2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Kentucky. Incumbent seven-term Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who was re-elected with 57.8% of the vote in 2020, declined to run for reelection.
Senator Mitch McConnell, first elected in 1984, has announced he will not seek re-election.[1] This decision follows his earlier announcement stepping down as Senate Republican Leader after the 2024 Senate elections.
This will be the first open Senate election in Kentucky since 2010, and the first to this seat since 1972.
Background
[edit]Kentucky, a Southern state in the Bible Belt, is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1992. Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all but two statewide offices, supermajorities in both houses of the Kentucky General Assembly, and all but one seat in Kentucky's U.S. House congressional delegation.[2] However, Democrats control the governorship and lieutenant-governorship which flipped from Republican control in 2019.[3]
McConnell was first elected in 1984 and was re-elected in six subsequent elections.[4]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Daniel Cameron, former Kentucky Attorney General (2019–2024) and nominee for governor in 2023[5]
Publicly expressed interest
[edit]- Andy Barr, U.S. representative from Kentucky’s 6th congressional district (2013–present)[6]
- Nate Morris, business conglomerate owner[7]
Potential
[edit]- Kelly Craft, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2019–2021) and candidate for governor in 2023[5]
- Ryan Quarles, president of the Kentucky Community and Technical College System (2024–present), former agriculture commissioner of Kentucky (2016–2024), and candidate for governor in 2023[6]
- Robert Stivers, president of the Kentucky Senate (2013–present) from the 25th district (1997–present)[8]
- Damon Thayer, former state senator from the 17th district (2003–2025)[9]
Declined
[edit]- James Comer, U.S. Representative for Kentucky's 1st congressional district (2016–present) (running for re-election)[10]
- Thomas Massie, U.S. Representative for Kentucky's 4th congressional district (2012–present)[11]
- Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. Senator (1985–present)[12]
- David Osborne, speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives (2018–present) from the 59th district (2005–present)[8]
Polling
[edit]Hypothetical polling
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Pamela Stevenson, minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 43rd district (2021–present) and nominee for Attorney General in 2023[13]
Declined
[edit]- Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)[14][6]
- Jacqueline Coleman, Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)[15]
- Morgan McGarvey, U.S. representative from Kentucky's 3rd congressional district (2023–present)[16]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[17] | Solid R | January 17, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report[18] | Solid R | February 11, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe R | February 13, 2025 |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
[edit]- ^ "Sen. Mitch McConnell won't seek reelection in 2026, ending long tenure as Republican power broker". AP News. February 20, 2025. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
- ^ "Kentucky House and Senate Republicans maintain supermajority". kaco.org. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
- ^ Golshan, Tara (November 6, 2019). "Democrat Andy Beshear just unseated Kentucky's Trump-loving governor". Vox. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
- ^ "Sen. Mitch McConnell wins another term in Kentucky, NBC News projects". NBC News. November 4, 2020. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
- ^ a b c Horn, Austin (February 20, 2025). "Daniel Cameron launches 2026 U.S. Senate bid on heels of Mitch McConnell announcement". Lexington Herald-Leader. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
- ^ a b c Kamisar, Ben (February 20, 2025). "Potential Mitch McConnell successors begin lining up for Kentucky's Senate race". NBC News. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
- ^ Fields, Ashleigh (February 12, 2025). "Businessman says he won't wait for McConnell retirement if he decides to run for Senate seat". The Hill.
- ^ a b Horn, Austin; Catanese, David (February 12, 2025). "Andy Barr for Senate? KY Congressman indicates he's ready to run upon McConnell retirement". Lexington Herald-Leader. Retrieved February 12, 2025.
- ^ Pinski, Hannah (February 11, 2025). "With Barr reportedly in the running, here's who else could seek McConnell's seat". Courier Journal. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
- ^ Catanese, David (March 21, 2024). "Who would be the front-runner for McConnell's Senate seat in 2026?". McClatchy. Retrieved March 21, 2024.
A spokesperson for Comer...relayed that Comer has no interest in running for senate even if McConnell does not seek reelection.
- ^ Bullis, Hailey (May 24, 2024). "Thomas Massie denies plans to run for McConnell's Senate seat in 2026". Washington Examiner. Retrieved October 18, 2024.
- ^ Schreiner, Bruce (February 20, 2025). "Sen. Mitch McConnell won't seek reelection in 2026, ending long tenure as Republican power broker". Associated Press. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
- ^ Anderson, Mario (February 10, 2025). "In Focus: House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson talks 2025 legislative priorities in Kentucky General Assembly". Spectrum News. Retrieved February 12, 2025.
Stevenson also confirmed during this interview that she is running in the Democratic primary for Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell's seat in 2026.
- ^ Karyn, Czar (March 1, 2024). "Beshear rules out possible Senate run in 2026". WUKY.
- ^ Barrett, Alexis (February 20, 2025). "Daniel Cameron, Pam Stevenson announce 2026 Senate bids". Marshall County Tribune-Courier. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
- ^ Kight, Stef W.; Solender, Andrew (February 20, 2025). "Mitch McConnell's retirement sparks a political explosion in Kentucky". Axios. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
- ^ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites