2025 Liberal Party of Canada leadership election
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Date | March 9, 2025 |
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Convention | TBD |
Resigning leader | Justin Trudeau |
Won by | TBD |
Candidates | 5 |
Entrance Fee | $350,000[2] |
Spending limit | $5,000,000[3] |
The Liberal Party of Canada is holding a leadership election to elect a successor to Justin Trudeau following his announcement on January 6, 2025, of his intention to resign as party leader and as prime minister of Canada as soon as his successor is elected.[4][5][6][7] The party will choose its new leader on March 9, who is expected to assume office as the 24th prime minister of Canada, appoint the 30th Canadian ministry, and lead the party into the 2025 federal election.
Background
[edit]Justin Trudeau was elected as the leader of the Liberal Party in 2013. He led the party to victory in the 2015 federal election, with a majority government, and was re-elected in 2019 and 2021 with minority governments. On March 22, 2022, the Liberals reached a confidence and supply agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP), who agreed to support the Liberal government until June 2025 in exchange for specific policy commitments.[8]
Throughout 2024, public support for the Liberal Party declined. On June 24, the Liberals lost the Toronto—St. Paul's by-election. The seat was vacated by former minister Carolyn Bennett and represented by the Liberals since 1993, was considered a safe seat for the Liberals. The by-election was considered by some as a "referendum" on Trudeau's premiership.[9][10] The loss marked the first time Liberals lost a seat that they had held prior to a by-election during the 44th Parliament.[11] In the aftermath of the by-election loss, Wayne Long publicly called on Trudeau to resign, the first Liberal MP to do so.[12] The Liberals lost a second by-election on September 16, LaSalle—Émard—Verdun by-election, which had been vacated by former minister David Lametti and was considered to be a "safe" Liberal seat. Senior Liberal figures considered the by-election a "must-win."[13] On December 16, the Liberals lost the 2024 Cloverdale—Langley City federal by-election, a seat vacated by former Liberal MP John Aldag.[14]
On September 4, the NDP withdrew from their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals, though they did not commit to a motion of non-confidence.[15]
In October, Trudeau faced a caucus revolt when 24 Liberal MPs signed a letter demanding his resignation. However, Trudeau was defiant and unequivocal in his plans to lead the party in the next election. The dissident MPs continued to push for a caucus vote on Trudeau's leadership, though there is no formal mechanism in the party to force one.[16]
Resignation of Chrystia Freeland
[edit]Hours before the government's fall economic statement, Chrystia Freeland, the minister of finance and deputy prime minister, resigned due to her opposition to Trudeau's fiscal policy.[17] The move was unexpected, particularly since Freeland was seen as being very loyal,[18][19] and led to further calls for Trudeau to step down.[20]
Four days later, on December 20, Trudeau conducted a major cabinet reshuffle. Nevertheless, pressure on Trudeau continued to build. Over 20 Liberal MPs publicly called for Trudeau to resign and over 50 sign a private letter asking him to resign. The same day, the NDP publicly committed to introducing a non-confidence motion against the government.[21] The Ontario, Atlantic and Quebec regional caucuses called on Trudeau to resign on December 21,[22] 23[23] and 31, respectively.[24] On January 3, 2025, the Liberal caucus regional chairs met and called an emergency national Liberal caucus meeting, set for January 8, 2025.[25][26]
On January 6, 2025, Trudeau announced his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister shortly after his successor is chosen.[27][28]
Campaign
[edit]Following Trudeau's announcement, political commentators suggested that several figures were likely candidates: Anita Anand, Mark Carney, François-Philippe Champagne, Christy Clark, Chrystia Freeland, Mélanie Joly and Dominic LeBlanc.[29][30][31][32] Other possible candidates named were Sean Fraser,[33][32] Karina Gould[29] and Jonathan Wilkinson.[29][30][32] Freeland, a leading member of Trudeau's government, had been seen as a "possible heir apparent" as far back as 2021.[34] After her resignation from cabinet, some MPs voiced their support for her to replace Trudeau.[35] LeBlanc, another key member of Trudeau's cabinet and a leadership candidate in 2009, had reportedly been organizing a leadership campaign in April 2024, in the event Trudeau stepped down.[36] Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, had been courted by the party for the leadership in 2012, and had been rumoured as a star candidate in the 2021 election.[37] In November 2024, Carney did not rule out a future leadership bid.[38] Clark, the premier of British Columbia from 2011 to 2017, had called on Trudeau to step down on multiple occasions since 2022, and in October 2024, publicly expressed interest in leading the party.[39] Anand, Champagne and Joly were also widely believed to harbour leadership ambitions.[40]
