Talk:Lebanese diaspora

Reliability of sources

Just fell into a classic trap. I've just spent some time reformatting the table to include cites, as otherwise the numbers just look made up (turns out they largely were, as you'll see :) ). I found the Marionite Foundation (MF) had a page on the diaspora that seemed to be the source of most of the figures on WP; some here had been changed, usually upwards and with no reason (like USA's 2.3m changed to 3.3m by an unregistered user with no explanation), but the tables looked very similar. So I took the MF as the principal source and went on from there.

Given that, it was an unpleasant surprise to realise that actually the MF had sourced their page from an earlier version of this WP page! You can see from the evolution of this WP article that the MF one is copied, probably from something like the Nov 2008 version. The figures were first introduced to this WP article by Werldwayd back in Sept 2008, so WP predates MF, and the text on the MF refers to a table on the right when it's actually below (but was on the right in WP at the time).

Anyway, I'll rework the article to reflect numbers from reliable sources (i.e. government, media, academic/research, but not unsubstantiated statements from advocacy sites); expect the numbers to fall significantly. Any comments from Werldwayd (or anyone else) on the source for his figures in Sept 2008 would be appreciated, as would any information on the 15.4m figure that the government of Lebanon apparently released back in 1994 (or possibly 1996). It's mentioned in the Lebanese people article and cited, but the cite is to a brief (and incomplete) mention in a book on nursing care rather than anything with any detail. Anything with a government stamp, however possibly biased, would be the holy grail. Failing that, the best base to start from that I've found so far has been the Geographical Distribution of the Lebanese Diaspora map by iLoubnan (in French and English). Bromley86 (talk) 14:22, 28 May 2013 (UTC)[reply]

References

In general, I've separated out any iLoubnan reference over 30k and summed any below. Senegal & SAfr make the cut to be separately stated because they have relatively reliable cites (& SAfr isn't on the iLoubnan map anyway; including varied sources in the summed entities would lead to a mess down the line).

References for text area:

History summary[1]

References not used in table:

Total diaspora: 4m[2] - Good cite for the low-end estimate (i.e. an estimate of those that still view themselves in any meaningful way as Lebanese, rather than all descendants, whether they consider themselves Lebanese or not. Source is "cultural attaché at the Lebanese Embassy in France, and a specialist in Lebanese history", so not easy to ignore. Actually, looks like he's talking about a narrower definition of Lebanese. This LERC paper talks of 4-6m Lebanese migrants, so I suspect both references are referring to people who still maintain a distinct Lebanese identity. This calls into question the use of the NYT article to support 100k in France, as that's potentially not counting descendants on a consistent basis with, say, the 7m figure for Brazil.
Total diaspora: 14m[3] - not used as FCO (also 14m) more reliable.
Total diaspora: 15m-20m[4] - Not used as also states US Lebanese population as 3m, which is likely a significant overestimation by advocacy groups.
West Africa: 80k-250k[5] (Senegal, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria)
Liberia: 4k[6] - too small a population for me to strip it out of the Rest of Sub-Saharan Africa figure (which is entirely iLoubnan for ease of confirmation and where Liberia is estimated at 10,800).
Brazil: 7m[7]
USA: 1.5m[8] - In section The First Lebanese in America, 66% of 2.5m Americans of Arab descent are of Greater Syrian origin, majority Christian, therefore assumed majority from Lebanon area of Greater Syria. 66% of 2.5 = 1.65m, therefore assume 1.5m Lebanese. Good article, but superseded by American Community Survey data which indicates 500k (or 950k if we take the AAI adjusted population).[9]
Ivory Coast 100k, Senegal 20k, Sierra Leone 6k.[10] Normally I'd expect that to be a from a partial source, but it actually seems fair given the data points (e.g. it doesn't try to inflate the SL population). It is nearly 10 years old, so anything could have happened. The IC figure is sufficiently close to the existing 90k in the table to leave it at that (and the 2nd IC civil war has taken place, which might be expected to lower the Lebanese population). The Senegal figure falls between the two currently cited, so it adds little. The SL figure is lower than the 10k+ one currently used, but it seems reasonable to expect that some of the expats that fled the war might have returned since 2004.
Guadalupe: 5k.[11] Currently using 3,200 as part of the Caribbean entry; both the difference and total are immaterial.
Gulf (as a whole, pre-crash): 350k[12] - source, Finance Minister. One thing to note; there appears to be fewer problems with classification of immigrants to the Gulf regions (versus, say, the US) as the vast majority appears to have occurred post-oil. That means the country of Lebanon existed, which wasn't the case with the earlier migrations to Western/Latin countries. I suspect, but haven't confirmed, that Gulf states tend to be more frugal with citizenship, which further keeps Lebanese populations in them easier to discern. Paper talking about post-2008 Gulf trends,[13] which mentions 106k for Kuwait, 2k for Oman, 36k for Dubai (possibly more due to dual nationality people perhaps being counted under their other nat).

Bromley86 (talk) 11:59, 6 June 2013 (UTC)[reply]

Religion

Canadian religion split: Two thirds Christian (63%:30%, 6% neither)[14]
US religion split: "76% of Arabs in America are Christians",[15] but note that's "Arabs", not "Lebanese". The paper goes on to say that the proportion of Christians in the Lebanese community is higher than that in the rest of the Arab pop; it doesn't make a call, but 90% would not seem unreasonable.
Australia.[16] Calls into question this statement from an earlier version of the WP article: "should the diaspora return to the Lebanon, it would be the only majority Christian country in the middle east."

Specifically, "The first two waves [1880-1920s & 1945-1975] were predominantly Christian, while the third wave [Civil War to present, 1976-2000] was predominantly Muslim." So, whilst the majority of the Lebanese diaspora in Australia may be Christian, the majority of the recent arrivals are Muslim. This is important because not all Lebanese are equal; the only ones with a realistic chance of being allowed to vote in elections are the relatively recent arrivals (i.e. those that still maintain Lebanese passports, rather than descendants of the first wave). Hence the talk of 1.2 million possible expat voters, rather than 4 million or 14 million. So, although the proportion of the total Lebanese diaspora (~250k) in Australia will still be significantly Christian, the article gives the proportions of Lebanese-born (~70k) as: Muslims (38.6%), Christians (51%).

Bromley86 (talk) 12:08, 6 June 2013 (UTC)[reply]

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Paragraph moved from Notes section on main article

This text belongs on the talk page, not on the article page itself:

"This article lacks valid resources and information. It is biased toward one group and ignores the contribution of a lot of Lebanese descendants like Hasan Kamel Sabah. This no not a good article for reference. The list of notable people does include non-immigrants."

Some of these issues may have been addressed above. HeritageNL (talk) 00:15, 12 September 2021 (UTC)[reply]