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Dreadnought-class submarine

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Template:About2

Dreadnought class
Class overview
Builders
Operators Royal Navy
Preceded byTemplate:Sclass-
Planned4
Building1
General characteristics
TypeBallistic missile submarine (SSBN)
Displacement17,200 tons
Length152.9 metres (502 ft)
PropulsionNuclear reactor, turbo-electric drive, pump-jet
RangeUnlimited
Complement130
ArmamentUp to 12× Trident D5 in 12 tubes (8x to be carried as per SDSR 2010 & 2015)

The Dreadnought-class (previously named Successor class) is the replacement for the Vanguard-class of ballistic missile submarines which entered service in the United Kingdom in the 1990s with an intended service life of 25 years.[1] They will carry Trident D-5 missiles – the vehicle for delivering the UK's nuclear weapons.[2] Replacing the Vanguard submarines is necessary if the Royal Navy is to maintain a "continuous at-sea deterrent" (CASD), the principle of operation behind the Trident system.[3]

In May 2011 the government approved the initial assessment phase for the new submarines and authorised the purchase of long lead-time items including steel for the hulls. In May 2015 the Conservative Party won the UK General Election on a manifesto which included a commitment to maintaining a CASD with four Successor submarines.[4] The final decision to commit to the Successor programme was voted through on the 18th of July 2016, the Commons voted to renew Trident by 472 votes to 117.[5] Construction is expected to start in late 2016 at the Barrow-in-Furness shipyard operated by BAE Systems Maritime – Submarines. The first submarine was originally expected to enter service in 2028.[6]

Successor has generated controversy because of its cost[7] and also as some political parties and campaign groups such as the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) or Trident Ploughshares oppose the retention of CASD or any nuclear weapons by the UK on moral or financial grounds.[8][9]

On 20 October 2016 (to mark Trafalgar Day) it was announced that the first of class would be named Dreadnought, and that the class would be the Dreadnought class.[10][11] The next three boats will also be given names with "historical resonance".[12]

Background

A Trident missile launches from a submerged submarine

Since the retirement of the last Royal Air Force WE.177 nuclear bomb in 1998, the British nuclear arsenal has been wholly submarine-based. This is intended to deter a potential enemy because they cannot ensure eliminating the entire stockpile in a first strike if a ballistic missile submarine remains undetected.

Since the Strategic Defence Review, the UK has maintained a stockpile of around 200 warheads. In a policy known as "Continuous at Sea Deterrence", at least one Vanguard class SSBN (nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine) is kept on patrol with up to 16 Trident missiles sharing up to 48 warheads from the stockpile at any given time. The SDR considered this was the minimum number of warheads adequate for deterrence. It is collectively known as the Trident system.[13] The majority of this system is based in Scotland at HM Naval Base Clyde, which includes the Faslane home of the Vanguard submarines, and at the Coulport nuclear depot. Since 1998, the system has also provided the Government with the option of a lower-yield, "sub-strategic" nuclear strike capability.[14]

The oldest Vanguard-class submarine is expected to remain in service until 2017[15] without a refit, prompting consideration of a replacement before the end of 2010 to allow for development time.[13]

Renewal of the Trident system

Proposal

A December 2006 Ministry of Defence white paper recommended that the nuclear weapons should be maintained and outlined measures that would do so until the 2040s. It advocated the currently preferred submarine-based system, as it remained the cheapest and most secure deterrence option available.

Costs for this option are estimated at £15–20 billion based on:

  • £0.25 billion to participate in U.S. Trident D5 missile life extension programme.
  • £11–14 billion for a class of four new SSBNs.
  • £2–3 billion for refurbishing warheads.
  • £2–3 billion for infrastructure.[16]

These 2006/7 prices would equate to about £25bn in out-turn price for the successor submarines; the 2011 Initial Gate report confirmed estimates of £2-3bn each for the warheads and infrastructure.[17] These cost estimates exclude the Vanguard five-year life extension and decommissioning, and it is unclear if new Trident missiles will need to be purchased for the life extension programme.[15]

Running costs would be about £1.5 billion per year at 2006 prices.[15]

On 18 May 2011 the British government approved the initial assessment phase for the construction of new submarines, paving the way for the ordering of the first long-lead items and preparations for the main build to begin in the future. The new submarine class will retain the current Trident II missiles,[citation needed] and will incorporate a new 'PWR3' nuclear reactor as well as technology developed for the Astute-class nuclear-powered fleet submarines. The final decision on whether to build the Successor submarines would not be taken until 2016[18] and the first boat will be delivered in 2028.[17]

Trident D5 missile life extension

In 2002, the US Navy awarded a contract for the Trident II D5 Service Life Extension Programme to extend the life of the missiles from the mid-2020s to about 2042, to match the extended life of the US Template:Sclass-. The UK will join this programme to arm a Vanguard submarine class replacement.

