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Helmut Norpoth

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Helmut Norpoth
Born1943 (age 80–81)
Essen, Nazi Germany
Alma materUniversity of Michigan
Known forPredicting election results
Scientific career
FieldsPolitical science
InstitutionsStony Brook University
ThesisSources of party cohesion in the U.S. House of Representatives (1974)

Helmut Norpoth (born 1943) is an American political scientist and professor of political science at Stony Brook University. Norpoth is best known for developing the Primary Model to predict United States presidential elections. Norpoth's model has successfully matched the results of 25 out of 29 United States presidential elections since 1912, with the exceptions being those in 1960, 2000, 2020, and 2024.

Early life, education, and career

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Norpoth was born in Essen, Germany, in 1943. He received his undergraduate degree from the Free University of Berlin in West Berlin in 1966. He then attended the University of Michigan, where he received his M.A. and Ph.D. in 1967 and 1974, respectively. Before joining Stony Brook University as an assistant professor in 1979, he taught at the University of Arizona (he had been a visiting lecturer in its political science department in 1978), the University of Cologne, and the University of Texas at Austin. In 1980, Norpoth was promoted to associate professor at Stony Brook University and became a tenured full professor there in 1985.[1]

Research

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Norpoth's research focuses on multiple subjects in political science, including public opinion and electoral behavior, and predicting the results of elections in the United States, Great Britain, and Germany.[1] Alongside fellow political scientist Michael Lewis-Beck, he is the co-author of The American Voter Revisited, a 2008 book published by the University of Michigan Press the covering the images of presidential candidates, party identification, and why Americans turn out to vote.[2][3] He also wrote Confidence Regained: Economics, Mrs. Thatcher, and the British Voter, a 1992 book published by the University of Michigan Press about public reactions to Margaret Thatcher, especially her economic and foreign policies.[4][5] Other articles written by Norpoth include "Fighting to Win: Wartime Morale in the American Public" with Andrew H. Sidman (2012), "Yes, Prime Minister: The Key to Forecasting British Elections" with Matthew Lebo (2011), "The New Deal Realignment in Real Time" with Andrew H. Sidman and Clara Suong, "History and Primary: The Obama Re-Election" with Michael Bednarczuk, and "Guns 'N Jobs: The FDR Legacy" with Alexa Bankert.[1]

Election model

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Norpoth developed the Primary Model, a statistical model of United States presidential elections based on data going back to 1912. Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from a candidate's performance in the primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results through the Primary Model.[6][7] The Primary Model is based on two factors: whether the party that has been in power for a long time seems to be about to lose it, and whether a given candidate did better in the primaries than his or her opponent. The Primary Model was first used in the 1996 election,[8] and correctly predicted Barack Obama's re-election as early as February 2012 and the election of Donald Trump in 2016.[5]

Norpoth's election model had predicted 25 out of the past 29 elections, with 1960, 2000, 2020, and 2024 as misses.[9]

Recent misses

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2016

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In February 2015, Norpoth projected that Republicans had a 65 percent chance of winning the presidential election the following year.[10] In February 2016, he had predicted a Trump victory with 97 percent certainty,[11] and by October 2016, citing Trump's performance in the primaries, his election model projected a win for Trump with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent, in contrast to all major election forecast.[7] As a result, Norpoth's election model gained significant media attention because it predicted that Trump would win the election.[12] Despite the attention for predicting Trump would win in 2016, Norpoth's election model only said that Trump would win the two-party popular vote 52.5% to 47.5%; Trump actually lost the 2016 two-party popular vote 48.2% to 46.1%, and the Primary Model for the next elections was modified to predict only the Electoral College votes as a result. In response to critics who cited polls in which Hillary Clinton led Trump by a significant margin,[13] Norpoth said that these polls were not taking into account who will actually vote in November 2016, writing that "nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."[7]

2020

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On March 2, 2020, Norpoth stated that his model gave Trump a 91 percent chance at winning re-election.[14][15] His model also predicted that Trump would win with up to 362 electoral votes. This would have required Trump to have flipped several Clinton states from 2016; however, this prediction proved to be inaccurate. Trump did not flip any states Clinton won in 2016 and ended up losing five states plus one electoral vote in Nebraska that he won in 2016, ultimately losing the election with 232 electoral votes to Biden's 306 electoral votes. Norpoth cited a "perfect storm" of subsequent surprise events following his prediction that were not taken into account, notably the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, which led to lockdowns, beginning only a few weeks after his prediction, and an economic downturn, which was not improved due to perceived inadequate response by Trump. The pandemic also led to an increase in mail-in and absentee ballots, which would lean toward the Democratic candidate. The George Floyd protests were also cited as a factor.[16]

