2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina
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The 2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 general election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Carolina voters chose 15 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, U.S. Representative Paul Ryan.
Romney narrowly carried the state of North Carolina, winning 50.39% of the vote to Obama's 48.35%, a margin of 2.04 percentage points. North Carolina was one of just two states (along with Indiana) that flipped from voting for Obama in 2008 to voting Republican in 2012. Like Indiana, North Carolina had been a reliably Republican state prior to Obama's 2008 win, having not previously gone Democratic since 1976. Unlike Indiana, however, North Carolina was still considered a competitive swing state in 2012, and both campaigns targeted it heavily, with the Democrats holding their convention in Charlotte. Romney was the first presidential candidate since Zachary Taylor in 1848 to carry North Carolina while losing both Wake County and Mecklenburg County, the two most populous counties and home to the cities of Raleigh and Charlotte, respectively. Romney also became the third-ever Republican to carry North Carolina without winning the presidency after George H. W. Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996 and this feat would be reprised by Donald Trump in 2020. Obama became the first ever Democrat incumbent to win the state only once to then win re-election without it. Although Obama lost North Carolina to Romney, he received more votes than he received in 2008, garnering 35,740 more.
Obama became the first Democrat ever to win the presidency without Caswell and Hyde counties. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time where the Republican presidential candidate won Watauga County and where the Democratic presidential candidate won Bladen County, Gates County, Granville County, Martin County, Richmond County, and Robeson County. This is also the last time that any presidential candidate won the majority of the vote in North Carolina.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The 2012 North Carolina Democratic primary was held May 8, 2012. North Carolina awarded 157 delegates proportionally.[1]
No candidate ran against incumbent President Barack Obama in North Carolina's Democratic presidential preference primary. Obama received 766,079 votes, or 79.23% of the vote, with the remainder (200,810 votes, or 20.77%) going to elect delegates with "No Preference".[1]
At the North Carolina Democratic state convention, 152 delegates were awarded to Obama, with 5 delegates remaining unannounced.[1]
| Democratic primary election in North Carolina[2] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Awarded delegates | ||
| Barack Obama (incumbent) | 766,077 | 79.23% | 104 | ||
| No Preference | 200,810 | 20.77% | 43 | ||
| Totals | 966,889 | 100.00% | 104 | ||
Republican primary
[edit]The 2012 North Carolina Republican primary was held May 8, 2012.[3][4] North Carolina awarded 55 delegates proportionally.[5] Ron Paul and Mitt Romney were the only active contenders on the ballot. By the time of the primary, Romney had already been declared the party's presumptive nominee.[6]
Romney won the North Carolina GOP presidential primary with 65.62% of the vote. Paul (with 11.12% of the vote) narrowly edged out Santorum (with 10.39% of the vote), and Gingrich came in last with 7.64% of the vote. 5.23% of voters registered "no preference". The awarded delegate count from North Carolina's Republican state convention was Romney with 48 delegates and Paul with 7 delegates.[5]