Submarines

The paper suggested parts of the existing Trident system be refitted to some extent to prolong their lives. However, the relatively short (five years) life extension potential of the Vanguard class meant that a new class of SSBNs should replace it in the early 2020s. The first SSBN would take 17 years to be designed and built, making a five-year life extension of the Vanguard class necessary. On this basis, a refitted Vanguard class could still shrink by at least one vessel before the first replacement SSBN enters service.[16]

Both BAE Systems Submarine Solutions and Rolls-Royce Marine Power Operations were already undertaking design studies for the new submarine class in 2009.[19] BAE presented two designs at DSEi 2007 labelled Concept 35 and Advanced Hull Form (AHF). Concept 35 is an evolution of the Vanguard-class with influences from the Astute-class.[19] Advanced Hull Form is a less conservative design which, rather than a standard tapered design of the stern, features a Y-shaped stern which houses much of the boat's machinery outside of the pressure hull. A picture of the Successor boat released in late 2013 showed a conventional design similar to Concept 35, but with an X-shaped tail.[20]

Power plant

In March 2011 a safety assessment of the current Rolls-Royce PWR nuclear power plant design, by the Defence Nuclear Safety Regulator in November 2009, was released under a Freedom of Information request.[21] The Regulator identified two major areas where UK practice fell significantly short of comparable good practice, loss-of-coolant accident and control of submarine depth following emergency reactor shutdown.[22][23] For the replacement submarine the option of developing a new PWR3 plant based on current US design is under consideration, and in March 2011 Defence Secretary Liam Fox indicated this was the preferred option "because those reactors give us a better safety outlook".[24][25] In May 2011 the Ministry of Defence announced that the US design had been selected for the PWR3, at a cost of about £3 billion.[26]

Munitions

The 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review concluded that the Successor submarine would have eight operational missiles carrying no more than 40 operational warheads between them. This would allow the UK to reduce its stocks of operational warheads from 160 to 120, and the overall stockpile from no more than 225 to no more than 180.[17] They would be carried in a 12-missile common missile compartment designed in collaboration with the US for their SSBN-X, which could accommodate the current Trident D5 missiles and any replacement missile once the D5 reaches the end of its expected life in the 2040s.[17]

The remaining warheads are expected to last until the mid-2020s, with a decision to either replace or refurbish them taken closer to that time. The government-owned nuclear weapons research company Atomic Weapons Establishment would likely play a key role in either, with over £1 billion being invested between 2005 and 2008 to maintain "key skills and facilities."[27] The replacement of the Trident missiles was also deferred, as the UK intends to participate in a US programme to lengthen the missiles' lives from the 2020s through to the 2040s.[16]

Alternatives

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British defence and security think tank, released a paper in July 2010 assessing "four possible options for maintaining both an effective nuclear deterrent and also reducing costs in light of anticipated budget restrictions."[28] These proposals were motivated by the fact that funding for the Trident renewal programme must now come from the core MoD budget.[29]

The paper outlined four options consistent with the purposes of cost reduction:[30]

Normally-CASD submarine Force
"Under this option, the UK would maintain Trident missiles and submarines, and CASD [Continuous At-Sea Deterrence] would be maintained as normal operating practice. But the MoD would accept an increased risk of short interruptions in CASD in the event of unforeseen, and low-probability, mishaps or accidents."
CASD-capable Submarine force
"Under this option, the attempt to maintain CASD in normal circumstances would be abandoned, and replaced by an assumption that it would only be necessary to have the ability to reconstitute CASD if required, and then to maintain it for a significant (though not indefinite) period...In order to maintain a credible reconstitution capability, it would be necessary to maintain submarine patrols. But these would not necessarily have to be on a continuous basis."
Dual-capable submarine force
"This would maintain the plan to build new submarines, but with only four missile tubes (compared with the twelve currently planned) and with an explicit design mandate that asked designers to allow them also to perform conventional roles...It would not be possible, however, for potential adversaries to detect whether or not a particular boat was nuclear-armed when it went on patrol. Such an arrangement could, in time, combine increased survivability for the nuclear force while also holding out the possibility of further reductions in the size and readiness of the nuclear deterrent."
Non-deployed strategic force
"A more radical option would be to abandon submarine-based nuclear weapons altogether, relying instead on a non-deployed arsenal to provide deterrence of future nuclear attacks...The key to an effective UK nuclear deterrent based on this option would be guaranteed, but not prompt, retaliation." Although concluding that "such an option is probably too radical to be politically acceptable at present...It should not be ruled out as a longer-term option, however, perhaps as part of a multilateral agreement to move to lower states of nuclear readiness."

