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Saudi Vision 2030
رؤية السعودية 2030
Program overview
Formed25 April 2016 (2016-04-25)
TypeDevelopment program
JurisdictionGovernment of Saudi Arabia
MottoSaudi Arabia the heart of the Arab and Islamic worlds, the investment powerhouse, and the hub connecting three continents
Minister responsible
Key document
Websitevision2030.gov.sa
Politics of Saudi Arabia

Arab League Member State of the Arab League

Basic Law
Monarchy
Government
Legal system
Recent elections
Administrative divisions
Foreign relations
flag Saudi Arabia portal

Saudi Vision 2030 (Arabic: رؤية السعودية 2030‎) is a plan to reduce Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil and diversify its economy through the development of sectors such as tourism, entertainment, infrastructure, renewable energy, healthcare and education. Specific aims include raising the government’s non-oil revenues, expanding the private sector, increasing FDI and outward investment, and raising female participation in the workforce.

Vision 2030 was announced on 25 April 2016 by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as President of the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, which oversees the program’s implementation.

Initiatives within Vision 2030 include fiscal rebalancing, capital market reforms, development projects such the proposed $500 billion mega-city Neom, and social reforms including new rights for women and restrictions on the powers of the religious police.

Background and aims

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As of 2018, the petroleum sector in Saudi Arabia accounts for 87% of government revenue and 42% of GDP.[1] Government spending, underwritten by oil revenues, is the main driver of the economy, and the public sector employs around twice as many Saudis as the private sector.[2] Reducing the economy’s dependence on oil and state spending has been a policy goal of the Saudi government since the 1970s, although the pace of implementation has often varied according to oil prices.[2]

Saudi Vision 2030 was formally announced by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on April 25, 2016, in Riyadh.[3] Its core aim is diversification of the Saudi economy, with the private sector becoming the primary source of growth.[2] Closely related aims are to develop alternative sources of government revenue and reduce citizens’ dependence on public spending.[2] The program also includes steps towards social liberalization.[2]

Vision 2030 is based on three ‘pillars’: Saudi Arabia’s status as the heart of the Arab and Islamic worlds, its aim of becoming a global investment powerhouse, and its aim to be a hub connecting three continents (Asia, Europe and Africa).[4]

Saudi Vision 2030’s objectives are grouped into three themes:

  1. A vibrant society: Includes promoting culture and entertainment, developing cities, improving healthcare, promoting environmental sustainability and developing world heritage sites.
  2. A thriving economy: Includes balancing public finances, increasing the role of the private sector, raising competitiveness, supporting SMEs, increasing female participation in the workforce and reforming education.
  3. An ambitious nation: Includes growing non-oil government revenues, increasing government spending efficiency and promoting e-government.[4]

Targets

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Some of the program’s main targets include:

  • Raising non-oil government revenues from $44 billion (2015) to $267 billion.
  • Increasing the private sector’s contribution to GDP from 40% to 65%.
  • Increasing FDI from 3.8% of GDP to 5.7%.
  • Reducing unemployment from 11.6% to 7%.
  • Raising female participation in the workforce from 22% to 30%.[4][5]

The program is directed by the Council of Economic and Development Affairs (CEDA), with support from the Ministry of Economy and Planning as well as other ministries and government entities.[6]

Development projects

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Beginning in 2017, a series of projects were announced to support diversification into sectors such as leisure and tourism, entertainment, artificial intelligence and renewable energy.

In April 2017 the government announced a project to build a 334 km2 entertainment city in Qiddiya, southwest of Riyadh.[7] Ground-breaking at Qiddiya began in April 2018.[8]

In July that year a royal commission was established to develop the region of Al-`Ula, which includes the 2,000 year-old Nabatean tombs of Mada'in Saleh, with the aim of opening it up to tourists.[9]

The following month a project was announced to build a tourist resort on the northern section of the Hejazi coast on the Red Sea.[10] The proposed resort covers 50 islands across 34,000 km2.[11]

Neom, a planned $500 billion mega-city covering 26,000 km2 in the northwest of Saudi Arabia, was announced in October 2017.[12] Neom aims to attract foreign investment in sectors such as biotechnology, robotics and AI, advanced manufacturing and renewable energy.[13]

City developments include the 2,450 km2 Al Faisaliah project in Mecca, the 1,250 km2 New Taif development in Taif, and the $4.8 billion ‘Jeddah Downtown’ project to redevelop the Jeddah waterfront.[14][15][16]