| Republican primary election in North Carolina[5] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Awarded delegates | ||
| Mitt Romney | 638,601 | 65.62% | 48 | ||
| Ron Paul | 108,217 | 11.12% | 7 | ||
| Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 101,093 | 10.39% | |||
| Newt Gingrich (withdrawn) | 74,367 | 7.64% | |||
| No Preference | 50,928 | 5.23% | |||
| Totals | 973,206 | 100.00% | 55 | ||
General election
[edit]Polling
[edit]Throughout most of 2011, Obama won or tied with Romney in every poll. On September 25, 2011, Romney won a poll for the first time, 50% to 39%. Until May 2012, Obama had a consistent but narrow lead over Romney. Throughout the summer of 2012, the tide changed with Romney winning more polls than Obama. In September, Obama's momentum rose and Obama won most polls in September 2012. In October, the tide changed in Romney's favor, and Obama had not won a poll since October 1, 2012. Romney won every poll for the first three weeks in October, but then many polls came as tied between Obama and Romney. Romney led the last poll 50% to 46%, but the second last poll was tied.[7] The last three polls showed an average of Romney leading 49% to 48%, which was accurate compared to the results.[7]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Huffington Post[8] | Tossup | November 6, 2012 |
| CNN[9] | Lean R (flip) | November 6, 2012 |
| New York Times[10] | Lean R (flip) | November 6, 2012 |
| Washington Post[11] | Tossup | November 6, 2012 |
| RealClearPolitics[12] | Tossup | November 6, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Likely R (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
| FiveThirtyEight[14] | Lean R (flip) | November 6, 2012 |
Results
[edit]| 2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina[15] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | Mitt Romney | Paul Ryan | 2,270,395 | 50.39% | 15 | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama (incumbent) | Joe Biden (incumbent) | 2,178,391 | 48.35% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | Jim Gray | 44,515 | 0.99% | 0 | |
| Others (write-in) | 12,071 | 0.27% | 0 | |||
| Totals | 4,505,372 | 100.00% | 15 | |||
| Voter turnout (registered voters) | 67.74% | |||||
By county
[edit]| County | Mitt Romney Republican |
Barack Obama Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alamance | 38,170 | 56.32% | 28,875 | 42.60% | 731 | 1.08% | 9,295 | 13.72% | 67,776 |
| Alexander | 12,253 | 71.25% | 4,611 | 26.81% | 332 | 1.94% | 7,642 | 44.44% | 17,196 |
| Alleghany | 3,390 | 66.90% | 1,583 | 31.24% | 94 | 1.86% | 1,807 | 35.66% | 5,067 |
| Anson | 4,166 | 37.01% | 7,019 | 62.36% | 71 | 0.63% | −2,853 | −25.35% | 11,256 |
| Ashe | 8,242 | 65.36% | 4,116 | 32.64% | 252 | 2.00% | 4,126 | 32.72% | 12,610 |
| Avery | 5,766 | 74.31% | 1,882 | 24.26% | 111 | 1.43% | 3,884 | 50.05% | 7,759 |
| Beaufort | 13,977 | 59.17% | 9,435 | 39.94% | 208 | 0.89% | 4,542 | 19.23% | 23,620 |
| Bertie | 3,387 | 33.46% | 6,695 | 66.14% | 41 | 0.40% | −3,308 | −32.68% | 10,123 |
| Bladen | 7,748 | 48.56% | 8,062 | 50.52% | 147 | 0.92% | −314 | −1.96% | 15,957 |
| Brunswick | 34,743 | 60.57% | 22,038 | 38.42% | 581 | 1.01% | 12,705 | 22.15% | 57,362 |
| Buncombe | 54,701 | 42.84% | 70,625 | 55.31% | 2,370 | 1.85% | −15,924 | −12.47% | 127,696 |
| Burke | 22,267 | 60.93% | 13,701 | 37.49% | 576 | 1.58% | 8,566 | 23.44% | 36,544 |
| Cabarrus | 49,557 | 59.30% | 32,849 | 39.31% | 1,160 | 1.39% | 16,708 | 19.99% | 83,566 |
| Caldwell | 23,229 | 66.88% | 10,898 | 31.38% | 605 | 1.74% | 12,331 | 35.50% | 34,732 |
| Camden | 3,109 | 66.09% | 1,508 | 32.06% | 87 | 1.85% | 1,601 | 34.03% | 4,704 |
| Carteret | 24,775 | 69.76% | 10,301 | 29.00% | 441 | 1.24% | 14,474 | 40.76% | 35,517 |
| Caswell | 5,594 | 50.67% | 5,348 | 48.45% | 97 | 0.88% | 246 | 2.22% | 11,039 |
| Catawba | 44,538 | 63.99% | 24,069 | 34.58% | 994 | 1.43% | 20,469 | 29.41% | 69,601 |
| Chatham | 16,665 | 47.03% | 18,361 | 51.82% | 408 | 1.15% | −1,696 | −4.79% | 35,434 |
| Cherokee | 9,278 | 72.11% | 3,378 | 26.25% | 211 | 1.64% | 5,900 | 45.86% | 12,867 |
| Chowan | 3,891 | 51.85% | 3,556 | 47.38% | 58 | 0.77% | 335 | 4.47% | 7,505 |
| Clay | 3,973 | 70.42% | 1,579 | 27.99% | 90 | 1.59% | 2,394 | 42.43% | 5,642 |
| Cleveland | 25,793 | 59.51% | 17,062 | 39.37% | 485 | 1.12% | 8,731 | 20.14% | 43,340 |
| Columbus | 12,941 | 53.38% | 11,050 | 45.58% | 252 | 1.04% | 1,891 | 7.80% | 24,243 |
| Craven | 26,928 | 58.32% | 18,763 | 40.64% | 479 | 1.04% | 8,165 | 17.68% | 46,170 |
| Cumberland | 50,666 | 39.69% | 75,792 | 59.38% | 1,183 | 0.93% | −25,126 | −19.69% | 127,641 |
| Currituck | 7,496 | 66.31% | 3,562 | 31.51% | 246 | 2.18% | 3,934 | 34.80% | 11,304 |
| Dare | 10,248 | 57.02% | 7,393 | 41.13% | 333 | 1.85% | 2,855 | 15.89% | 17,974 |
| Davidson | 49,383 | 69.62% | 20,624 | 29.07% | 928 | 1.31% | 28,759 | 40.55% | 70,935 |
| Davie | 14,687 | 71.05% | 5,735 | 27.75% | 248 | 1.20% | 8,952 | 43.30% | 20,670 |
| Duplin | 11,416 | 55.44% | 9,033 | 43.87% | 143 | 0.69% | 2,383 | 11.57% | 20,592 |
| Durham | 33,769 | 23.01% | 111,224 | 75.80% | 1,742 | 1.19% | −77,455 | −52.79% | 146,735 |
| Edgecombe | 8,546 | 31.68% | 18,310 | 67.89% | 116 | 0.43% | −9,764 | −36.21% | 26,972 |
| Forsyth | 79,768 | 45.83% | 92,323 | 53.04% | 1,978 | 1.13% | −12,555 | −7.21% | 174,069 |
| Franklin | 14,603 | 51.44% | 13,436 | 47.33% | 350 | 1.23% | 1,167 | 4.11% | 28,389 |
| Gaston | 56,138 | 62.04% | 33,171 | 36.66% | 1,174 | 1.30% | 22,967 | 25.38% | 90,483 |
| Gates | 2,564 | 47.52% | 2,786 | 51.63% | 46 | 0.85% | −222 | −4.11% | 5,396 |
| Graham | 2,750 | 69.67% | 1,119 | 28.35% | 78 | 1.98% | 1,631 | 41.32% | 3,947 |
| Granville | 12,405 | 47.21% | 13,598 | 51.75% | 272 | 1.04% | −1,193 | −4.54% | 26,275 |
| Greene | 4,411 | 53.56% | 3,778 | 45.87% | 47 | 0.57% | 633 | 7.69% | 8,236 |
| Guilford | 104,789 | 41.28% | 146,365 | 57.66% | 2,698 | 1.06% | −41,576 | −16.38% | 253,852 |
| Halifax | 8,763 | 33.60% | 17,176 | 65.86% | 140 | 0.54% | −8,413 | −32.26% | 26,079 |
| Harnett | 25,565 | 58.89% | 17,331 | 39.92% | 519 | 1.19% | 8,234 | 18.97% | 43,415 |
| Haywood | 15,633 | 55.88% | 11,833 | 42.30% | 508 | 1.82% | 3,800 | 13.58% | 27,974 |
| Henderson | 32,994 | 62.98% | 18,642 | 35.58% | 756 | 1.44% | 14,352 | 27.40% | 52,392 |
| Hertford | 3,007 | 27.54% | 7,843 | 71.84% | 68 | 0.62% | −4,836 | −44.30% | 10,918 |
| Hoke | 6,819 | 39.90% | 10,076 | 58.96% | 194 | 1.14% | −3,257 | −19.06% | 17,089 |
| Hyde | 1,193 | 50.06% | 1,163 | 48.80% | 27 | 1.14% | 30 | 1.26% | 2,383 |
| Iredell | 49,299 | 64.56% | 26,076 | 34.15% | 990 | 1.29% | 23,223 | 30.41% | 76,365 |
| Jackson | 8,254 | 49.42% | 8,095 | 48.47% | 352 | 2.11% | 159 | 0.95% | 16,701 |
| Johnston | 48,427 | 63.15% | 27,290 | 35.58% | 974 | 1.27% | 21,137 | 27.57% | 76,691 |
| Jones | 2,837 | 54.24% | 2,352 | 44.97% | 41 | 0.79% | 485 | 9.27% | 5,230 |
| Lee | 13,158 | 54.28% | 10,801 | 44.56% | 280 | 1.16% | 2,357 | 9.72% | 24,239 |
