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Draft:Fall of the Assad regime

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Beginning on 8 December 2024, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian Arab Republic began to dissolve due to Syrian opposition forces, following their entrance into the capital city of Damascus, ending the rule of the Assad dynasty that began with the presidency of Hafez al-Assad in 1971.

Background

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See also: Al-Assad family, Bashar al-Assad, and Neo-Ba'athism

The al-Assad family,[a] also known as the Assad dynasty,[1] is a Syrian political family that has ruled Syria since Hafez al-Assad became the president of Syria in 1971 under the Ba'ath Party. After his death in June 2000, he was succeeded by his son Bashar al-Assad.[2][3][4][5]

Hafez Al-Assad built his regime as a bureaucracy that was marked by a distinct cult of personality, uncharacteristic in modern Syrian history. Images, portraits, quotes and praises of Assad are displayed everywhere from schools to public markets and government offices; and Hafez al-Assad is referred as the "Immortal Leader" and the "al-Muqaddas (Sanctified One)" in official Assadist ideology. Hafez re-organised the Syrian society in militaristic lines and persistently invoked conspiratorial rhetoric on the dangers of foreign-backed plots abetted by fifth columnists and promoted the armed forces as a central aspect of public life.[6][7][8]

Since Hafiz al-Assad's seizure of power in 1970; state propaganda has promoted a new national discourse based on unifying Syrians under "a single imagined Ba'athist identity" and Assadism.[9] Fervently loyalist paramilitaries known as the Shabiha (tr. ghosts) deify the Assad dynasty through slogans such as "There is no God but Bashar!" and pursue psychological warfare against non-conformist populations.[10]

Bashar al-Assad

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Following the death of Hafez, the personality cult was inherited by his son and successor Bashar al-Assad who is hailed by the party as the "Young Leader" and "Hope of the People". Highly influenced by the model of the North Korean Kim dynasty, official propaganda ascribes divine features to the Assad dynasty; and reveres the Assad patriarchs as the founding fathers of modern Syria.[6][7][8]

In 2011, the United States, European Union, and majority of the Arab League called for Assad to resign following the crackdown on Arab Spring protesters during the events of the Syrian revolution, which led to the Syrian civil war. The civil war has killed around 580,000 people, of which a minimum of 306,000 deaths are non-combatant; according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights, pro-Assad forces caused more than 90% of those civilian deaths.[11] The Assad government has perpetrated numerous war crimes during the course of the Syrian civil war,[b] and Assad's army, the Syrian Arab Armed Forces, has also carried out several attacks with chemical weapons.[17] The deadliest chemical attack was a sarin gas strike in Ghouta on 21 August 2013, which killed between 281 and 1,729 people.

In December 2013, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay stated that findings from an inquiry by the UN implicated Assad in war crimes. Investigations by the OPCW-UN Joint Investigative Mechanism and OPCW-UN IIT concluded, respectively, that the Assad government was responsible for the 2017 Khan Shaykhun sarin attack and 2018 Douma chemical attack. On 15 November 2023, France issued an arrest warrant against Assad over the use of banned chemical weapons against civilians in Syria.[18] Assad has categorically denied the allegations of these charges and has accused foreign countries, especially the United States, of attempting regime change.[19]

Advance towards Damascus

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On 7 December 2024, opposition forces secured complete control of Homs following approximately twenty-four hours of concentrated military engagement. The rapid collapse of government defenses resulted in the hasty withdrawal of security forces, who destroyed sensitive documentation during their retreat. The capture granted insurgent forces control over critical transportation infrastructure, particularly the highway junction connecting Damascus to the Alawite coastal region, where both Assad's support base and Russian military installations were situated.[20]

Allied Hezbollah forces withdrew from nearby al-Qusayr, evacuating approximately 150 armored vehicles and hundreds of fighters. The reduction in support from key allies, including Russia's diminished involvement due to its focus on Ukraine, and Hezbollah's concurrent engagement in conflict with Israel, were believed to contribute to the regime's weakened position.[20]

The takeover of Homs by opposition forces prompted widespread public celebrations, with residents participating in street demonstrations. Celebrants changes anti-Assad slogans such as “Assad is gone, Homs is free” and “Long live Syria, down with Bashar al-Assad”, removed regime symbols which included portraits of President Assad, while opposition fighters conducted victory celebrations including celebratory gunfire.[20]

Damascus

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Main article: Battle of Damascus (2024)