The paper concludes that "given the opportunity costs for conventional capabilities that current plans for Trident renewal are due to incur over the next decade...there is now a growing case for a re-examination of whether there are less expensive means of pursuing this objective. A key element of such a review is likely to be a reconsideration of the need to maintain a commitment to CASD in strategic circumstances that are now very different from those in which it was first introduced."[30]

The Liberal Democrat partners within the then Coalition Government, commissioned a review of the proposed new system. In July 2013, the British Government published this Trident Alternatives Review.[31] Its findings included:

  • There are alternatives to the current posture which would enable the UK to inflict "significant damage" and deter aggressors
  • Submarines could potentially be operated at "reduced readiness" when threat levels are lower
  • A continuous-at-sea presence is the most "resilient" posture and guarantees the quickest response
  • Land and air-based delivery systems effectively ruled out
  • An entirely new system, using cruise rather than ballistic missiles, would be more expensive than renewing Trident[32]

Parliamentary support

On 14 March 2007, the Labour government won Commons support for the plans to renew the submarine system. The proposals were passed by the House of Commons by a majority of 248.[33] Despite a clarification that the vote was just for the concept stage of the new system, 95 Labour MPs rebelled, and it was only passed with the support of the opposition Conservative Party.[33][34] It was the first time MPs had been given the chance to vote on whether the UK should remain a nuclear power, and the biggest rebellion since the beginning of the 2003 Iraq war.[33]

The Labour government proposed that the final decision to manufacture should be made in 2014.[35] The new 2010 coalition government agreed "that the renewal of Trident should be scrutinised to ensure value for money. Liberal Democrats will continue to make the case for alternatives." Research and development work continued with an 'Initial Gate' procurement decision, but the 'Main Gate' decision to manufacture a replacement was re-scheduled for 2016, after the 2015 General Election.[35]

In May 2013 it was reported that Whitehall's forthcoming Alternatives Review had found that land, air or cruise missile systems would be more expensive or more impractical than Trident, and that there would be little saving in reducing from 4 submarines to 3. Cutting to two submarines would cut the capital cost by up to £5bn and save nearly £1bn/year in running costs, but would mean that continuous patrols were no longer possible. The Liberal Democrats, minority partners in the ruling Coalition government, appeared to favour this 2-boat Trident option whilst their Conservative partners preferred the 4-boat option, quoted as costing £20bn.[36] The review found that participating in the US Trident programme was cheaper than starting a UK-only cruise missile programme, previously the Liberal Democrats' preferred option.[36]

In September 2015, Jeremy Corbyn was elected as Labour leader. He was opposed to Trident, but as of January 2016, party policy has not officially been changed yet as a review of Labour's defence policy is being undertaken.

2016 Trident renewal plan

The vote on whether to replace the Vanguard-class submarines with the Successor-class was held on 18 July 2016 in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom; the motion to do so passed with a significant majority[37] extending the programme's life until at least the 2060s. As expected, Jeremy Corbyn and 47 Labour MPs had voted against it; 41 did not vote but 140 Labour votes were cast in favour of the motion.[38]

The Successor submarines were expected to be in operation by 2028[39] extending the Trident programme's life until at least the 2060s.[40] At that time[when?], there was already some urgency to move ahead because it was reportedly could take up to 17 years to develop the Successor models[41] The final cost of the four new submarines would not be certain until the project has been completed. The MoD put the cost of building, testing and commissioning the replacement vessels at £31 billion (plus a contingency fund of £10 billion) over 35 years, or about 0.2 per cent of government spending, or 6 per cent of defence spending, every year.[42] Crispin Blunt, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, estimated in July 2016 that the programme would cost £179 billion in total over its lifetime.[43] The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament said the total cost will be at least £205bn.[44] According to a report by the Guardian in July 2016, £3.9bn was spent during the design stages.[44]

Academic review

The Bradford Disarmament Research Centre has received funding from several anti-nuclear organizations, including the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, for a review of the Government's reasons for replacing Trident,[45] aiming "to transform the intellectual agenda on Trident replacement through a detailed and critical examination of the government's rationales for Trident replacement, a number of crucial issues excluded by the government and the wider implications of the decision, which require a full and balanced."