| Lenoir | 13,980 | 49.78% | 13,948 | 49.66% | 158 | 0.56% | 32 | 0.12% | 28,086 |
| Lincoln | 25,267 | 68.71% | 11,024 | 29.98% | 484 | 1.31% | 14,243 | 38.73% | 36,775 |
| Macon | 10,835 | 64.26% | 5,712 | 33.88% | 314 | 1.86% | 5,123 | 30.38% | 16,861 |
| Madison | 5,404 | 53.44% | 4,484 | 44.34% | 225 | 2.22% | 920 | 9.10% | 10,113 |
| Martin | 5,995 | 47.38% | 6,583 | 52.03% | 74 | 0.59% | −588 | −4.65% | 12,652 |
| McDowell | 11,775 | 65.06% | 6,031 | 33.32% | 293 | 1.62% | 5,744 | 31.74% | 18,099 |
| Mecklenburg | 171,668 | 38.24% | 272,262 | 60.65% | 4,970 | 1.11% | −100,594 | −22.41% | 448,900 |
| Mitchell | 5,806 | 74.77% | 1,838 | 23.67% | 121 | 1.56% | 3,968 | 51.10% | 7,765 |
| Montgomery | 6,404 | 57.02% | 4,706 | 41.90% | 121 | 1.08% | 1,698 | 15.12% | 11,231 |
| Moore | 29,495 | 63.55% | 16,505 | 35.56% | 415 | 0.89% | 12,990 | 27.99% | 46,415 |
| Nash | 23,842 | 49.17% | 24,313 | 50.14% | 337 | 0.69% | −471 | −0.97% | 48,492 |
| New Hanover | 53,385 | 51.52% | 48,668 | 46.96% | 1,575 | 1.52% | 4,717 | 4.56% | 103,628 |
| Northampton | 3,483 | 32.38% | 7,232 | 67.24% | 41 | 0.38% | −3,749 | −34.86% | 10,756 |
| Onslow | 32,243 | 62.69% | 18,490 | 35.95% | 702 | 1.36% | 13,753 | 26.74% | 51,435 |
| Orange | 21,539 | 28.06% | 53,901 | 70.22% | 1,317 | 1.72% | −32,362 | −42.16% | 76,757 |
| Pamlico | 4,051 | 59.91% | 2,647 | 39.15% | 64 | 0.94% | 1,404 | 20.76% | 6,762 |
| Pasquotank | 7,633 | 42.15% | 10,282 | 56.78% | 192 | 1.07% | −2,649 | −14.63% | 18,107 |
| Pender | 14,617 | 59.60% | 9,632 | 39.27% | 278 | 1.13% | 4,985 | 20.33% | 24,527 |
| Perquimans | 3,822 | 57.46% | 2,759 | 41.48% | 71 | 1.06% | 1,063 | 15.98% | 6,652 |
| Person | 10,496 | 54.94% | 8,418 | 44.06% | 192 | 1.00% | 2,078 | 10.88% | 19,106 |
| Pitt | 36,214 | 45.92% | 41,843 | 53.06% | 799 | 1.02% | −5,629 | −7.14% | 78,856 |
| Polk | 6,236 | 60.03% | 4,013 | 38.63% | 140 | 1.34% | 2,223 | 21.40% | 10,389 |
| Randolph | 45,160 | 74.38% | 14,773 | 24.33% | 782 | 1.29% | 30,387 | 50.05% | 60,715 |
| Richmond | 9,332 | 48.06% | 9,904 | 51.01% | 181 | 0.93% | −572 | −2.95% | 19,417 |
| Robeson | 17,510 | 40.77% | 24,988 | 58.18% | 448 | 1.05% | −7,478 | −17.41% | 42,946 |
| Rockingham | 25,227 | 60.04% | 16,351 | 38.91% | 442 | 1.05% | 8,876 | 21.13% | 42,020 |
| Rowan | 38,775 | 62.23% | 22,650 | 36.35% | 887 | 1.42% | 16,125 | 25.88% | 62,312 |
| Rutherford | 18,954 | 66.04% | 9,374 | 32.66% | 374 | 1.30% | 9,580 | 33.38% | 28,702 |
| Sampson | 14,422 | 55.10% | 11,566 | 44.19% | 186 | 0.71% | 2,856 | 10.91% | 26,174 |
| Scotland | 5,831 | 41.19% | 8,215 | 58.03% | 110 | 0.78% | −2,384 | −16.84% | 14,156 |
| Stanly | 19,904 | 69.31% | 8,431 | 29.36% | 382 | 1.33% | 11,473 | 39.95% | 28,717 |
| Stokes | 15,237 | 70.48% | 6,018 | 27.84% | 364 | 1.68% | 9,219 | 42.64% | 21,619 |
| Surry | 19,923 | 67.60% | 9,112 | 30.92% | 435 | 1.48% | 10,811 | 36.68% | 29,470 |
| Swain | 2,976 | 51.96% | 2,618 | 45.71% | 134 | 2.33% | 358 | 6.25% | 5,728 |
| Transylvania | 9,634 | 57.47% | 6,826 | 40.72% | 303 | 1.81% | 2,808 | 16.75% | 16,763 |
| Tyrrell | 930 | 52.16% | 837 | 46.94% | 16 | 0.90% | 93 | 5.22% | 1,783 |
| Union | 61,107 | 64.51% | 32,473 | 34.28% | 1,148 | 1.21% | 28,634 | 30.23% | 94,728 |
| Vance | 7,429 | 35.62% | 13,323 | 63.89% | 102 | 0.49% | −5,894 | −28.27% | 20,854 |
| Wake | 211,596 | 43.50% | 267,262 | 54.94% | 7,569 | 1.56% | −55,666 | −11.44% | 486,427 |
| Warren | 3,140 | 30.90% | 6,978 | 68.67% | 44 | 0.43% | −3,838 | −37.77% | 10,162 |
| Washington | 2,622 | 40.34% | 3,833 | 58.98% | 44 | 0.68% | −1,211 | −18.64% | 6,499 |