The same day as Trudeau's announcement, Frank Baylis announced his intention to run for leader.[41] Baylis, the MP for Pierrefonds—Dollard from 2015 to 2019, had publicly mulled a leadership run since June 26, 2024, after the party lost the Toronto—St. Paul's by-election.[42] On January 9, Chandra Arya, MP for Nepean, announced his leadership bid.[43]
In an interview on January 10 with CBC Radio's The House, Clark confirmed she was seriously considering running for the leadership. Addressing her endorsement of Jean Charest in the 2022 Conservative leadership election, Clark claimed to have only done so to oppose Pierre Poilievre, and insisted she had never actually been a member of the Conservative Party.[44] Following the interview, a spokesman from the Conservative Party provided a screenshot of their records showing that Clark had been a member; Clark responded, saying she had "misspoke." Four days later, on January 14, Clark announced she would not run for leader, citing the short length of the race and insufficient French.[45]
On January 13, Jaime Battiste, MP for Sydney—Victoria, announced his campaign. If elected, Battiste, who is Mi'kmaw, would have become the first Indigenous prime minister. Though he acknowledged his bid was a longshot, he hoped it would inspire other Indigenous people and pave the way for future candidates. Battiste was also motivated by Fraser declining to run, and hoped to be a voice for the Atlantic provinces in the contest.[46]
On January 14, it was reported that Gould was preparing a leadership bid. Gould was the incumbent government house leader and had previously headed several ministries.[47]
Carney announced his candidacy on January 16.[48] Freeland announced her candidacy on January 17.[49] Gould announced her candidacy on January 18.[50] Former MP Ruby Dhalla announced her campaign on January 24.[51]
On January 25, Arya was disqualified by the party.[52] Arya did not elaborate on why the party had disqualified him. In a response to media inquiries, a Liberal Party spokesman cited a section of the party rules that state a candidate can be barred if a vetting committee finds a candidate "manifestly unfit for the office of Leader of the Party," but did not elaborate on what specifically were the disqualifying factors.[53][54]
By January 27, the remaining six prospective candidates were approved by the party.[55]
On January 30, Jamie Battiste withdrew his candidacy after failing to raise the second installment of $50,000. He endorsed Mark Carney.[56][57]
Timeline
[edit]- January 6, 2025 – Governor General Mary Simon grants Trudeau's request to prorogue Parliament until March 24, 2025. Trudeau holds a press conference that morning and announces his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister as soon as his successor is chosen.[5][58] Former Liberal MP Frank Baylis announces his candidacy for the Liberal leadership.[41]
- January 8, 2025 – The National Liberal Caucus holds its first meeting since Trudeau's resignation. MPs reportedly express a preference for an expedited process and state concerns about the party's voter eligibility rules and request that voting be restricted to citizens and permanent residents in order to prevent foreign interference.[59]
- January 9, 2025 – Liberal Party president Sachit Mehra announces details for the leadership vote, including the voting date, entrance fee and membership rules.[2][60][61] Liberal MP Chandra Arya announces his candidacy for the Liberal leadership.[43]
- January 13, 2025 – Liberal MP Jaime Battiste announces his candidacy for the Liberal leadership.
- January 16, 2025 – Former governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney announces his candidacy for the Liberal leadership.[48][62]
- January 17, 2025 — Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland confirms her candidacy for the Liberal leadership in a social media post, with a formal campaign launch scheduled for January 19.[49]
- January 18, 2025 — Government house leader Karina Gould confirms her candidacy for the Liberal leadership with a formal launch being held the next day.[50]
- January 23, 2025, 5:00 p.m. (EST) – Deadline to announce leadership candidacy and pay a refundable $50,000 installment towards the entrance fee.[2][63] The party has an additional ten days to approve candidates after they have submitting their registration documents.[64]
- January 24, 2025 – Former Liberal MP Ruby Dhalla confirms her candidacy for the Liberal leadership.