Public support

In April 2015, a YouGov poll found that 38% of people thought that Trident should be replaced in full, 28% wanted to replace it with a cheaper system, 19% though the UK should completely give up its nuclear weapons and 15% didn't know.[46] In September 2015, a Survation poll found that 29% agreed that Trident should be reformed to make it cheaper, 26% that it should be renewed in full, and 18% that it should be scrapped. 27% did not know.[47]

Nuclear weapons are not the nation's biggest issue, with just 2% of people saying that it was nation’s biggest worry in May 2015, compared to 21% in June 1987.[48]

Expert opinion

In 2010, two non-representative polls of experts from the Royal Institute of International Affairs (commonly known as Chatham House) and the Royal United Services Institute were conducted. The first found a majority for RUSI of those that think the benefits of Trident outweigh the costs (53%) compared to those that think the costs outweigh the benefits (13%) or are evenly balanced (34%). The Chatham House poll found a minority in favour of Trident replacement (22%), more in favour of replacing with a cheaper system (43%) with 29% saying the UK should not replace Trident at all.[49]

See also

References

  1. ^ "Successor submarine programme: factsheet". MoD. Retrieved 1 March 2016.
  2. ^ "The Future of the United Kingdom's Nuclear Deterrent, Factsheet 4 The Current System" (PDF). Gov.uk. December 2006. Retrieved 2015-09-20.
  3. ^ "Supporting the UK's deterrent". AWE. Retrieved 1 March 2016.
  4. ^ "Conservative Party Manifesto 2015" (PDF). Conservative Party. p. 77. Retrieved 16 May 2015.
  5. ^ Mills, Claire (13 August 2013). "Update on the Trident Successor Programme - Commons Library Standard Note". Standard Notes. House of Commons Library. Retrieved 21 June 2014.
  6. ^ "Successor submarine shipyard gets £300m investment". BBC News. 13 March 2014. Retrieved 21 June 2014.
  7. ^ http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-defence-trident-idUKKCN0SZ2IC20151110
  8. ^ "Trident debate to top CND agenda". BBC News. 14 October 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-01.
  9. ^ "Unions oppose replacing Trident". BBC News. 13 September 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-01.
  10. ^ "New Successor Submarines Named" (Press release). Gov.uk. 21 October 2016. Retrieved 21 October 2016.
  11. ^ "First of Barrow's new Successor submarines given historically celebrated name". North West Evening Mail. 21 October 2016. Retrieved 21 October 2016.
  12. ^ "New nuclear submarine given famous naval name". BBC News. Retrieved 21 October 2016.
  13. ^ a b "The Future of the UK's Strategic Nuclear Deterrent" (PDF). House of Commons Defence Committee. 30 June 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-01.
  14. ^ Greenpeace (June 20, 2006). "Annex A: Making Trident more usable and more threatening". Select Committee on Defence Written Evidence. House of Commons. Retrieved June 2, 2012.
  15. ^ a b c "The Future of the UK's Strategic Nuclear Deterrent: the White Paper" (PDF). House of Commons Defence Committee. 7 March 2007. Retrieved 2007-03-15.
  16. ^ a b c "The Future of the United Kingdom's Nuclear Deterrent" (PDF). Ministry of Defence. 4 December 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-05.
  17. ^ a b c d "The United Kingdom's Future Nuclear Deterrent: The Submarine Initial Gate Parliamentary Report" (PDF). UK Ministry of Defence. May 2011.
  18. ^ "Daily Hansard - Written Answers". UK Parliament. 18 September 2012.
  19. ^ a b "Nuclear options". The Engineer. 2009-01-12. Retrieved 13 January 2009.
  20. ^ "Current News". www.defenceimagery.mod.uk. Retrieved 2016-09-19.
  21. ^ Rob Edwards (10 March 2011). "Flaws in nuclear submarine reactors could be fatal, secret report warns". The Guardian. Retrieved 28 March 2011.
