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List of marginal seats before the 2015 United Kingdom general election

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This article describes the likely or potential target seats at the United Kingdom general election of 2015 that was held on 7 May 2015.

In January 2013, Labour published its list of 106 target seats for the next election.[1] UKIP's list of 12 target seats was reported in August 2014,[2] and others external to UKIP have highlighted seats where UKIP may be strongest.[3] A list of Conservative non-target seats was deduced in February 2015.[4] The Green Party of England & Wales describe having 12 target constituencies, including their one current seat.[5][6]

Below are the most marginal seats listed by the party in second for those parties which won seats at the 2005 or 2010 general elections, ranked by the percentage swing required. These may not be the seats where parties choose to target their resources. Opinion polling in individual constituencies is also another indicator for possible target seats.

List by party

[edit]

Conservative

[edit]
Conservative target seats[7]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2010 Swing
required 		Winning party 2015
1 Hampstead and Kilburn Labour 0.04% Labour
2 Bolton West Labour 0.10% Conservative
3 Solihull Liberal Democrats 0.16% Conservative
4 Southampton Itchen Labour 0.22% Conservative
5 Mid Dorset and North Poole Liberal Democrats 0.29% Conservative
6 Wirral South Labour 0.66% Labour
7 Derby North Labour 0.68% Conservative
8 Wells Liberal Democrats 0.72% Conservative
9 Dudley North Labour 0.84% Labour
10 Great Grimsby Labour 1.08% Labour
11 Morley and Outwood Labour 1.13% Conservative
12 Telford Labour 1.19% Conservative
13 Walsall North Labour 1.37% Labour
14 St Austell and Newquay Liberal Democrats 1.39% Conservative
15 Somerton and Frome Liberal Democrats 1.50% Conservative
16 Birmingham Edgbaston Labour 1.54% Labour
17 Sutton and Cheam Liberal Democrats 1.66% Conservative
18 Halifax Labour 1.69% Labour
19 Newcastle-under-Lyme Labour 1.80% Labour
20 Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Labour 1.82% Labour
21 Wakefield Labour 1.82% Labour
22 St. Ives Liberal Democrats 1.87% Conservative
23 Plymouth Moor View Labour 1.91% Conservative
24 Gedling Labour 1.93% Labour
25 Eltham Labour 1.98% Labour
26 Walsall South Labour 2.15% Labour
27 Nottingham South Labour 2.17% Labour

Labour

[edit]
Labour target seats[8]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2010 Swing
required 		Winning party 2015
1 North Warwickshire Conservative 0.05% Conservative
2 Thurrock Conservative 0.10% Conservative
3 Hendon Conservative 0.12% Conservative
4 Cardiff North Conservative 0.20% Conservative
5 Sherwood Conservative 0.22% Conservative
6 Norwich South Liberal Democrats 0.32% Labour
7 Stockton South Conservative 0.33% Conservative
8 Broxtowe Conservative 0.37% Conservative
9 Lancaster and Fleetwood Conservative 0.39% Labour
10 Bradford East Liberal Democrats 0.45% Labour
11 Amber Valley Conservative 0.58% Conservative
12 Waveney Conservative 0.75% Conservative
13 Wolverhampton South West Conservative 0.85% Labour
14 Morecambe and Lunesdale Conservative 1.00% Conservative
15 Carlisle Conservative 1.01% Conservative
16 Stroud Conservative 1.12% Conservative
17 Weaver Vale Conservative 1.13% Conservative
18 Lincoln Conservative 1.16% Conservative
19 Brighton Pavilion Green 1.21% Green
20 Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Conservative 1.31% Conservative
21 Dewsbury Conservative 1.41% Labour
22 Warrington South Conservative 1.42% Conservative
23 Brent Central Liberal Democrats 1.48% Labour
24 Bedford Conservative 1.50% Conservative
25 Brighton Kemptown Conservative 1.56% Conservative
26 Pudsey Conservative 1.69% Conservative
27 Brentford and Isleworth Conservative 1.82% Labour