Capital markets and privatization

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The Saudi Stock Exchange (the Tadawul), began opening up to foreign investors in 2015, when access was given to institutions with more than $5 billion in assets.[17] In 2017 several banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs began expanding their Saudi operations.[18] Reforms issued by the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) in January 2018 further deregulated access to listed Saudi companies by raising foreign ownership ceilings and reducing requirements for assets under management.[19]

In March and June 2018 respectively, FTSE Russell and MSCI announced that they would include the Tadawul on their emerging markets indices.[20][21] Reforms cited included new rules on market-making, the formation of a single company to clear all trades, and a new mechanism for setting the closing price of shares. It was estimated the two inclusions would bring up to $75 billion of new capital into Saudi Arabia.[21] In July 2018 S&P Dow Jones Indices also gave the Tadawul emerging market status.[22]

Vision 2030’s privatization program aims to increase the private sector’s share of GDP from 40% to 65% by 2030, and to raise $10 billion by 2020 by selling state assets.[23] State-run organizations opened up to private investment in the initial phase include ports, hospitals, desalination plants and schools.[24][25]

In February 2018 a plan was announced to increase the role of the private sector in the housing market via $32 billion in subsidized home loans, a $4.8 billion loan guarantee program and $3.3 billion of down-payment support.[26][27]

Social and cultural developments

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Women’s rights

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A royal decree granting women the right to drive was issued in September 2017, taking effect in June the following year.[28][29] In February 2018 women became able to open a business without a male’s permission.[30] Later that month the first applications were opened for women to join the Saudi military.[31] As of June 2018, Saudi women can apply for work in the Public Prosecution Office, the General Directorate of Passports, and as notaries in the Ministry of Justice.[32][33][34] The number of women employed in the private sector was 600,000 in 2018, up from 90,000 in 2011.[35]

In March 2018 a law was passed allowing Saudi mothers to retain custody of their children after divorce without the need to file lawsuits.[36] A law criminalizing sexual harassment followed in May that year.[37]

These developments were overshadowed by the arrest in June 2018 of 17 women’s rights activists, including many who had campaigned for women driving.[38] Several remained in prison without legal representation.[39] In August that year the public prosecutor recommended the death penalty for Israa al-Ghomgham, a human rights advocate arrested in December 2015.[40]

Religious reforms

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In April 2016 the Saudi cabinet approved a change in the law which stripped the religious police of their power to arrest.[41] In October the following year the King Salman Complex for the Prophet’s Hadith was established to monitor interpretations of the Prophet Muhammad’s Hadiths and prevent them being used to justify terrorism.[42]

Entertainment

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In May 2016 the General Entertainment Authority was established to oversee the development of the sector in line with Vision 2030.[43] The Qiddiya entertainment city project was announced the following year, and in September 2017 the Public Investment Fund launched the Development and Investment Entertainment Company (DIEC) as an investment arm for entertainment, with an initial capitalization of $2.7 billion.[44][45]

In February 2018 the GEA announced it would spend $64 billion on the entertainment sector over the following ten years.[46] The first public cinema for 35 years opened in Riyadh in April that year, operated by US firm AMC Entertainment.[47] The GEA aims to open 300 cinemas by 2030.[48] In May 2018 DIEC announced plans to build a network of 20 entertainment centers in 14–15 cities.[49]

Sport

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Vision 2030 includes efforts to attract more international sport to Saudi Arabia. In March 2018 a ten-year partnership was announced between American sports entertainment company WWE and the General Sports Authority, which began with the Greatest Royal Rumble at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah on April 27.[50][51] The following month another ten-year deal was agreed with Formula E, which selected Riyadh to host the first race of its 2018/19 season.[52] On September 26, 2018, the World Boxing Super Series super-middleweight final between George Groves and Callum Smith took place at King Abdullah Sports City.[53]

Implementation

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Structure

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CEDA’s main roles are divided into three levels:

  1. Direction and decision-making: Including overall responsibility for identifying programs and initiatives, and establishing mechanisms for approving funding via the CEDA Finance Committee.
  2. Strategic development: Including proposing and developing strategies, supervising programs and developing initiatives via the CEDA Delivery Unit.
  3. Implementation: Including all ministries and other bodies responsible for delivery of projects, as well as promoting transparency via the ‘Adaa’ National Center for Performance Management.[54]

