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2019 Madeiran regional election

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2019 Madeiran regional election
← 2015 22 September 2019 2023 →
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira
24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout55.5% Increase 5.8 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Miguel Albuquerque, Conferências do Mar, Crescimento Azul, A Madeira, As Regiões Ultraperiféricas e o Atlântico, Funchal, 10 de julho de 2017 - Image 141026 (cropped).jpg
Paulo Cafôfo, Secretário de Estado das Comunidades Portuguesas 2022.png
Leader Miguel Albuquerque Paulo Cafôfo[a] Rui Barreto
Party PSD PS CDS–PP
Leader since 10 January 2015 19 January 2018
(PRGM candidate) 		22 July 2018
Last election 24 seats, 44.4% 5 seats (CM)[b] 7 seats, 13.1%
Seats won 21 19 3
Seat change Decrease 3 Increase 14 Decrease 4
Popular vote 56,449 51,207 8,246
Percentage 39.4% 35.8% 5.8%
Swing Decrease 4.9 pp [b] Decrease 7.9 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
JPP
Edgar-silva-2016-01-11.jpg
Leader Élvio Sousa Edgar Silva
Party JPP CDU
Leader since 27 January 2015 1996
Last election 5 seats, 10.3% 2 seats, 5.5%
Seats won 3 1
Seat change Decrease 2 Decrease 1
Popular vote 7,830 2,577
Percentage 5.5% 1.8%
Swing Decrease 4.8 pp Decrease 3.7 pp
The most voted party by municipality.
President before election

Miguel Albuquerque
PSD

Elected President

Miguel Albuquerque
PSD

Regional elections were held on 22 September 2019[1] to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira in Portugal. All 47 members of the Assembly were up for election.

The Social Democratic Party continued their 43-year streak of being the largest party in the Madeiran legislature, but failed to hold on to their absolute majority, and would require a coalition for the first time to remain in power. The party won 39 percent of the votes, a decrease of 5 percentage points, and lost 3 members of the regional party. In the electoral map, the PSD lost the two biggest cities in Madeira, Funchal and Santa Cruz to the PS, although by less than 2 percent of the vote. Overall, the PSD still won the majority of municipalities, obtaining victory in 7 of the 11 in Madeira.

The Socialist Party surged in these elections, polling just two seats and 3.6 points behind the PSD. It was the best showing of the PS in a regional election in Madeira going back to the first regional elections in 1976, two years after the fall of the dictatorship. The party won 4 of the 11 municipalities in Madeira. The People's Party lost a lot of votes and seats in these elections, winning just 3 seats and 5.8 percent of the vote. Together for the People (JPP) also suffered a big setback by losing 2 members and almost 5 percent of the votes. It even failed to obtain second place in their traditional bastion of Santa Cruz, falling behind the PS and PSD. The Unitary Democratic Coalition lost 1 of their 2 seats, and lost 3.7 percent of votes compared to 2015. The Left Bloc was wiped from the regional Assembly completely and only won 1.7 percent of the votes. These elections were fought mainly between the PSD and PS, and many left-wing voters opted to vote tactically for the PS to prevent another PSD victory, but by doing so, they hurt the chances of smaller left-wing parties and alliances such as the Left Bloc and CDU.[2]

The turnout in these elections increased compared to the previous one for the first time in over a decade, with 55.5 percent of voters casting a ballot, compared with the record-low 49.6 percent in the 2015 elections.

Following the elections, PSD and CDS-PP formed a coalition government with a parliamentary majority, headed by Miguel Albuquerque.[3]

Background

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Leadership changes and challenges

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Socialist Party

[edit]

After the party's dismal result in the 2015 reginal election, just 11 percent of the votes, the then PS leader, Victor Freitas resigned and a leadership ballot was called.[4] Carlos Pereira was the sole candidate for the leadership and was elected with 70% of the votes.[5] However, Pereira's leadership divided the party, as he spent much more time in the Assembly of the Republic, in Lisbon, rather than in Madeira. A leadership ballot was called for 19 January 2018 and two candidates were on the ballot: Incumbent leader Carlos Pereira and Porto Moniz mayor, Emanuel Câmara. Câmara defeated Pereira by a 57 to 43 percent margin.[6] The results were the following:

Ballot: 19 January 2018
Candidate Votes %
Emanuel Câmara 877 56.8
Carlos Pereira 668 43.2
Turnout 1,545 79.15
Source: [7]

Despite being elected leader, Emanuel Câmara announced that he would not be the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Regional Government and that he would pick Funchal mayor Paulo Cafôfo as the party's lead candidate.[8]

