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Climate change in Belgium

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The July 2019 European heat wave affected Belgium heavily, with temperatures over 40°C.
North Sea: Sea Level Risks

Belgium has the 7th largest CO2 emission per capita in the EU.[1] The CO2 emissions have dropped 19.0% since in comparison with 1990 levels.[2] The average temperature has risen 1.9 degrees Celsius since measurements began in 1890, with an acceleration since 1954.[3]

Climate change in Belgium has caused temperatures rises and more frequent and intense heatwaves, increases in winter rainfall and decreases in snowfall.[4] By 2100, sea levels along the Belgian coast are projected to rise by 60 to 90 cm with a maximum potential increase of up to 200 cm in the worst-case scenario.[5] The costs of climate change are estimated to amount to €9.5 billion a year in 2050 (2% of Belgian GDP), mainly due to extreme heat, drought and flooding, while economics gains due to milder winters amount to approximately €3 billion a year (0.65% of GDP).[5] The country has committed to net zero by 2050.[6]

Greenhouse gas emissions

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Belgium greenhouse emission of gas from 1990 to 2016

In 2023, Belgium emitted 106.82 million tonnes of greenhouse gases (around 0.2% of the global total emissions), equivalent to 9.12 tonnes per person.[7][8]

In 2021, the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were 146.9 million tons of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2 eq), whose 88 Mt came from the Flemish Region, 54.8 Mt from the Walloon Region and 4 Mt from the Brussels-capital Region.[9]

Mitigation and adaptation

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Köppen climate classification map for Belgium for 1980–2016
2071–2100 map under the most intense climate change scenario. Mid-range scenarios are currently considered more likely[10][11][12]

Policies and legislation

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Being a member of the European Union, Belgium, applied the European Union Emission Trading Scheme set up by the Directive 2003/87/EC. The Kyoto protocol sets a 7.5% reduction of greenhouse gas emission target compared to 1990. Belgium set up a National Allocation Plan at the federal level with target for each of the three regions.

On 14 November 2002, Belgium signed the Cooperation Agreement for the implementation of a National Climate Plan and reporting in the context of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto protocol. The first National Allocation Plan was for the period from 2005 to 2007. The European Commission approved it on 20 October 2004. The second allocation plan was for the period 2008-2012 and aims a reduction of 7.5% of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990.

Paris Agreement

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See also: Climate change in Europe § Paris Agreement

The Paris agreement is a legally binding international agreement, its main goal is to limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.[13] The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) are the plans to fight climate change adapted for each country.[14] Every party in the agreement has different targets based on its own historical climate records and country's circumstances and all the targets for each country are stated in their NDC.[15]

In the case of member countries of the European Union the goals are very similar and the European Union work with a common strategy within the Paris Agreement.[16]

Targets by region

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Flemish Region

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The target of the Flemish Region is a reduction of 5.2% of GHG in the period 2008-2012 compared to 1990. That means average emissions of 83.4 million tons CO2 equivalent in the 2008-2012 period. The 2008–2012, Flemish allocation plan deals with installation consuming more than 0.5 PJ (139 GWh) annually.[9] 17% of GHG emissions comes from transportation and 21 from electricity production and heat production (excluded heat for buildings).[9] There are 178 installations listed.

The largest emitters are, with their emissions in tons of CO2 equivalent (t CO2 eq) per year:[9]

Brussels-Capital Region

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Being a federal state, Brussels-Capital Region also made a second allocation plan for 2008–2012 based on the decree of June 3, 2004 that implements the European directive 2003/87/CE. In that plan, Brussels objective is to have an increase of maximum 3.475% of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990.

In 2004, the Brussels-Capital Region emitted 4.4 million tons CO2 equivalent, an increase of 9% compared to 1990 when emissions were 4.083 Mt CO2 eq. The emissions come from domestic use (45%), tertiary sector (25%) and transportation (19%), and energy/industry (2%).[9] The 4.4 Mt CO2 eq do not take into account GHG emission due to electricity production outside the region.

The 2008–2012 allocation plans include only eight facilities:

Walloon Region

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In the second allocation plan (for the period 2008–2012), the Walloon Region is planning a reduction of 7.5% of GHG emissions compared to 1990 when 54.84 million tons CO2 equivalent was emitted. [9]

The plan for 2008-2012 includes 172 premises. In 2005, the largest emitters were (number in tons CO2 equivalent per year):[9]

Other large emitters are cast iron and steel producers in Charleroi and Liège.

On October 22, 2009, BASF announced that they will close the plant located at Feluy at the end of 2009.[17] That plant had a yearly allocation of 36,688 tons of CO2 equivalent.

Litigation

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This section is an excerpt from Climate change litigation § Belgium.[edit]
In June 2021, after a six year long legal battle, the Court of First Instance ruled that the climate targets of the government of Belgium are too low and therefore "breached the right to life (article 2) and the right to respect for private and family life (article 8)" of the European Convention on Human Rights.[18]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Per capita CO2 emissions". Our World in Data. Retrieved 2021-08-09.
  2. ^ "Evolutie". Klimaat | Climat (in Dutch). Retrieved 2021-08-09.
  3. ^ "Waargenomen veranderingen". Klimaat | Climat (in Dutch). Retrieved 2021-08-09.
  4. ^ IEA (2023-05-15). "Belgium Climate Resilience Policy Indicator". IEA. Retrieved 2024-12-11.
  5. ^ a b Climate Risk Assessment Center. "Main risks for Belgium". CERAC. Retrieved 11 December 2024.
  6. ^ Climate Watch. "Belgium". www.climatewatchdata.org. Retrieved 2024-12-20.
  7. ^ Jones, Matthew W.; Peters, Glen P.; Gasser, Thomas; Andrew, Robbie M.; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Gütschow, Johannes; Houghton, Richard A.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Pongratz, Julia; Le Quéré, Corinne (2023-03-29). "National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850". Scientific Data. 10 (1): 155. Bibcode:2023NatSD..10..155J. doi:10.1038/s41597-023-02041-1. ISSN 2052-4463. PMC 10060593. PMID 36991071.
  8. ^ Ritchie, Hannah; Rosado, Pablo; Roser, Max (2024-01-05). "Greenhouse gas emissions". Our World in Data. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  9. ^ a b c d e f g Federal Public Service of Public Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment (September 2006). Draft of Belgian National Allocation Plan for CO2-emission allowances 2008-2012 (PDF). Brussels. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2010-07-27.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link)
  10. ^ Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020). "Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading". Nature. 577 (7792): 618–20. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3. PMID 31996825.
  11. ^ Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. Bibcode:2022ARER...47..343S. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
  12. ^ Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
  13. ^ United Nations, United Nations Climate Change. "The Paris Agreement". unfccc.int. Retrieved 2021-05-10.
  14. ^ "NDC spotlight". UNFCCC. Retrieved 12 May 2021.
  15. ^ "Nationally Determined Contributions". unfccc. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  16. ^ "Update of the NDC of the European Union and its Member States" (PDF). UNFCCC. 2020-12-17. Retrieved 12 May 2021.
  17. ^ "BASF annonce la fermeture de son usine de Feluy". www.7sur7.be. Archived from the original on 2011-09-29.
  18. ^ Germanos, Andrea (19 June 2021). "Belgium Court Deems Inadequate Climate Policy a Human Rights Violation". Ecowatch. Archived from the original on 28 June 2021. Retrieved 28 June 2021.
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