2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
	Shaheen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90%; Sununu: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%; Tie: 40–50%
U.S. senator before election; John E. Sununu; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; Jeanne Shaheen; Democratic

The United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John E. Sununu ran for re-election to a second term, but was defeated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in a rematch of the 2002 election. Shaheen's win marked the first time since 1972 that Democrats won this seat, and made her the first Democratic Senator elected from New Hampshire since John A. Durkin's victory in 1975.

Background

For a considerable amount of time, New Hampshire had always been considered an island of conservatism in the Northeast. Following the 2006 election, however, many offices were taken over by Democrats: Representatives Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes, Governor John Lynch, the majority of the New Hampshire Executive Council, and the majority of both legislative chambers (which had not occurred since 1911).^[1] The popularity of Governor Lynch was considered an impediment to Sununu's re-election.^[2] Though the state voted for then-Gov. George W. Bush in 2000, Sen. John Kerry narrowly won the state over Bush in 2004.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Jeanne Shaheen, former governor and nominee for the United States Senate in 2002.
Raymond Stebbins, attorney

Campaign

Astronaut Jay Buckey MD, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, and Katrina Swett, (wife of former Congressman Richard Swett), had announced their candidacies but withdrew in favor of former governor Jeanne Shaheen upon her entrance into the race.^[3]

Shaheen had been the Democratic nominee for the race in 2002. Since 2005, Shaheen had served as director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School before leaving on September 14, 2007. She had been aggressively courted to run by Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) on behalf of Senate Democrats, and by a "Draft Shaheen" campaign led by former New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Kathy Sullivan.

The filing deadline for the Democratic and Republican Parties was June 13, 2008. Shaheen filed, as did Raymond Stebbins.^[4]

Results

Democratic primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jeanne Shaheen	43,968	88.5%
	Democratic	Raymond Stebbins	5,281	10.6%
	Write-in		407	0.8%
Total votes			49,656	100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Tom Alciere, former state representative^[5]
John E. Sununu, incumbent U.S. Senator

Results

Republican primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	John Sununu (incumbent)	60,852	88.7%
	Republican	Tom Alciere	7,084	10.3%
	Write-in		685	1.0%
Total votes			68,621	100.0%

General election

Candidates

Ken Blevens (L)
Jeanne Shaheen (D), former governor
John E. Sununu (R), incumbent U.S. Senator

Campaign

A November 2006 SurveyUSA poll of New Hampshire voters found Sununu had a 47% approval rating.^[6] A February 1, 2007 poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire found that only 45% of New Hampshire voters held a favorable opinion of Sununu. In June 2007, a poll by 7NEWS and Suffolk University of likely voters reported that only 31 percent in the poll said Sununu deserved re-election, with 47 percent saying that someone else should get his seat.^[7]

A July 2008 Granite State Poll had Sununu's favorability rating at 52%, his unfavorability rating at 33%, and neutral or undecided by 16%.^[8] Shaheen is viewed favorable by 53%, unfavorable by 31% and neutral or undecided by 15%.^[9]

Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee for president, had mentioned Sununu as a possible running mate for the 2008 presidential election, as well as Lindsey Graham, Bob Riley, Steve Forbes and John Thune. Sununu had said he would remain neutral in the New Hampshire primary. However, McCain selected Alaska governor Sarah Palin instead.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[10]	Tossup	October 23, 2008
CQ Politics^[11]	Lean D (flip)	October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report^[12]	Likely D (flip)	November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics^[13]	Lean D (flip)	November 2, 2008

Polling

Source	Date	John Sununu (R)	Jeanne Shaheen (D)	Ken Blevens (L)	Undecided
American Research Group^[14]	March 29, 2007	34%	44%	––	22%
American Research Group^[15]	June 2007	29%	57%	––	14%
Research 2000^[16]	July 2007	34%	56%	––	10%
WMUR-CNN^[17]	July 2007	38%	54%	––	7%
Rasmussen Reports^[18]	September 16, 2007	43%	48%	––	9%
American Research Group^[19]	September 18, 2007	41%	46%	––	13%
WMUR-CNN^[20]	September 2007	38%	54%	––	7%
SurveyUSA^[21]	November 5, 2007	42%	53%	––	5%
American Research Group^[22]	December 20, 2007	52%	41%	––	7%
Granite State Poll^[23]	February 11, 2008	37%	54%	––	7%
Rasmussen Reports^[24]	February 13, 2008	41%	49%	––	––
American Research Group^[25]	March 20, 2008	33%	47%	––	20%
Rasmussen Reports^[26]	March 21, 2008	41%	49%	––	––
Rasmussen Reports^[27]	May 23, 2008	43%	50%	––	––
American Research Group^[28]	June 18, 2008	40%	54%	––	6%
Rasmussen Reports^[29]	June 20, 2008	39%	53%	––	––
Granite State Poll^[30]	July 20, 2008	42%	46%	––	10%
American Research Group^[31]	July 19, 2008	36%	58%	––	––
Rasmussen Reports^[32]	July 23, 2008	45%	51%	––	––
Rasmussen Reports^[33]	August 19, 2008	43%	52%	––	––
American Research Group^[34]	August 18, 2008	41%	52%	––	7%
Public Opinion Strategies^[35]	September 3, 2008	44%	46%	3%	5%
American Research Group^[36]	September 13, 2008	40%	52%	––	8%
Granite State Poll^[37]	September 14, 2008	44%	48%	––	7%
Rasmussen Reports^[38]	September 23, 2008	52%	45%	1%	2%
Rasmussen Reports^[39]	October 1, 2008	45%	50%	1%	3%
Rasmussen Reports^[40]	October 23, 2008	46%	52%	––	––
Rasmussen Reports^[41]	October 30, 2008	44%	52%	––	––
Survey USA^[42]	October 30, 2008	40%	53%	6%	2%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Jeanne Shaheen (D)	$8,273,501.00	$8,225,580.00	$47,920.00	$120,630.00
John Sununu (R)	$8,879,307.00	$8,868,017.00	$104,187.00	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission^[43]