National Transformation Program

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The National Transformation Program (NTP) was launched in June 2016 as a set of economic reforms to be undertaken across 24 government bodies, with specific targets to be reached by 2020.[55] These included reducing spending on public sector wages from 45% to 40%, cutting water and electricity subsidies by $53 billion, increasing non-oil exports from $49 billion to $88 billion, and raising female participation in the workforce from 23% to 28%.[56]

In September 2017 the NTP was revised, retaining the main fiscal and energy-related targets while moving others to newly announced ‘Vision Realization Programs’ (VRPs).[57]

Vision Realization Programs

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Following the NTP and the Fiscal Balance Program announced in December 2016, 10 further ‘Vision Realization Programs’ (VRPs) were announced in May 2017, detailing objectives for 2020.[58][59] These include: The Privatization Program, which aims to expand the role of the private sector.[60] The Financial Sector Development Program, which aims to diversify financial services and develop capital markets.[61] The Public Investment Fund Program, which expands the PIF’s role in the development of new sectors.[61] The Housing Program, which aims to develop the residential construction sector and improve housing quality.[62]

The other VRPs announced were the Enriching the Hajj and Umrah Experience Program, the National Industrial Development and Logistics Program, the Lifestyle Improvement Program, the National Companies Promotion Program, the Strategic Partnerships Program, and the Saudi Character Enrichment Program.[59]

Role of the Public Investment Fund

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To support the aim of economic diversification the Public Investment Fund has expanded its international portfolio. Since 2017 the fund has made several investments outside Saudi Arabia, including $45 billion in the SoftBank Vision Fund, a private equity fund backed by Japan’s SoftBank; and a commitment of $20 billion to a US infrastructure fund managed by Blackstone.[63]

In May 2017 the Public Investment Fund launched a new defense company, Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI), with the goal of localizing 50% of Saudi Arabia’s military spending by 2030.[64]

Among the PIF’s aims are to manage $400 billion of assets by 2020 and to be the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund by 2030 with assets of more than $2 trillion.[65][66] In October 2018 Mohammed bin Salman said the fund had close to $400 billion in assets, and was expected to reach $600bn by 2020.[67]

Funding

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The Public Investment Fund Program announced in 2017 cited four major funding sources, namely government capital injections, government asset transfers, loans and debt instruments, and retained earnings from investments.[68]

In July 2018 the PIF began approaching banks to participate in a major loan, which was completed that September at a final sum of $11 billion.[69][70] The deal marked the first time the PIF had incorporated debt into its funding.[70]

One expected source of funding for the Public Investment Fund was government transfers of around $100 billion following an initial public offering (IPO) of a 5% stake in the state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco.[71] The IPO was postponed in August 2018, however, amid concerns that its $2 trillion valuation was unrealistic.[72] Since the IPO had been viewed as an important signal of transparency and reduced government involvement in the economy, its postponement was seen as a significant setback.[73] However Saudi officials stressed it would go ahead.[74]

In July 2018, Saudi Aramco announced it was in discussions to buy a stake in the chemical producer Saudi Basic Industries Corp (Sabic) from the PIF.[75] As of September 2018 the PIF owns 70% of Sabic, which has a market capitalization of $93 billion.[76]

International involvement

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International Monetary Fund

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Vision 2030 is supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).[77] The IMF’s 2016 country report on Saudi Arabia identified economic diversification, private sector job creation for nationals, and fiscal consolidation as the main policy priorities; and cited uncertainties about implementation, future oil prices and regional tensions as the main risks.[78] An IMF statement the following year stressed the importance of non-oil revenue reforms and noted the successful regulation of banks by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA).[79]

Following a country mission in 2018, the IMF confirmed progress in increasing non-oil revenues via the introduction of VAT, as well as in measures to increase fiscal transparency and broaden data coverage beyond central government.[80] At the same time however it warned against the temptation to re-expand spending as oil prices rebounded.[81]

Countries

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Relations between Saudi Arabia and China have strengthened since 1990, with bilateral trade reaching $43 billion in 2016.[82][83] Trade deals worth $65 billion were signed during a visit to China by King Salman in March 2017.[84] A further $70 billion of deals were agreed during a subsequent visit to Saudi Arabia by China’s then-Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli.[85]

A joint Saudi-Japanese Group for Vision 2030 was formed in October 2016, which later announced plans for bilateral cooperation across energy, infrastructure, investment, healthcare, entertainment, media, SMEs, agriculture, food security, culture, sports and education.[86][87]