  22. ^ "Annex B: Successor SSBN - Safety Regulator's advice on the selection of the propulsion plant in support of the future deterrent (4 November 2009)". Successor Submaring Project - Update (PDF). Ministry of Defence. 24 November 2009. p. 21. EC-14-02-02-01-14 / Annex B: DNSR/22/11/2. Retrieved 28 March 2011Template:Inconsistent citations{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: postscript (link)
  23. ^ Joseph Watts (11 March 2011). "Expert warned MoD on safety of Rolls-Royce nuclear sub reactors". Derby Telegraph. Retrieved 28 March 2011.
  24. ^ "Fox wants new reactors for Trident". defencemanagement.com. 15 March 2011. Retrieved 28 March 2011.
  25. ^ Severin Carrell (23 March 2011). "Navy to axe 'Fukushima type' nuclear reactors from submarines". The Guardian. Retrieved 28 March 2011.
  26. ^ "PWR3 Reactor chosen for Trident". defencemanagement.com. 18 May 2011. Retrieved 17 June 2011.
  27. ^ "Written Ministerial Statements". House of Commons. 19 July 2005. Retrieved 2006-12-01.
  28. ^ "Like for like renewal of Trident will come at expense of conventional forces". Retrieved 2010-09-10.
  29. ^ "Trident costs must come from MoD budget, Osborne says". BBC News. 30 July 2010. Retrieved 2010-09-10.
  30. ^ a b Continuous At-Sea Deterrence: Costs and Alternatives (PDF). RUSI. July 2010. Retrieved 2010-09-10.
  31. ^ Trident Alternatives Review (PDF). UK Government. July 2013. Retrieved 2013-07-19.
  32. ^ Lib Dems accuse Tories of trying to 'rubbish' Trident report. BBC. July 2013. Retrieved 2013-07-19.
  33. ^ a b c "Trident plan wins Commons support". BBC News. 15 March 2007. Retrieved 2007-03-15.
  34. ^ "Blair wins Trident nuclear arsenal vote". ABC News. 15 March 2007. Retrieved 2007-03-15.
  35. ^ a b "Trident: The Initial Gate Decision" (PDF). Briefings on Nuclear Security. British Pugwash. July 2011. Retrieved 31 December 2012.
  36. ^ a b Stacey, Kiran (27 May 2013). "Trident UK's best option, says review". Financial Times.
  37. ^ "MPs approve Trident renewal". BBC News. 18 July 2016. Retrieved 18 July 2016. MPs approve Trident renewal
  38. ^ Kuenssberg, Laura (19 July 2016). "MPs vote to renew Trident weapons system". BBC News. BBC. Retrieved 19 July 2016. Jeremy Corbyn has been heckled and accused of lying by his own MPs and told he was "defending the countries' enemies" as he announced he would vote against renewing Trident.
  39. ^ "Everything you need to know about Trident - Britain's nuclear deterrent". ITV News. ITV plc. 18 July 2016. Retrieved 20 July 2016. The £40 billion construction of a new fleet, Successor, could begin this year and be operational by 2028 while the current fleet will be phased out by 2032.
  40. ^ Tom Peck (18 July 2016). "Theresa May warns threat of nuclear attack has increased ahead of Trident vote". Independent. Retrieved 18 July 2016.
  41. ^ "A guide to Trident and the debate about replacement". BBC News. BBC. 18 July 2016. Retrieved 20 July 2016.
  42. ^ "UK nuclear deterrence: what you need to know". Ministry of Defence. 26 February 2016. Retrieved 1 March 2016.
  43. ^ Allison, George (18 July 2016). "British parliament votes to renew Trident". UK Defence Journal. UK Defence Journal. Retrieved 20 July 2016. The Successor class is the proposed replacement for the Vanguard class ballistic missile submarines. They will carry Trident D-5 missiles, the vehicle for delivering the UK's nuclear weapons.
  44. ^ a b Norton-Taylor, Richard; Scruton, Paul (16 July 2016). "Trident: what you need to know before the parliamentary vote". The Guardian. The Guardian. Retrieved 20 July 2016. Parliament will decide on Monday if the UK's nuclear submarine fleet will be replaced at an estimated cost of £41bn
  45. ^ "Bradford Trident Replacement Review Project". Brad.ac.uk. Retrieved 2010-07-30.
  46. ^ "YouGov Poll p.13" (PDF).
  47. ^ "Labour Party Conference HuffPost Poll: Less Than One In Five Voters Back Scrapping Trident".
  48. ^ "FactCheck: Does Britain want to scrap Trident?".
  49. ^ "Trident in UK Politics and Public Opinion p.22" (PDF).

Future Reading

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