Pre-election pendulum for the 2022 Australian federal election
 2022 Australian federal election |
|---|
| National results |
| State and territory results |
The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.
The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.
Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[1]
This Mackerras pendulum includes new notional margin estimates in Victoria and Western Australia due to boundary redistributions.[2][3] Members in italics have declared they will not contest their seats at the election, or have lost their party's preselection.
References
[edit]- ^ "Divisional classifications". Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. 11 July 2019. Retrieved 3 November 2022.
- ^ Green, Antony (2 August 2021). "2022 Federal Electoral Pendulum". Antony Green's Election. Archived from the original on 3 August 2021. Retrieved 3 August 2021.
- ^ "Pendulum". Australian Broadcasting Corporation News. Retrieved 7 May 2022.