Electoral system

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The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.[9]

Parties

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Current composition

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The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

Name Ideology Leader 2015 result
% Seats
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata 		Liberal conservatism Miguel Albuquerque 44.4%
24 / 47
CDS–PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular 		Conservatism Rui Barreto 13.1%
7 / 47
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista 		Social democracy Emanuel Câmara[a]
Paulo Cafôfo 		11.4%
[b]
5 / 47
PTP Portuguese Labour Party
Partido Trabalhista Português 		Social democracy Quintino Costa
1 / 47
JPP Together for the People
Juntos pelo Povo 		Centrism Élvio Sousa 10.3%
5 / 47
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português 		Communism Edgar Silva 5.5%
[c]
2 / 47
B.E. Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda 		Democratic socialism Paulino Ascenção 3.8%
2 / 47
Ind. Independent
Independente 		Gil Canha (elected for the now extinct PND)
1 / 47

Parties running in the election

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17 parties were on the ballot for the 2019 Madeira regional election. The parties that contested the election and their lead candidates were: (parties/coalitions are ordered by the way they appeared on the ballot)[10]

Campaign period

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Party slogans

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Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PSD « Cumprir no rumo certo » "Delivering on the right track" [21]
CDS–PP « Este é o momento » "This is the moment" [22]
PS « Coragem para mudar » "Courage to change" [23]
JPP « Dar voz aos Madeirenses » "Giving voice to Madeirans" [24]
BE « A Madeira para todos » "Madeira for all" [25]
CDU « CDU, o voto que conta » "CDU, the vote that counts" [26]

Candidates' debates

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2019 Madeiran regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     I  Invitee    P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PSD
Albuquerque 		PS
Cafôfo 		CDS–PP
Barreto 		BE
Ascenção 		CDU
Silva 		JPP
Sousa 		Refs
19 Sep RTP Madeira, RTP3 Gil Rosa P P P P P P [27]

Opinion polls

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Graphical summary

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Polling

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  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSD CDS–PP PS
Logo Juntos pelo Povo.png
 CDU BE PTP PAN MPT A O Lead
2019 regional election 22 Sep 2019 — 55.5% 39.4
21 		5.8
3 		35.8
19 		5.5
3 		1.8
1 		1.7
0 		1.0
0 		1.5
0 		0.4
0 		0.5
0 		6.6
0 		3.6
UCP-CESOP 22 Sep 2019 6,000 ? 37–41
19/23 		5–7
2/3 		34–38
17/21 		3–5
1/2 		1–3
0/1 		1–3
0/1 		- 1–2
0/1 		- - - 3
Eurosondagem 15–17 Sep 2019 1,525 ? 36.0
19 		8.0
4 		33.6
17/18 		2.5
1 		4.5
2 		4.0
2 		0.7
0 		?
0/1 		- ?
0/1 		10.7
0/1 		2.4
Intercampus 2–16 Sep 2019 1,503 ? 39.0
21 		9.3
5 		33.1
17 		3.4
1 		3.9
2 		2.2
1 		- - - - 9.1
0 		5.9
UCP-CESOP 14–15 Sep 2019 1,375 ? 38
19/23 		5
2/3 		29
14/18 		4
2/3 		3
1/2 		5
2/3 		- 2
1 		1.5
0/1 		1.5
0/1 		11
0 		9
Eurosondagem 21–24 Jul 2019 1,519 ? 33.3
18/19 		7.1
3/4 		31.9
17/18 		4.2
2 		4.0
2 		6.9
3/4 		0.5
0 		- - - 12.0
0/1 		1.4
2019 EP elections 26 May 2019 — 38.5 37.2 8.1 25.8 — 3.0 5.3 1.3 3.7 — 1.6 14.0 11.4
CDS-PP internal 8 Feb 2019 ? ? 36.0
19/20 		8.0
4/5 		33.0
18/19 		4.0
2 		3.0
1 		3.0
1 		2.0
0/1 		- - - 11.0
0 		3.0
Eurosondagem 14–17 Jan 2019 1,510 ? 34.7
18/19 		8.0
4 		36.9
19/20 		4.8
2 		3.6
1/2 		4.0
2 		0.9
0 		- - - 7.1
0 		2.2
Eurosondagem 26–28 Nov 2018 748 ? 34.2
18 		10.6
5 		33.9
18 		6.5
3 		3.4
1 		4.0
2 		1.6
0 		- - - 5.8
0 		0.3
Intercampus 21–26 Nov 2018 400 ? ?
19 		?
2 		?
23 		?
2 		?
1 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
Eurosondagem 19–24 Jul 2018 1,018 ? 36.3
18/19 		7.1
3/4 		35.7
18/19 		6.0
3 		4.8
2 		3.9
2 		1.2
0 		- - [e] 5.0
0 		0.6
Eurosondagem 5–7 Feb 2018 1,018 ? 38.5
20/21 		5.9
3 		33.2
17/18 		6.8
3 		3.1
1 		4.9
2 		1.4
0 		- - 6.2
0 		5.3
Eurosondagem 22–24 Oct 2017 1,017 ? 36.3
19 		6.0
3 		33.6
17 		6.5
3 		4.5
2 		4.1
2 		2.1
1 		- - 6.9
0 		2.7
2017 local elections 1 Oct 2017 — 54.2 33.6 9.1 29.1 10.2 2.4 0.7 1.7 — 0.6 12.6 4.5
Eurosondagem 7–9 Jun 2017 1,010 ? 40.4
21/22 		5.4
2/3 		30.0
15/16 		4.7
2 		4.9
2 		5.9
2 		1.9
2 		- - 6.8
0 		10.4
Eurosondagem 14–16 Mar 2017 1,017 ? 38.0
20/21 		8.6
4 		27.2
14/15 		4.1
2 		5.0
2/3 		6.93 1.3
– 		- - 8.90 10.8
2015 legislative election 4 Oct 2015 — 48.9 37.8 6.0 20.9 6.9 3.6 10.7 1.4 1.8 1.4 13.5 16.9
2015 regional election 29 Mar 2015 — 49.6 44.4
24 		13.7
7 		11.4[b]
5 		10.3
5 		5.5
2 		3.8
2 		[b]
1 		[b]
0 		[b]
0 		10.9
1 		30.7

