2015 Estonian parliamentary election

2015 Estonian parliamentary election

1 March 2015
101 seats in the Riigikogu 51 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	64.23% (0.70pp)
First party Second party Third party   Leader Taavi Rõivas Edgar Savisaar Sven Mikser Party Reform Centre SDE Last election 28.56%, 33 seats 23.32%, 26 seats 17.09%, 19 seats Seats won 30 27 15 Seat change 3 1 4 Popular vote 158,970 142,458 87,189 Percentage 27.69% 24.81% 15.19% Swing 0.87pp 1.49pp 1.90pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Urmas Reinsalu Andres Herkel Mart Helme Party IRL Free EKRE Last election 20.52%, 23 seats – 2.12%, 0 seats Seats won 14 8 7 Seat change 9 New 7 Popular vote 78,699 49,882 46,772 Percentage 13.71% 8.69% 8.15% Swing 6.81pp New 6.03pp
Results by electoral district
Prime Minister before election Taavi Rõivas Reform Prime Minister after election Taavi Rõivas Reform

Parliamentary elections were held in Estonia on 1 March 2015. Advance voting was held between 19 and 25 February with a turnout of 33 percent. The Reform Party remained the largest in the Riigikogu, winning 30 of the 101 seats. Its leader, Taavi Rõivas, remained Prime Minister. The newly elected 101 members of the 13th Riigikogu assembled at Toompea Castle in Tallinn within ten days of the election. Two political newcomers, the Free Party and the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) crossed the threshold to enter the Riigikogu.

In January 2015, the National Electoral Committee announced that ten political parties and eleven individual candidates had registered to take part in the 2015 parliamentary election. Individuals from contesting political parties also participated in multiple organised debates in January and February 2015.

Following this election, Reform successfully negotiated with the Triple Alliance parties SDE and IRL afterwards, forming a second government headed by Rõivas in April. This coalition fell after a vote of confidence in the following year, bringing about the first government to not feature Reform since 1999 due to the collapse of the cordon sanitaire around the Centre Party after it elected a new leader, ending the long-lasting leadership of Edgar Savisaar, who had been perceived as too Russophilic.

Background

This was the first election since the resignation of Prime Minister Andrus Ansip, who relinquished his position after holding the office for almost nine years, a record-length tenure for an Estonian head of government. Following the resignation, a new coalition comprising the Estonian Reform Party and the Estonian Social Democrats were authorized to form a new government on 24 March 2014 with 34-year-old Taavi Rõivas as the new Prime Minister. This replaced the prior coalition of the Estonian Reform Party and the Pro Patria and Res Publica Union.

Electoral system

The 101 members of the Riigikogu were elected by proportional representation in twelve multi-member constituencies. The seats were allocated using a modified D'Hondt method. Parties had to pass a nationwide threshold of 5%, but if the number of votes cast for an individual candidate exceeded or equalled the simple quota (obtained by dividing the number of valid votes cast in the electoral district by the number of mandates in the district), they were elected.

Seats by electoral district

#	Electoral district	Seats
1	Haabersti, Põhja-Tallinn and Kristiine districts in Tallinn	9
2	Kesklinn, Lasnamäe and Pirita districts in Tallinn	12
3	Mustamäe and Nõmme districts in Tallinn	8
4	Harju (without Tallinn) and Rapla counties	14
5	Hiiu, Lääne and Saare counties	6
6	Lääne-Viru county	5
7	Ida-Viru county	7
8	Järva and Viljandi counties	7
9	Jõgeva and Tartu counties (without city of Tartu)	8
10	City of Tartu	8
11	Võru, Valga and Põlva counties	9
12	Pärnu county	8

Contesting parties

See also: List of political parties in Estonia

The Estonian National Electoral Committee announced that ten political parties and 11 individual candidates registered to take part in the 2015 parliamentary election. Their registration numbers and order were determined by a draw lot.

#	Name		Ideology	Political position	Leader	Total candidates	2011 result
							Votes (%)	Seats
1		People's Unity	Civic nationalism	Right-wing to far-right	Kristiina Ojuland	35	"ARMADURA Z29 HELMET ARMOR Z29" by OSCAR CREATIVO did not exist
2		Conservative People's Party	Right-wing populism	Right-wing to far-right	Mart Helme	125	2.1%	0 / 101
3		Reform Party	Classical liberalism	Centre-right	Taavi Rõivas	124	28.6%	33 / 101
4		IRL	Christian democracy	Centre-right	Urmas Reinsalu	125	20.5%	23 / 101
5		Greens	Green politics	Centre-left	Aleksander Laane	40	3.8%	0 / 101
6		United Left Party	Russian minority politics	Left-wing	Valev Kald	25	2.1%	0 / 101
7		Free Party	Conservatism	Centre-right	Andres Herkel	125	did not exist
8		Centre Party	Plurinationalism	Centre-left	Edgar Savisaar	125	23.3%	26 / 101
9		Social Democratic Party	Social democracy	Centre-left	Sven Mikser	125	17.1%	19 / 101
10		Independence Party	Estonian nationalism	Far-right	Vello Leito	12	0.5%	0 / 101
—		Individual candidates	—			11	did not exist

Opinion polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded.