Results

2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Jeanne Shaheen	358,438	51.62%	+4.95%
	Republican	John Sununu (incumbent)	314,403	45.28%	−5.83%
	Libertarian	Ken Blevens	21,516	3.10%	+0.89%
Total votes			694,357	100.0%	N/A
	Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Hillsborough (largest municipality: Manchester)
Sullivan (largest municipality: Claremont)

References

^ Storm of change sweeps through N.H. Legislature
^ "Can Sununu Hold on in New Hampshire?". Real Clear Politics. July 30, 2007. Retrieved July 30, 2007.^{[dead link]}
^ Swett Drops Out Of NH Senate Race^{[permanent dead link]} WCSH 6 September 21, 2007. Retrieved September 22, 2007
^ Democratic Party Cumulative Filings Archived June 5, 2011, at the Wayback Machine New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.
^ Republican Party Cumulative Filings Archived June 5, 2011, at the Wayback Machine New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.
^ Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11151, conducted November 2006
^ Ralph Z. Hallow, "N.H. poll puts Gore over Clinton", Washington Times, June 27, 2007
^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 7, 2008. Retrieved July 31, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 7, 2008. Retrieved July 31, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
^ American Research Group
^ American Research Group
^ Research 2000
^ WMUR-CNN
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ American Research Group
^ WMUR-CNN
^ SurveyUSA ^{[permanent dead link]}
^ American Research Group
^ Granite State Poll
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ American Research Group
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ American Research Group
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Granite State Poll
^ American Research Group
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ American Research Group
^ Public Opinion Strategies
^ American Research Group
^ Granite State Poll
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Survey USA
^ "New Hampshire 2008 Senate race fundraising".

External links

Election Division from the New Hampshire Secretary of State
U.S. Congress candidates for New Hampshire Archived September 19, 2008, at the Wayback Machine at Project Vote Smart
New Hampshire, U.S. Senate CQ Politics
New Hampshire U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
New Hampshire U.S. Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets
Sununu (R-i) vs Shaheen (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
Official campaign websites
- John Sununu, Republican nominee
- Jay Buckey, withdrawn
- Jeanne Shaheen Archived July 30, 2015, at the Wayback Machine, Democratic nominee
anti-Sununu website from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
anti-Shaheen website from the National Republican Senatorial Committee

[1] Storm of change sweeps through N.H. Legislature

[2] "Can Sununu Hold on in New Hampshire?". Real Clear Politics. July 30, 2007. Retrieved July 30, 2007.^{[dead link]}

[3] Swett Drops Out Of NH Senate Race^{[permanent dead link]} WCSH 6 September 21, 2007. Retrieved September 22, 2007

[4] Democratic Party Cumulative Filings Archived June 5, 2011, at the Wayback Machine New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.

[5] Republican Party Cumulative Filings Archived June 5, 2011, at the Wayback Machine New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.

[6] Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11151, conducted November 2006

[7] Ralph Z. Hallow, "N.H. poll puts Gore over Clinton", Washington Times, June 27, 2007

[8] "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 7, 2008. Retrieved July 31, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

[9] "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 7, 2008. Retrieved July 31, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

[Cook_PR-10] "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.

[11] Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics

[Inside_Elections-12] "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.

[13] "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.

[14] American Research Group

[15] American Research Group

[16] Research 2000

[17] WMUR-CNN

[18] Rasmussen Reports

[19] American Research Group

[20] WMUR-CNN

[21] SurveyUSA ^{[permanent dead link]}

[22] American Research Group

[23] Granite State Poll

[24] Rasmussen Reports

[25] American Research Group

[26] Rasmussen Reports

[27] Rasmussen Reports

[28] American Research Group

[29] Rasmussen Reports

[30] Granite State Poll

[31] American Research Group

[32] Rasmussen Reports

[33] Rasmussen Reports

[34] American Research Group

[35] Public Opinion Strategies

[36] American Research Group

[37] Granite State Poll

[38] Rasmussen Reports

[39] Rasmussen Reports

[40] Rasmussen Reports

[41] Rasmussen Reports

[42] Survey USA

[43] "New Hampshire 2008 Senate race fundraising".

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Background

Democratic primary

Candidates

Campaign

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Predictions

Polling

Fundraising

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

External links