In October 2017 a Korea-Saudi Vision 2030 committee was established, identifying 40 joint projects across sectors including solar and nuclear energy, shipbuilding, desalination, robotics, smart infrastructure and healthcare.[88][89] These included a project to design compact nuclear plants, to be constructed in Saudi Arabia.[88]

Multinationals

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In June 2016 Cisco Systems signed an MoU to develop Saudi Arabia’s digital infrastructure in support of the Vision 2030 goal of 90% high-speed broadband coverage in densely populated cities.[90] In February 2018 Cisco also signed an MoU with Saudi Telecom Company (STC) to develop 5G mobile networks.[91]

In October 2017 the PIF pledged $20 billion to a $40 billion fund managed by Blackstone to invest in US infrastructure.[92] In June the following year Blackstone raised an initial $5 billion, half of which came from the PIF.[93] Following the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman pulled out of the 2018 Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh. However the firm stressed its continued commitment to its relationship with Saudi Arabia.[93]

At the 2017 Future Investment Initiative, a $1 billion deal was announced between the PIF and Virgin Galactic and its spin-off companies.[94] The deal included an advisory role for Virgin CEO Richard Branson on the board of the Red Sea tourism project.[95] After the killing of Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018, Richard Branson announced the suspension of talks between Saudi Arabia and Virgin Galactic, and put on hold his directorships at the Red Sea and Qiddiya projects, saying that he had had “high hopes for the current government in the kingdom and its leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman”, but that “the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, if proved true, would clearly change the ability of any of us in the west to do business with the Saudi government.”[96]

Following the PIF’s $45 billion investment in the SoftBank Vision Fund in October 2017, in March 2018 it was announced that the Vision Fund would develop a solar project targeting 200GW capacity by 2030, at an investment total of around $200 billion.[97]

In April 2018 the US movie theater chain AMC Entertainment signed an agreement with the Development and Investment Entertainment Company (DIEC), a PIF subsidiary, to operate the first public cinemas in Saudi Arabia for 35 years, the first of which opened that month.[98][99] AMC said it planned to open 40 cinemas in 15 cities over the following five years.[98]

During US President Donald Trump’s 2018 visit to Saudi Arabia General Electric announced $15 billion of deals, mainly in power generation.[100][101]

Critical reactions

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Commonly cited concerns about the viability of Vision 2030 include doubts about the Aramco IPO, whose $2 trillion target valuation has been described by many analysts as unachievable[102], the impact of spending cuts on the economy[103], dependence on foreign labor[104], rising unemployment among Saudis[102], the war in Yemen and the dispute with Qatar[105], a perceived lack of political reform[106], and the religious establishment’s opposition to social liberalization[103]. Commentators have also speculated that the program’s targets are overambitious.[107][108]

Skeptics have also suggested possible structural impediments including weak institutions, an inefficient bureaucracy and significant skills gaps. The private sector relies on low-cost expat labor, with lower salaries and longer working hours presenting a major obstacle to increasing the number of Saudis engaged in private enterprise.[2]

The Saudi economy went into recession in 2017, returning to growth the following year as oil prices rose, leading to questions about the progress of reforms aimed at reducing dependence on oil revenue.[102] Capital flight in 2017 amounted to $80 billion, spurred by the anti-corruption crackdown in September that year.[109]

In June 2018 UNCTAD reported that FDI to Saudi Arabia fell from $7.5 billion in 2016 to $1.4 billion in 2017, although it added that some of the fall was attributable to divestments by foreign multinationals.[110] Additional concerns among investors in mid-2018 included the slow pace of privatization, low growth in the non-oil economy, and questions about the rule of law following the detention of women’s rights activists in May.[102]

The killing of Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018 prompted new doubts about Saudi Arabia’s ability to attract outside investment.[111] Prominent business leaders pulled out of the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh that month, although some western firms including JPMorgan and HSBC sent replacement representatives, while the delegations from Russia and China were unaffected.[112][113][114] Among those to withdraw from the event was BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who said later however that he would not be cutting ties with Saudi Arabia.[115]

See also

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References

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Category:Economic history of Saudi Arabia Category:Economy of Saudi Arabia Category:2016 in Saudi Arabia Category:2030 Category:Projects established in 2016 Category:2030 in Saudi Arabia

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