2010 Idaho gubernatorial election
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 County results Otter: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Allred: 40–50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Idaho |
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The 2010 Idaho gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter won re-election, defeating his Democratic opponent Keith G. Allred.
A former Lieutenant Governor and U.S. Representative, Otter won an open seat race in 2006 against Democratic Party nominee Jerry Brady with 52.67% of the vote.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Walt Bayes, perennial candidate
- Fred Nichols
- Butch Otter, Governor of Idaho[1]
- Pete Peterson (endorsed independent candidate Jana Kemp, but still filed for the primary[2])
- Rex Rammell, veterinarian, conservative activist and independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008[3]
- Sharon Ullman, Ada County Commissioner[4]
- Tamara Wells
Campaign
[edit]Both Rammell and Ullman sought support from followers of the Tea Party movement by criticizing Otter's 2009 attempt to raise Idaho's gas tax.[5]
In August 2009, Rammell drew criticism for joking about buying a license to hunt President Barack Obama.[6]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Walt Bayes |
Butch Otter |
Ron"Pete" Peterson |
Rex Rammell |
Sharon Ullman |
Tamara Wells |
Un- decided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon (report) | May 17–19, 2010 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 1% | 60% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 25% |
Results
[edit]
Otter—70–80%
Otter—60–70%
Otter—50–60%
Otter—40–50%
Rammell—40–50%
Rammell—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Butch Otter (incumbent) | 89,117 | 54.6 | |
| Republican | Rex Rammell | 42,436 | 26.0 | |
| Republican | Sharon Ullman | 13,749 | 8.4 | |
| Republican | Pete Peterson | 8,402 | 5.2 | |
| Republican | Walt Bayes | 4,825 | 3.0 | |
| Republican | Tamara Wells | 4,544 | 2.8 | |
| Republican | Fred Nichols | 38 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 163,111 | 100 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]Declined
[edit]Results
[edit]
Allred—80–90%
Allred—70–80%
Allred—60–70%
Allred—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Keith Allred | 22,386 | 81.7 | |
| Democratic | Lee Chaney | 5,026 | 18.3 | |
| Total votes | 27,412 | 100 | ||
Third party candidates
[edit]Libertarian Party
[edit]- Ted Dunlap
Independents
[edit]- Jana Kemp, former Republican State Representative[2]
- Pro-Life (formerly known as Marvin Richardson), organic strawberry farmer, Constitution Party nominee for governor in 2006 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008[11]
General election
[edit]Campaign
[edit]Between January 1 and May 9, 2010, Allred led Otter in fundraising, having raised $241,000 to Otter's $193,000. Allred said, "We are picking up momentum and are right where we want to be." However, Otter limited his fundraising activity while the Idaho Legislature was in session.[12]
Allred has criticized Otter for backing cuts to public education spending, which led the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry to launch a website attacking Allred.[5]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[13] | Safe R | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[14] | Safe R | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[15] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Likely R | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[17] | Likely R | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Dates administered | Butch Otter (R) | Keith Allred (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[18] | August 31, 2010 | 52% | 36% |
| Rasmussen Reports[19] | July 15, 2010 | 53% | 36% |
| Rasmussen Reports[20] | May 11, 2010 | 54% | 32% |
| Rasmussen Reports[20] | March 23, 2010 | 60% | 28% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Butch Otter (incumbent) | 267,483 | 59.11% | +6.44% | |
| Democratic | Keith G. Allred | 148,680 | 32.85% | −11.25% | |
| Independent | Jana M. Kemp | 26,655 | 5.89% | ||
| Libertarian | Ted Dunlap | 5,867 | 1.30% | −0.31% | |
| Independent | Pro-Life | 3,850 | 0.85% | −0.77% | |
| Majority | 118,803 | 26.25% | +17.69% | ||
| Turnout | 452,535 | ||||
| Republican hold | Swing | ||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Ada (largest municipality: Boise)
- Bannock (largest municipality: Pocatello)
- Nez Perce (Largest city: Lewiston)
- Shoshone (Largest city: Kellogg)
- Valley (Largest city: McCall)
References
[edit]- ^ "Gov. Otter files candidacy papers for re-election". KBOI-TV. March 12, 2010. Archived from the original on July 18, 2011. Retrieved March 15, 2010.
- ^ a b "Three in, one out in Guv's race". The Spokesman-Review. March 8, 2010. Retrieved March 15, 2010.
- ^ Kunz, Aaron (May 13, 2009). "Rex Rammell Announcement To Run For Governor". KPVI-DT. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved March 15, 2010.
- ^ "Ada County Commissioner Sharon Ullman will run for governor in 2010". Idaho Statesman. July 14, 2009. Archived from the original on February 8, 2013. Retrieved March 15, 2010.
- ^ a b Miller, John (May 25, 2010). "Otter, Allred win their Idaho primaries". Idaho State Journal. Retrieved June 6, 2010.[permanent dead link]
- ^ "Idaho Republican, governor hopeful Rex Rammell makes 'Obama tags' joke about hunting President Obama". Daily News. August 28, 2009. Retrieved March 15, 2010.
- ^ a b "Idaho Governor Primary Results". The Associated Press. May 25, 2010. Retrieved May 25, 2010.
- ^ Popkey, Dan (December 11, 2009). "Keith Allred will run as a Democrat in Idaho's race for governor". Idaho Statesman. Retrieved March 15, 2010.
- ^ Kunz, Aaron (July 7, 2009). "Lee Chaney Runs for Governor as Democrat". KPVI-DT. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved March 15, 2009.
- ^ Brady done, but other Idaho Dems consider running again Accessed 16 August 2007 Archived July 18, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "Pro-Life For Governor, 2010". ProLifeIdaho.com. Archived from the original on September 14, 2010. Retrieved March 15, 2010.
- ^ Iverson-Long, Brad (May 18, 2010). "Allred leading Otter in fundraising so far in 2010". Idaho Reporter. Retrieved June 6, 2010.
- ^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ "Toplines - Idaho Governor - August 31, 2010 - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com.
- ^ "Toplines - 2010 Idaho Governor Election - July 15, 2010 - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com.
- ^ a b "Election 2010: Idaho Governor". www.rasmussenreports.com.
- ^ "2010 General Results statewide". Archived from the original on September 22, 2012. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
External links
[edit]- Idaho Office of Elections[permanent dead link]
- Idaho Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
- Campaign contributions for 2010 Idaho Governor from Follow the Money
- Idaho Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
- 2010 Idaho Gubernatorial General Election graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: Idaho Governor from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 Idaho Governor Race: Otter vs. Allred from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Idaho Governor's Race from CQ Politics
- Race Profile in The New York Times
Official campaign websites (Archived)