- January 26, 2025 – Liberal MP Chandra Arya is disqualified.[52]
- January 27, 2025 – Deadline to register to vote.[2]
- January 30, 2025 – Jaime Battiste withdraws his candidacy for the Liberal leadership.[65] Due date for non-refundable payment of $50,000 (second installment towards entrance fee).[3]
- February 7, 2025 – Deadline for non-refundable payment of $125,000 (third installment towards entrance fee.)[3]
- February 17, 2025 – Due date for non-refundable payment of $125,000 (fourth and final installment towards $350,000 entrance fee.)[63]
- February 24, 2025 – The first French debate is held in Montreal.[66]
- February 25, 2025 – The first English debate is held in Montreal.[66]
- March 9, 2025 – Voting will end and results will be announced.[2]
Rules and procedures
[edit]Under the procedure outlined by the party's constitution, all registered Liberals will be eligible to vote directly for leader by preferential ballot as long as they have been registered at least 41 days before the day of the leadership vote. To be eligible to register as a Liberal, and thus be permitted to vote, one must be a Canadian citizen, permanent resident of Canada, or have status under the Indian Act; not be a member of another political party; and be a minimum of 14 years old.[67][2]
To be nominated, a candidate must collect 300 signatures from registered Liberals, including at least 100 from three different provinces or territories.[68]
Candidates are required to pay a $350,000 entrance fee to run. The fee is to be paid in four installments between January 23 and February 17 with only the initial $50,000 installment being refundable.[63]
Votes will be weighted, with each electoral district being allocated 100 points, and with points in a district allocated in proportion to each candidate by the number of first-preference votes received.
To win, 17,151 points are required.[69] If no candidate receives a majority of points on the first count, the candidate with the fewest points will be eliminated and their votes will be distributed in each electoral district among the remaining leadership contestants according to the next preference indicated. This process would then continue until one candidate has received a majority of points.[70]
Candidates
[edit]Official
[edit]Candidates who have submitted a minimum of 300 signatures of registered Liberals, paid the first two installments of the entrance fee, and had their applications approved by the party.[71]
Candidate | Experience | Candidacy | Policies | Campaign | Ref. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Frank Baylis |
MP for Pierrefonds—Dollard (2015–2019) |
|
Endorsements Website |
[73] | |
![]() Mark Carney |
Governor of the Bank of Canada (2008–2013) Governor of the Bank of England (2013–2020) |
|
|
Endorsements Website |
[48] |
![]() Ruby Dhalla |
MP for Brampton—Springdale (2004–2011) |
|
Website | [79] | |
![]() Chrystia Freeland |
Deputy Prime Minister of Canada (2019–2024) Minister of Finance (2020–2024) Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs (2017–2020) Minister of Foreign Affairs (2017–2019) Minister of International Trade (2015–2017) MP for University—Rosedale (2015–present) MP for Toronto Centre (2013–2015) |
|
|
Endorsements Website |
[49] |
![]() Karina Gould |
Leader of the Government in the House of Commons (2023–2025) Minister of Families, Children and Social Development (2021–2023) Minister of International Development (2019–2021) Minister of Democratic Institutions (2017–2019) MP for Burlington (2015–present) |
|
Endorsements Website |
[89] |
Withdrawn
[edit]Candidates who registered and were approved but subsequently withdrew.
