^ Public Policy Polling
  167. ^ a b The Washington Post
  168. ^ a b Interviews conducted after the news of Osama bin Laden's killing.
  169. ^ Public Policy Polling
  170. ^ Public Policy Polling
  171. ^ KING-TV Seattle/SurveyUSA
  172. ^ University of Washington
  173. ^ Strategies 360
  174. ^ Public Policy Polling
  175. ^ Public Policy Polling
  176. ^ Public Policy Polling
  177. ^ Public Policy Polling
  178. ^ WRPI
  179. ^ Public Policy Polling
  180. ^ Public Policy Polling
  181. ^ Public Policy Polling
  182. ^ Public Policy Polling
  183. ^ Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research
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