2024

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The Primary Model for 2024 predicted a victory for Kamala Harris at 75 percent. Before the withdrawal of Joe Biden from the presidential election, the Primary Model had also given Biden a 75 percent chance to defeat Trump[17]; this was because Biden was the incumbent and had won the Democratic primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina by larger margins than Trump had in the Republican primaries. Norpoth thus predicted an election win for Biden based on the similar positive results for Trump in the 2020 Republican primaries (and which the Primary Model had incorrectly predicted would lead to a Trump victory).[18] Biden would therefore secure 315 electoral votes and Trump 223 electoral votes.[5] Harris ultimately lost to Trump, winning only 226 electoral votes to Trump's 312 electoral votes.

References

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  1. ^ a b c "Helmut Norpoth". Stony Brook University. Archived from the original on August 23, 2018. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  2. ^ Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Jacoby, William G.; Norpoth, Helmut; Weisberg, Herbert F.; Converse, Philip E. (2008). The American Voter Revisited. University of Michigan Press. doi:10.3998/mpub.92266. ISBN 978-0-472-07040-4. Archived from the original on May 22, 2019.
  3. ^ Dodson, Kyle (2009). "The American Voter, Revisited (review)". Social Forces. 88 (2): 986–987. ISSN 1534-7605. Archived from the original on September 6, 2024.
  4. ^ Butler, David (June 1993). "Confidence Regained: Economics, Mrs. Thatcher, and the British Voter. By Helmut Norpoth. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1992. 229p. $34.50". American Political Science Review. 87 (2): 531–531. doi:10.2307/2939111. ISSN 1537-5943. Archived from the original on September 6, 2024.
  5. ^ a b c "Helmut Norpoth". Stony Brook Experts. Archived from the original on September 6, 2024. Retrieved August 27, 2020.
  6. ^ Cameron, Christopher (February 23, 2016). "Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner". The Statesman. Archived from the original on December 30, 2019. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  7. ^ a b c Tampone, Kevin (October 19, 2016). "SUNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls 'bunk'". Syracuse.com. Archived from the original on February 4, 2024. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  8. ^ Collins, Ben (October 27, 2016). "Meet the Professor Whose 'Primary Model' Says Trump Has 87% Chance to Win". The Daily Beast. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on October 12, 2022. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  9. ^ Robert, Robert (August 3, 2020). "Maverick Modeller Helmut Norpoth Predicts Another Win for Trump". SBU News. Archived from the original on February 24, 2024. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  10. ^ Roarty, Alex (February 13, 2015). "Why Hillary Clinton Isn't the Favorite After All". The Atlantic. ISSN 2151-9463. Archived from the original on March 27, 2023. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  11. ^ Herbert, Geoff Herbert (February 25, 2016). "Donald Trump will be president, SUNY professor predicts with 97 percent certainty". Syracuse.com. Archived from the original on December 28, 2019. Retrieved September 6, 2024. Updated March 22, 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: postscript (link)
  12. ^ Mortimer, Caroline (October 27, 2016). "Donald Trump will win, claims man who correctly predicted almost every US presidential election". The Independent. ISSN 1741-9743. Archived from the original on September 6, 2024. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  13. ^ Norpoth, Helmut (October 16, 2016). "You can't trust polls: Clinton leads, but our polling methods are bunk". The Hill. ISSN 1521-1568. Archived from the original on July 14, 2023. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  14. ^ Harper, Jennifer (July 5, 2020). "Professor: Trump has 91% chance to win". The Washington Times. ISSN 1941-0697. Archived from the original on October 2, 2022. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  15. ^ Hall, Louise (July 8, 2020). "Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor's model predicts". The Independent. ISSN 1741-9743. Archived from the original on September 17, 2022. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  16. ^ Losonczi, Márton (January 16, 2024). "Donald Trump Sweeps Iowa Caucus: A Good Omen?". Hungarian Conservative. ISSN 2732-3161. Archived from the original on January 16, 2024. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  17. ^ "Primary Model Gives President Biden 75 Per Cent Chance for Victory in 2024 — Is 'Old Joe' Really Cruising to Reelection?". HungarianConservative.com.
  18. ^ Lange, Björn-Michael (September 3, 2024). "DIY Guide Presidential Election – 13 Keys to the White House 2024 by Allan Lichtman – Final Prediction". DAJV. Archived from the original on September 3, 2024. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
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