- Jaime Battiste, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations (2021–present) and MP for Sydney—Victoria (2019–present).[65] Battiste declared his candidacy on January 13, 2025 and withdrew on January 30, 2025, the day the second installment of the entrance fee was due.[90][91] (Endorsed Carney)[65][91]
Failed to qualify
[edit]- Chandra Arya, MP for Nepean (2015–present). Deemed "manifestly unfit" to be leader by the Liberals' leadership vote committee.[53][52][54][55]
- Michael Clark, businessman and anti-abortion activist.[92] Failed to obtain the required number of signatures.[71]
Declined
[edit]- Anita Anand, Minister of Transport and Internal Trade (2024–present), MP for Oakville (2019–present). (Endorsed Carney)[93][94]
- François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry (2021–present), MP for Saint-Maurice—Champlain (2015–present). (Endorsed Carney)[95][96]
- Christy Clark, Premier of British Columbia (2011–2017), Deputy Premier of British Columbia (2001–2004).[97]
- Sean Fraser, Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities (2023–2024), MP for Central Nova (2015–present). (Endorsed Carney)[93][98]
- Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs (2021–present), MP for Ahuntsic-Cartierville (2015–present). (Endorsed Carney)[99][100][101]
- Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Finance (2024–present), Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs (2020–present), MP for Beauséjour (2000–present).[102]
- Steven MacKinnon, Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Labour (2024–present), MP for Gatineau (2015–present). (Endorsed Carney)[103][104][96]
- Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship (2023–present), MP for Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Sœurs (2015–present). (Endorsed Carney)[105]
- Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources (2021–present), MP for North Vancouver (2015–present). (Endorsed Carney)[106][95][107]
Endorsements
[edit]
Debates
[edit]No. | Date | Place | Host | Language | Participants — P Participant I Invited N Not invited A Absent invitee O Out of race (withdrawn or disqualified) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Battiste | Baylis | Carney | Dhalla | Freeland | Gould | |||||
1 | February 24, 2025[66] | Montreal, Quebec | Liberal Party of Canada | French | O | I | I | I | I | I |
2 | February 25, 2025[66] | Montreal, Quebec | Liberal Party of Canada | English | O | I | I | I | I | I |
Opinion polling
[edit]Liberal supporters
[edit]Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Reference | Sample size |
Anita Anand |
Mark Carney |
François- Philippe Champagne |
Christy Clark |
Chrystia Freeland |
Karina Gould |
Mélanie Joly |
Dominic LeBlanc |
Other/ undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Léger | February 10, 2025 | [108] | 432 | — | 68% | — | — | 14% | 3% | — | — | Someone else 4% Don't know 11% |
Léger | January 26, 2025 | [109] | 336 | — | 57% | — | — | 17% | 4% | — | — | Someone else 4% Don't know 17% |
Léger | January 13, 2025 | [110] | 280 | 2% | 27% | 4% | 6% | 21% | 1% | — | — | Chandra Arya 3% Steven MacKinnon 0% Someone else 5% Don't know 30% |
Abacus Data | January 7, 2025 | [111] | — | 5% | 20% | 4% | 5% | 26% | — | 7% | 6% | Steven Guilbeault 2% Don't know 25% |
Spark Advocacy | Before December 25, 2024 | [112] | — | 8% | 18% | 9% | 8% | 26% | — | 11% | 10% | Jonathan Wilkinson 8% |
Léger | December 22, 2024 | [113] | 245 | 5% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 21% | — | 4% | 7% | Someone else 7% Don't know 46% |
Léger | September 22, 2024 | [114] | 312 | 2% | 13% | 4% | 0% | 18% | — | 5% | 2% | Sean Fraser 4% Someone else 4% Don't know 46% |
All Canadians
[edit]Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Reference | Sample size |
Anita Anand |
Mark Carney |
François- Philippe Champagne |
Christy Clark |
Sean Fraser |
Chrystia Freeland |
Karina Gould |
Mélanie Joly |
Dominic LeBlanc |
Justin Trudeau |
Other/ undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Léger | February 10, 2025 | [108] | 1,590 | — | 37% | — | — | — | 12% | 3% | — | — | — | Someone else 17% Don't know 30% |
Léger | January 26, 2025 | [109] | 1,527 | — | 34% | — | — | — | 14% | 4% | — | — | — | Someone else 15% Don't know 33% |
Léger | January 13, 2025 | [110] | 1,545 | 2% | 13% | 4% | 5% | — | 14% | 1% | — | — | — | Chandra Arya 1% Steven MacKinnon 1% Someone else 14% Don't know 46% |