On 7 December, Syrian rebels announced that they started surrounding Damascus after capturing nearby towns, with rebel commander Hassan Abdel Ghani stating that "our forces have begun implementing the final phase of encircling the capital Damascus."[21] The rebels started encircling the capital after capturing Al-Sanamayn, a town 20 kilometres (12 mi) from the southern entrance of Damascus.[22] By the evening, pro-government forces had left the towns on the outskirts of Damascus, including Jaramana, Qatana, Muadamiyat al-Sham, Darayya, Al-Kiswah, Al-Dumayr, Daraa and sites near the Mezzeh Air Base.[23]

The Syrian Army attempted to maintain public order through state media broadcasts, urging citizens to disregard what they termed "false news" aimed at destabilizing national security. Military leadership assured the population of their continued commitment to defending the country, though their ability to do so appeared increasingly limited.[24]

Opposition reconnaissance units penetrated the capital's defenses, establishing positions in strategic locations throughout the city. Special operations teams conducted searches for President Assad within Damascus, though their efforts to locate him proved unsuccessful.[24]

Fall and departure

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In the main square of Jaramana, protestors took down a statue of Hafez al-Assad, In the evening, pro-government forces reportedly withdrew from several suburbs where large-scale protests broke out.[24]

Senior Assad regime officials in Damascus reportedly engaged in negotiations with opposition forces regarding potential defections. These developments coincided with Iranian officials' denial of reports suggesting Assad had fled the country, though sources indicated his whereabouts in Damascus remained unknown. Following the entrance of opposition forces, Assad's presidential guard was no longer deployed at his usual residence. As of 7 December 2024 early evening, rebel forces found no solid intelligence on al-Assad's location and attempted to find him.[24]

On 8 December, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham announced on its official Twitter/X account that it had released its inmate population from Sednaya Prison, one of Syria's largest detention facilities, located in Damascus's periphery. The organization deemed the release as a symbolic and strategic victory for its forces in the face of prior human rights abuses, and representative of the downfall of the Assad regime's injustices.[25]

The opposition's entry into Damascus occurred with minimal resistance due to a lack of military dispatches to areas of the city and the rapid dissolution of government defensive positions, leading to the capture of several districts. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed that opposition forces successfully seized several critical facilities in Damascus, including the state-media General Organization of Radio and TV building and Damascus International Airport. Their advances also secured control of major transportation arteries and strategic neighborhoods, particularly the influential Mezzeh district.[26][27]

In the early hours of 8 December, President Assad reportedly departed Damascus for an undisclosed location amid rapidly deteriorating security conditions in the capital, according to two senior Syrian army officials. At the same time, Syrian residents reported hearing shouts of "God is great" and heavy gunfire across Damascus.[25]

Reactions

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The rapid advancement of opposition forces drew significant international attention. The Biden administration's officials began considering the possibility of Assad's regime collapsing within days. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed hope for peace and stability in Syria after thirteen years of conflict. Israel's military maintained close surveillance of the situation, particularly regarding Iranian movements, while also supporting United Nations forces in repelling attacks by armed groups.[28]