Liberal Democrats

[edit]
Liberal Democrats target seats[9]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2010 Swing
required 		Winning party 2015
1 Camborne and Redruth Conservative 0.08% Conservative
2 Oldham East and Saddleworth[note 1] Labour 0.12% Labour
3 Oxford West and Abingdon Conservative 0.16% Conservative
4 Ashfield Labour 0.20% Labour
5 Sheffield Central Labour 0.20% Labour
6 Edinburgh South Labour 0.36% Labour
7 Truro and Falmouth Conservative 0.45% Conservative
8 Newton Abbot Conservative 0.55% Conservative
9 Chesterfield Labour 0.60% Labour
10 Swansea West Labour 0.71% Labour
11 Kingston upon Hull North Labour 0.96% Labour
12 Rochdale Labour 0.97% Labour
13 Harrogate and Knaresborough Conservative 0.98% Conservative
14 Watford Conservative 1.29% Conservative
15 Hampstead and Kilburn Labour 1.51% Labour
16 Montgomeryshire Conservative 1.75% Conservative
17 Edinburgh North and Leith Labour 1.82% SNP
18 St. Albans Conservative 2.19% Conservative
19 Newport East Labour 2.39% Labour
20 Weston-super-Mare Conservative 2.56% Conservative
21 Hereford and Herefordshire South Conservative 2.57% Conservative
22 Torridge and West Devon Conservative 2.68% Conservative
23 Winchester Conservative 2.73% Conservative
24 Northampton North Conservative 3.09% Conservative
25 South East Cornwall Conservative 3.25% Conservative
26 Bristol North West Conservative 3.25% Conservative
27 City of Durham Labour 3.32% Labour

SNP

[edit]
SNP target seats
Rank Constituency Winning party 2010 Swing
required 		Winning party 2015
1 Ochil and South Perthshire Labour 5.14% SNP

Plaid Cymru

[edit]
Plaid Cymru target seats
Rank Constituency Winning party 2010 Swing
required 		Winning party 2015
1 Ynys Môn Labour 3.55% Labour Labour Labour

Green Party

[edit]
Green Party target seats
Rank Constituency Winning party 2010 Swing
required 		Winning party 2015
1 Norwich South Liberal Democrats 7.20% Labour Labour Labour

Respect Party

[edit]
Respect Party target seats
Rank Constituency Winning party 2010 Swing
required 		Winning party 2015
1 Birmingham Hall Green Labour 3.9% Labour Labour Labour

Northern Ireland

[edit]
Sinn Féin targets Swing required SDLP targets Swing required DUP targets Swing required Alliance targets Swing required
1 Belfast North (DUP) 3.01% Newry and Armagh (SF) 9.3% Belfast East (Alliance) 2.22% Belfast South (SDLP) 15.00%

Notes

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  1. ^ As compared to the 2010 general election result, not the 2011 by-election result.

References

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  1. ^ "List of Labour's 106 target seats for 2015". Politicshome.com. Archived from the original on 19 January 2013. Retrieved 3 May 2013.
  2. ^ Holehouse, Matthew (26 August 2014). "Ukip to target Tory ministers' seats". Telegraph.co.uk.
  3. ^ Roberts, Marcus. "REVOLT ON THE LEFT Labour's UKIP problem and how it can be overcome" (PDF). Fabian Society.
  4. ^ "Leaked list shows Tories are not competing in five likely marginals". May2015: 2015 General Election Guide. Retrieved 7 March 2015.
  5. ^ "Will you pledge to vote Green?". Archived from the original on 9 March 2015. Retrieved 7 March 2015.
  6. ^ "The Granola Pact: is there a rift between Natalie Bennett and Caroline Lucas?". Retrieved 7 March 2015.
  7. ^ "CONSERVATIVE TARGET SEATS". ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 22 September 2013.
  8. ^ "Labour Targets". ukpollingreport.co.uk.
  9. ^ "LIBERAL DEMOCRAT TARGET SEATS". ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 22 September 2013.

See also

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