Abacus Data | January 7, 2025 | [111] | 2,500 | 3% | 13% | 3% | 6% | — | 17% | — | 2% | 6% | 3% | Steven Guilbeault 2% Don't know 47% |
Nanos Research | January 5, 2025 | [115] | 1,045 | 2.4% | 13.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 19.0% | — | 4.2% | 3.4% | 6.4% | NOTA 22.3% Other 5.7% Unsure 13.5% |
Spark Advocacy | Before December 25, 2024 | [112] | 2,500 | 9% | 17% | 9% | 10% | — | 23% | — | 13% | 10% | — | Jonathan Wilkinson 9% |
Léger | December 22, 2024 | [113] | 1,521 | 2% | 7% | 3% | 3% | — | 15% | — | 4% | 4% | — | Someone else 15% Don't know 48% |
Nanos Research | November 6, 2024 | [116] | 1,010 | 3.3% | 17.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 11.1% | — | 3.3% | 1.7% | 11.4% | NOTA 26.2% Other 1.9% Unsure 12.6% |
Léger | September 22, 2024 | [114] | 1,556 | 2% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 8% | — | 3% | 1% | — | Someone else 16% Don't know 55% |
Nanos Research | August 1, 2024 | [117] | 1,035 | 3.4% | 17.6% | 4.5% | — | 1.0% | 12.3% | — | 5.9% | 1.9% | 9.4% | NOTA 28.8% Unsure 15.3% |
Nanos Research | July 3, 2024 | [118] | 1,018 | 2.9% | 19.5% | 4.2% | — | 2.4% | 9.4% | — | 4.9% | 2.9% | 9.0% | NOTA 25.0% Unsure 19.8% |
Nanos Research | December 2, 2023 | [119] | 1,069 | 4.9% | 15.2% | 2.2% | — | 2.0% | 17.8% | — | 3.9% | 1.9% | 9.3% | NOTA 23.5% Unsure 19.3% |
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Le nouveau chef du Parti libéral du Canada sera connu le 9 mars". Radio Canada. January 9, 2025. Retrieved January 9, 2025.
- ^ a b c d e f "Liberal Party of Canada announces date of leadership vote". www.liberal.ca. Liberal Party of Canada. Retrieved January 10, 2025.
- ^ a b c "Liberal Party of Canada announces Leadership Expense Rules". www.liberal.ca. Liberal Party of Canada. Retrieved January 15, 2025.
- ^ "Trudeau expected to announce exit as party leader before national caucus meeting Wednesday". The Globe and Mail. January 5, 2025. Retrieved January 6, 2025.
- ^ a b Tunney, Catharine; Cochrane, David (January 6, 2025). "Trudeau resigning as Liberal leader". CBC News. Retrieved January 6, 2025.
- ^ Cotten, Amadha. "Who is next after Justin Trudeau?". The Washington Post.
- ^ "Who might replace Trudeau as Liberal Party leader?". www.bbc.com.
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- ^ MacCharles, Tonda (June 15, 2024). "This isn't just another byelection in Toronto — it might reveal the future for Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre. Here's what's at stake". Toronto Star. Archived from the original on June 21, 2024. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
- ^ Tasker, John Paul (June 24, 2024). "Conservatives win longtime Liberal stronghold Toronto-St. Paul's in shock byelection result". CBC News. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "First Liberal MP calls on Trudeau to resign: 'for the good of our country'". National Post. June 28, 2024. Retrieved January 6, 2025.
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- ^ "Conservatives decisively win B.C. federal byelection, dealing another blow to Trudeau". CBC News. December 16, 2024. Retrieved January 20, 2025.
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- ^ "Special national Liberal caucus meeting called for next week after regional chairs meet: sources". CTVNews. January 3, 2025. Retrieved January 6, 2025.
- ^ "Top Liberal MPs to discuss how to amp up pressure on Trudeau to reveal if he will step down". The Globe and Mail. January 2, 2025. Retrieved January 6, 2025.
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It's often a behind-the-scenes gig, but Anand — who is widely believed to have party leadership ambitions, alongside Freeland, Joly and Innovation, Science and Industry Francoise-Philippe Champagne — said people can expect to see her out and about.
- ^ a b "Businessman and former Grit MP Baylis first out of the gate to announce bid for Liberal leadership". The Hill Times. January 6, 2025. Retrieved January 6, 2025.
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- ^ https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/liberal-leadership-candidate-drops-out
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There is not a chance I'm running David, I could tell you that.
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