Date	Polling firm	Ref	Kesk	IRL	SDE	Green	EKRE	EVA	Others	Lead
1 Mar 2015	Election results	27.7	24.8	13.7	15.2	0.9	8.1	8.7	0.9	2.9
23–26 Feb 2015	TNS Emor	26	22	16	19	-	6	10	1	4
Feb 2015	Turu-uuringute AS	22	27	16	18	-	6	6	5	5
11–18 Feb 2015	TNS Emor	23	22	14	20	2	9	9	1	1
Jan 2015	Turu-uuringute AS	22	26	15	16	-	6	6	9	4
Jan 2015	TNS Emor	25	22	15	18	2	5	8	4	3
Dec 2014	Turu-uuringute AS	26	27	15	19	3	4	1	4	1
Dec 2014	TNS Emor	32	23	16	21	2	2	1	3	9
Nov 2014	TNS Emor	29	22	18	22	4	2	2	1	7
Oct 2014	TNS Emor	27	27	16	19	3	3	2	3	0
Sep 2014	TNS Emor	27	26	18	23	3	2	Did not exist	1	1
Aug 2014	TNS Emor	29	25	15	26	1	4		0	4
Jul 2014	TNS Emor	31	24	16	24	1	3		1	7
Jun 2014	TNS Emor	31	24	14	25	2	2		2	7
May 2014	TNS Emor	29	24	15	27	3	2		2	2
Apr 2014	TNS Emor	25	22	19	28	1	3		2	3
26 March 2014	Taavi Rõivas' cabinet is sworn in
Mar 2014	TNS Emor	24	27	16	26	2	2	3	1
Feb 2014	TNS Emor	21	27	19	26	2	2	3	1
Jan 2014	TNS Emor	24	25	22	23	2	2	2	1
Dec 2013	TNS Emor	19	32	20	23	3	2	1	9
Nov 2013	TNS Emor	18	29	22	23	2	3	3	7
Oct 2013	TNS Emor	22	29	20	20	1	4	4	7
Sep 2013	TNS Emor	21	29	18	23	4	3	2	6
Aug 2013	TNS Emor	20	26	14	25	5	4	6	1
Jul 2013	TNS Emor	24	28	14	26	3	2	3	2
Jun 2013	TNS Emor	24	28	14	26	2	3	3	2
May 2013	TNS Emor	24	26	15	26	2	3	4	0
Apr 2013	TNS Emor	25	24	13	27	3	3	5	2
Mar 2013	TNS Emor	25	26	15	27	3	1	3	1
Feb 2013	TNS Emor	23	26	17	26	4	2	2	0
Jan 2013	TNS Emor	20	28	16	27	5	2	2	1
Dec 2012	TNS Emor	22	24	18	28	3	1	4	4
Nov 2012	TNS Emor	26	23	17	25	3	1	5	1
Oct 2012	TNS Emor	32	25	13	22	4	1	3	7
Sep 2012	TNS Emor	33	24	11	24	4	0	4	9
Aug 2012	TNS Emor	39	20	13	20	3	1	4	19
Jul 2012	TNS Emor	34	22	15	25	2	1	4	1
Jun 2012	TNS Emor	31	23	14	24	4	0	4	7
May 2012	TNS Emor	30	19	17	29	3	0	2	1
Apr 2012	TNS Emor	27	25	13	29	3	0	3	2
Mar 2012	TNS Emor	29	23	12	30	2	3	1	1
Feb 2012	TNS Emor	28	26	14	22	5	4	1	2
Jan 2012	TNS Emor	30	27	13	19	4	3	4	3
Dec 2011	TNS Emor	33	22	16	22	4	2	1	11
Nov 2011	TNS Emor	31	23	16	24	4	2	1	7
Oct 2011	TNS Emor	32	20	16	23	4	2	3	9
Sep 2011	TNS Emor	31	24	16	22	4	2	1	7
Aug 2011	TNS Emor	29	21	18	24	3	3	2	5
Jul 2011	TNS Emor	31	21	15	24	3	2	4	7
Jun 2011	TNS Emor	33	22	13	21	5	2	4	7
May 2011	TNS Emor	33	20	17	22	4	1	3	11
Apr 2011	TNS Emor	31	22	19	19	5	1	3	9
6 Mar 2011	Election results	28.6	23.3	20.5	17.1	3.8	2.1	4.6	5.3

Results

Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	Estonian Reform Party	158,970	27.69	30	–3
	Estonian Centre Party	142,458	24.81	27	+1
	Social Democratic Party	87,189	15.19	15	–4
	Pro Patria and Res Publica Union	78,699	13.71	14	–9
	Estonian Free Party	49,882	8.69	8	New
	Conservative People's Party	46,772	8.15	7	+7
	Estonian Greens	5,193	0.90	0	0
	Party of People's Unity	2,289	0.40	0	New
	Estonian Independence Party	1,047	0.18	0	0
	Estonian United Left Party	764	0.13	0	New
	Independents	887	0.15	0	0
Total		574,150	100.00	101	0
Valid votes		574,150	99.35
Invalid/blank votes		3,760	0.65
Total votes		577,910	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		899,793	64.23
Source: VVK

Aftermath

The Reform Party started coalition talks with the Social Democrats, Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL) and the Free Party. After nearly three weeks of negotiations, the Free Party left the coalition talks due to disagreements with the Reform Party and the IRL. The three remaining parties signed the coalition treaty on 8 April, and the cabinet took office on 9 April.

See also

• Members of the 13th Riigikogu

External links

• Estonian National Electoral Committee (in English)
• Poll ratings of political parties Archived 2015-09-24 at the Wayback Machine Eesti Erakondade Ajalugu (in Estonian)