References

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  1. ^ * Ma'oz, Moshe (2022). "15: The Assad dynasty". In Larres, Klaus (ed.). Dictators and Autocrats: Securing Power across Global Politics. New York: Routledge. pp. 249–263. doi:10.4324/9781003100508. ISBN 978-0-367-60786-9.
  2. ^ Eyal Zisser (2004). "Bashar al-Asad and his Regime – Between Continuity and Change". Orient. Archived from the original on 1 August 2017. Retrieved 2 April 2011.
  3. ^ Kmak, Magdalena; Björklund, Heta (2022). Refugees and Knowledge Production: Europe's Past and Present. Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge. p. 73. doi:10.4324/9781003092421. ISBN 978-0-367-55206-0. S2CID 246668129.
  4. ^ Turku, Helga (2018). "3: Long-Term Security Repercussions of Attacking Cultural Property". The Destruction of Cultural Property as a Weapon of War. palgrave macmillan. p. 74. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-57282-6. ISBN 978-3-319-57282-6.
  5. ^ Darke, Diana (2010). Syria (2nd ed.). Bradt Travel Guides. p. 311. ISBN 978-1-84162-314-6.
  6. ^ a b Halasa, Malu; Omareen, Zaher; Mahfoud, Nawara (2014). Syria Speaks: Art and Culture from the Frontline. London: Saqi Books. pp. 125, 147–156, 161. ISBN 978-0-86356-787-2.
  7. ^ a b Pipes, Daniel (1995). Syria Beyond the Peace Process. Washington, D.C.: Washington Institute for Near East Policy. pp. 6, 7, 13–17. ISBN 0-944029-64-7.
  8. ^ a b Shamaileh, Ammar (2017). Trust and Terror: Social Capital and the Use of Terrorism as a Tool of Resistance. New York: Routledge. pp. 66, 70–72, 82. ISBN 978-1-138-20173-6.
  9. ^ Carlos BC, Juan (9 December 2021). "The Assad Family Has Been Shaping Syria for 50 Years". Fair Observer. Archived from the original on 9 December 2021.
  10. ^ Phillips, Christopher (2015). The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East. London: Yale University Press. p. 131. ISBN 9780300217179.
  11. ^ "Civilian Death Toll". SNHR. September 2022. Archived from the original on 5 March 2022.
  12. ^ Robertson QC, Geoffrey (2013). "11: Justice in Demand". Crimes Against Humanity: The Struggle for Global Justice (4th ed.). New York: The New Press. pp. 560–562, 573, 595–607. ISBN 978-1-59558-860-9.
  13. ^ Syria Freedom Support Act; Holocaust Insurance Accountability Act of 2011. Washington DC: Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives. 2012. pp. 221–229.
  14. ^ Vohra, Anchal (16 October 2020). "Assad's Horrible War Crimes Are Finally Coming to Light Under Oath". Foreign Policy. Archived from the original on 2 November 2020.
  15. ^ "German court finds Assad regime official guilty of crimes against humanity". Daily Sabah. 13 January 2022. Archived from the original on 22 January 2022.
  16. ^ Martina Nosakhare, Whitney (15 March 2022). "Some Hope in the Struggle for Justice in Syria: European Courts Offer Survivors a Path Toward Accountability". Human Rights Watch. Archived from the original on 5 April 2022.
  17. ^ * "Security Council Deems Syria's Chemical Weapon's Declaration Incomplete". United Nations: Meetings Coverage and Press Releases. 6 March 2023. Archived from the original on 14 March 2023.
  18. ^ "France issues arrest warrant for Syria's President Assad - source". Reuters. 15 November 2023.
  19. ^ King, Esther (2 November 2016). "Assad denies responsibility for Syrian war". Politico. Archived from the original on 28 December 2016. Retrieved 21 December 2016. The Syrian president maintained he was fighting to preserve his country and criticized the West for intervening. "Good government or bad, it's not your mission" to change it, he said.
  20. ^ a b c "Homs falls: Rebels tighten grip as Assad regime teeters". The Express Tribune. 2024-12-08. Retrieved 2024-12-08.
  21. ^ Abdulrahim, Raja (7 December 2024). "Syria's Government Battles Multiple Rebel Uprisings". The New York Times. Retrieved 7 December 2024.
  22. ^ "Syrian rebels say they control the south and are approaching Damascus". Middle East Eye. Retrieved 2024-12-07.
  23. ^ "After the major withdrawal in the Damascus countryside and cities adjacent to the capital.. Regime forces redeploy in the capital Damascus" (in Arabic). SOHR. 7 December 2024. Retrieved 7 December 2024.
  24. ^ a b c d Robertson, Nic (2024-12-07). "Syrian rebels edge closer to Damascus as US officials say Assad regime could fall soon: Live updates". CNN. Retrieved 2024-12-07.
  25. ^ a b الوسط, بوابة. "«رويترز»: بشار الأسد غادر دمشق إلى وجهة غير معلومة". alwasat.ly (in Arabic). Retrieved 2024-12-08.
  26. ^ "عاجل: هروب بشار الأسد وسقوط دمشق". Elaph - إيلاف (in Arabic). 2024-12-08. Retrieved 2024-12-08.
  27. ^ "الأحداث تتسارع.. المعارضة تدخل دمشق والأسد يغادر لوجهة غير معلومة". الجزيرة نت (in Arabic). Retrieved 2024-12-08.
  28. ^ Robertson, Nic (2024-12-07). "Syrian rebels edge closer to Damascus as US officials say Assad regime could fall soon: Live updates". CNN. Retrieved 2024-12-07.
  1. ^ Arabic: عَائِلَة الْأَسَد, romanized: ʿāʾilat al-ʾAsad
  2. ^ Sources:[12][13][14][15][16]
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