| Watauga | 13,861 | 50.09% | 13,002 | 46.98% | 811 | 2.93% | 859 | 3.11% | 27,674 |
| Wayne | 27,641 | 53.83% | 23,314 | 45.40% | 397 | 0.77% | 4,327 | 8.43% | 51,352 |
| Wilkes | 20,515 | 70.39% | 8,148 | 27.96% | 482 | 1.65% | 12,367 | 42.43% | 29,145 |
| Wilson | 17,954 | 45.91% | 20,875 | 53.38% | 280 | 0.71% | −2,921 | −7.47% | 39,109 |
| Yadkin | 12,578 | 74.81% | 3,957 | 23.54% | 278 | 1.65% | 8,621 | 51.27% | 16,813 |
| Yancey | 5,278 | 55.85% | 3,981 | 42.12% | 192 | 2.03% | 1,297 | 13.73% | 9,451 |
| Totals | 2,270,395 | 50.39% | 2,178,391 | 48.35% | 56,586 | 1.26% | 92,004 | 2.04% | 4,505,372 |
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic |
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Caswell (largest town: Yanceyville)
- Hyde (largest community: Ocracoke)
- Jackson (largest town: Cullowhee)
- Watauga (largest town: Boone)
- Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Nash (largest city: Rocky Mount)
By congressional district
[edit]Romney won 10 of the state's 13 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.
| District | Romney | Obama | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 27.88% | 71.60% | G. K. Butterfield |
| 2nd | 57.26% | 41.71% | Renee Ellmers |
| 3rd | 57.99% | 41.01% | Walter B. Jones |
| 4th | 27.41% | 71.43% | David Price |
| 5th | 59.06% | 39.77% | Virginia Foxx |
| 6th | 57.65% | 41.34% | Howard Coble |
| 7th | 59.24% | 39.86% | Mike McIntyre |
| 8th | 58.06% | 41.00% | Larry Kissell |
| Richard Hudson | |||
| 9th | 56.19% | 42.81% | Sue Myrick |
| Robert Pittenger | |||
| 10th | 58.00% | 40.89% | Patrick McHenry |
| 11th | 60.90% | 37.79% | Heath Shuler |
| Mark Meadows | |||
| 12th | 20.79% | 78.54% | Mel Watt |
| 13th | 55.45% | 43.53% | Brad Miller |
| George Holding |
| Elections in North Carolina |
|---|
 |
 2012 U.S. presidential election | |
|---|---|
| Democratic Party | |
| Republican Party | |
| Minor parties | |
| Related races | |
| |
See also
[edit]- 2012 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
- 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
- Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
- North Carolina Republican Party
References
[edit]- ^ a b c "North Carolina Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved November 14, 2012.
- ^ "NC - Election Results". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Retrieved September 18, 2016.
- ^ "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 12, 2012.
- ^ "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
- ^ a b c "North Carolina Republican". The Green Papers. Retrieved November 14, 2012.
- ^ Memoli, Michael A. (April 25, 2012). "RNC officially names Mitt Romney the party's 'presumptive nominee'". LA Times. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ a b "RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama". Archived from the original on May 4, 2011.
- ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
- ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
- ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
- ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
- ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
- ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
- ^ "North Carolina State Board of Elections". Archived from the original on November 25, 2012. Retrieved November 14, 2012.
External links
[edit]- North Carolina State Board of Elections
- North Carolina Democratic Party
- North Carolina Republican Party
- The Green Papers: for North Carolina
- The Green Papers: Major state elections in chronological order