Voter turnout

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The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.

Turnout Time
12:00 16:00 19:00
2015 2019 ± 2015 2019 ± 2015 2019 ±
Total 17.21% 20.97% Increase 3.76 pp 37.48% 40.79% Increase 3.31 pp 49.58% 55.50% Increase 5.92 pp
Sources[28][29]

Results

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On election night, the centre-right PSD and national-conservative CDS said they were willing to form a coalition government.[30]

Summary of the 22 September 2019 Legislative Assembly of Madeira elections results
Parties Votes % ±pp swing MPs MPs %/
votes %
2015 2019 ± % ±
Social Democratic 56,449 39.42 Decrease4.9 24 21 Decrease3 44.68 Decrease6.4 1.13
Socialist 51,207 35.76 [b] 5 19 Increase14 40.43 Increase29.8 1.13
People's 8,246 5.76 Decrease8.0 7 3 Decrease4 6.38 Decrease8.5 1.11
Together for the People 7,830 5.47 Decrease4.8 5 3 Decrease2 6.38 Decrease4.3 1.17
Unitary Democratic Coalition 2,577 1.80 Decrease3.7 2 1 Decrease1 2.13 Decrease2.1 1.18
Left Bloc 2,489 1.74 Decrease2.1 2 0 Decrease2 0.00 Decrease4.2 0.0
People-Animals-Nature 2,095 1.46 [b] 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
United Party of Retirees and Pensioners 1,766 1.23 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
React, Include, Recycle 1,749 1.22 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Labour 1,426 1.00 [b] 1 0 Decrease1 0.00 Decrease2.1 0.0
Alliance 766 0.53 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Liberal Initiative 762 0.53 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
CHEGA 619 0.43 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Democratic Republican 603 0.42 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Portuguese Workers' Communist 601 0.42 Decrease1.3 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Earth 507 0.35 [b] 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
National Renovator 274 0.19 Decrease0.6 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Total valid 139,966 97.74 Increase2.1 47 47 Steady0 100.00 Steady0.0 —
Blank ballots 700 0.49 Decrease0.5
Invalid ballots 2,534 1.77 Decrease1.6
Total 143,200 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 258,005 55.50 Increase5.8
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PSD
 
 39.42%
PS
 
 35.76%
CDS-PP
 
 5.76%
JPP
 
 5.47%
CDU
 
 1.80%
BE
 
 1.74%
PAN
 
 1.46%
PURP
 
 1.23%
RIR
 
 1.22%
PTP
 
 1.00%
Alliance
 
 0.53%
IL
 
 0.53%
Others
 
 1.81%
Blank/Invalid
 
 2.26%
Parliamentary seats
PSD
 
 44.68%
PS
 
 40.43%
CDS-PP
 
 6.38%
JPP
 
 6.38%
CDU
 
 2.13%

Maps

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  • Most voted political force by parish.
    Most voted political force by parish.

Aftermath

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Government approval

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For the first time in democracy, the PSD failed to win an outright majority of seats and was forced to negotiate with other parties. Shortly after, the party reached a deal with CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) to form a coalition government.[3] On 13 November 2019, the regional parliament approved Albuquerque's second led government, the first coalition government in Madeira:

2019 Motion of confidence
Miguel Albuquerque (PSD)
Ballot → 13 November 2019
Required majority → Simple checkY
Yes
24 / 47
No
23 / 47
Abstentions
0 / 47
Absentees
0 / 47
Sources[31]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b The leader of the PS-Madeira is Emanuel Câmara, but he has nominated the mayor of Funchal, Paulo Cafôfo, as the PS candidate for the Presidency of the Madeira Government.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k PS, PTP, PAN and MPT contested the 2015 election in an electoral coalition called Change which received 11.4% of the vote.
  3. ^ The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2015 election jointly as the Unitary Democratic Coalition, and won a combined 5.5% of the vote and elected 2 MPs to parliament.
  4. ^ Roberto Vieira is a former Earth Party (MPT) member.
  5. ^ Did not exist.

References

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  1. ^ "Marcelo anuncia eleições legislativas em 6 de outubro", Sapo 24, 7 December 2018. Retrieved 7 December 2018.
  2. ^ PSD ganha eleições na Madeira mas perde maioria absoluta. PS dispara, Jornal de Negócios, 22 September 2019. Retrieved 23 September 2019.
  3. ^ a b Berenguer, Márcio (8 October 2019). "Albuquerque e Barreto assinam acordo de coligação de governo". Público (in Portuguese). Archived from the original on 14 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
  4. ^ "Carlos Pereira será o novo líder do PS-Madeira". Sol. 2015-05-25. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  5. ^ "Carlos Pereira quer um novo caminho para o PS-Madeira". Público. 2015-05-30. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  6. ^ "Emanuel Câmara é novo líder do PS-Madeira, mas é Cafôfo quem mais ordena". Público. 2018-01-20. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  7. ^ "Emanuel Câmara foi hoje eleito novo presidente do PS/Madeira". Público. 2018-01-20. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  8. ^ "Oficial: Cafôfo é o candidato do PS contra Miguel Albuquerque". Visão. 2018-05-26. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  9. ^ Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição para a Assembleia Legislativa da Região Autónoma da Madeira 2007
  10. ^ Sorteio das Candidaturas - ALRAM 2019, Comissão Nacional de Eleições, 14 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  11. ^ Legislativas 2019: Filipe Rebelo é candidato do PDR às regionais na Madeira e às legislativas, Sapo24, 23 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  12. ^ Eleições na Madeira: Chega diz que vai ser governo na região “custe o que custar”, Sapo24, 19 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  13. ^ Eleições na Madeira: PNR defende redução de deputados de 47 para 30, Sapo24, 19 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  14. ^ Eleições na Madeira: PAN ressurge na região e quer eleger dois deputados, Sapo24, 20 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  15. ^ Eleições na Madeira: Aliança considera “estruturante” a eleição de um grupo parlamentar, Sapo24, 20 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  16. ^ Eleições na Madeira: MPT quer ressurgir e eleger representação parlamentar, Sapo24, 20 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  17. ^ Eleições na Madeira: PCTP/MRPP assume-se como o “partido dos pobres” e contra os “usurpadores” da autonomia, Sapo24, 21 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  18. ^ Iniciativa Liberal quer eliminar cargo de Representante da República, Sapo24, 23 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  19. ^ Eleições na Madeira: PURP promete “envolver as pessoas” e “lutar ferozmente” contra os lóbis, Sapo24, 22 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  20. ^ Eleições na Madeira: RIR estreia-se com receio de ser prejudicado por candidato ter sido do MPT, Sapo24, 22 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  21. ^ "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – PSD". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  22. ^ "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – CDS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  23. ^ "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  24. ^ "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – JPP". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  25. ^ "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – BE". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  26. ^ "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – CDU". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  27. ^ "Eleições da Madeira - Debates". RTP Madeira (in Portuguese). 19 September 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  28. ^ "Regionais 2019 - Afluência". eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/regionais2019/index.html (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration. Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  29. ^ "Regionais 2015 - Afluência". eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/regionais2015/index.html (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration. Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  30. ^ Miguel Albuquerque admite "coligação de governo" com CDS-PP , Jornal de Negócios, 22 September 2019. Retrieved 23 September 2019.
  31. ^ "Madeira: Programa do Governo regional aprovado por PSD e CDS". Público (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 13 November 2019. Retrieved 11 February 2024.
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