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SpaceX Mars colonization program

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Musk standing at a wooden podium talking at the 2006 Mars Society Conference
Elon Musk at the 2006 Mars Society conference. Before founding SpaceX in 2001, Musk had expressed interest in Mars missions and briefly joined the Mars Society's board of directors.

SpaceX Mars colonization program (colloquially also referred to as Occupy Mars)[1] is a planned objective of the company SpaceX and particularly of its founder Elon Musk to colonize Mars. The main element of this ambition is the plan to establish a self-sustained large scale settlement and colony on Mars, claiming self-determination under direct democracy. The main motivation behind this is the belief that the colonization of Mars allows humanity to become multiplanetary and therefore secures the long-term survival of the human species in case of Earth being rid of human life.[2]

Colonization is to be achieved via the development and use of reusable and mass-produced super heavy-lift launch vehicles called Starship. Starship has been referred to as the "holy grail of rocketry" for extraplanetary colonization.[3]

These plans for colonization have garnered both praise and criticism, being supported as a result of public excitement for further human involvement beyond Earth and a desire to prefer human longevity, and being questioned for its existential perspective, execution, livability and legality.[3]

History

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Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX, has engaged in space advocacy relating to the colonization of Mars since at least 2001 at the Mars Society.[4]: 30–31 

As early as 2007, Elon Musk publicly stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars.[5]

Subsequently, SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars to ensure the long-term survival of the human species,[6] proposing since the 2000s and early 2010s different concepts for reaching Mars, including space tugs.


Red Dragon

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Artist's conception of two Red Dragon capsules on Mars, next to an outpost

Red Dragon was a 2011–2017 concept mission which would have used a modified Dragon 2 spacecraft as a low-cost Mars lander. If flown, it would have been launched on a Falcon Heavy, and land solely via the use of its SuperDraco retro-propulsion thrusters,[7] as parachutes would have required significant vehicle modifications.[8]

In 2011, SpaceX planned on proposing Red Dragon for the Discovery Mission #13, which would launch in 2022,[9][10][11] but it was not submitted. It was then proposed in 2014 as a low-cost way for NASA to achieve a Mars sample return by 2021. In the concept, the Red Dragon capsule would be equipped with the system needed to return samples gathered on Mars. NASA did not fund this concept.

In 2016, SpaceX planned on launching two Red Dragon vehicles[12] in 2018,[13][14] with NASA providing technical support instead of funding.[15] However, in 2017, Red Dragon was cancelled, in favor of the much larger Starship spacecraft.[16]

Starship

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SpaceX rendering of the Interplanetary Transport System approaching Mars

The company's current plan was first formally proposed at the 2016 International Astronautical Congress alongside a fully-reusable launch vehicle, the Interplanetary Transport System. Since then, the launch vehicle was renamed to "Starship", and has been in development since.

The development program reached multiple milestones in 2024 such as on its third test flight, it reached its desired trajectory for the first time and on its fourth flight test, both stages of the vehicle achieved controlled splashdown after launch for the first time.

On 7 September 2024, SpaceX announced that it would launch the first uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in two years, aligning with the next Earth-Mars transfer window. Elon Musk shared on the social media platform X that these missions would focus on testing the reliability of landing Starships intact on Mars. SpaceX plans to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during that transfer window.[17] If successful, the company plans to begin crewed flights to Mars in about four years.[18]

Composition

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Goals

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Further information: Space and survival and Life on Mars

As early as 2007, Elon Musk stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars.[5]

SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars to ensure the long-term survival of the human species by becoming multiplanetary.[6]

Launch system

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Further information: Space launch market competition
SpaceX super heavy-lift launch vehicle Starship assembly at its launch facility called Starbase on the Boca Chica (Texas) peninsula in the Rio Grande delta at the Gulf of Mexico

SpaceX has been setting up since 2014 a facility called Starbase and more recently a factory called Starfactory on the previously populated and wildlife area Boca Chica (Texas) peninsula in the Rio Grande delta at the Gulf of Mexico,[19] partly justified by SpaceX with its colonial perspective,[20] to launch and build an in development fully reusable super heavy-lift launch vehicle with the name Starship. Aiming with its reusability to drastically reduce launch costs and scaled construction and swift maintenance between flights,[21]: 2  this has been the basis for SpaceX to advance its Mars ambitions and when operational will allow it to provide the necessary transportation capabilities for its colonial goals. The reusability and its resulting reduced launch costs is expected to expand space access to more payloads and entities.[22]

Musk has stated that a Starship orbital launch could eventually cost $2 million, starting at $10 million within 2–3 years and dropping with time.[23] Starfactory is at the same time planned to produce at peak one Starship per day.[24]

The rocket consists of a Super Heavy first stage booster and a Starship second stage spacecraft,[25] powered by Raptor and Raptor Vacuum engines.[26] Both stages are made from stainless steel.[27]

Methane was chosen for the Raptor engines because it is relatively inexpensive, produces a low amount of soot as compared to other hydrocarbons,[28] and can be created on Mars from carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and hydrogen via the Sabatier reaction.[29] The engine family uses a new alloy for the main combustion chamber, allowing it to contain 300 bar (4,400 psi) of pressure, the highest of all current engines.[28] In the future, it may be mass-produced[28] and cost about $230,000 per engine or $100 per kilonewton.[30]

First missions

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Four astronauts looking at Mars
A scene of astronauts on Mars in the 2016 IAC presentation

Musk has made statements on several occasions about aspirational dates for Starship's earliest possible Mars landing,[31] including in 2022, that a crewed mission to Mars could take place no earlier than 2029.[32]

SpaceX's early missions to Mars are to involve small fleets of Starship spacecraft, funded by public–private partnerships.[33]

SpaceX has stated on several occasions aspirational plans to build a crewed base on Mars for an extended surface presence, which it hopes will grow into a self-sufficient colony.[34][35]

Before any people are transported to Mars, a number of cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[36] Equipment that would accompany the early groups would include "machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars' atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet's subsurface water ice" as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for crop growth.[37][38] As of September 2024, SpaceX plans to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during the next available Earth-Mars transfer window in 2026.[17]

Musk plans for the first crewed Mars missions to have approximately 12 people, with goals to "build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system" and establish a "rudimentary base." The company plans to process resources on Mars into fuel for return journeys,[39] and use similar technologies on Earth to create carbon-neutral propellant.[40]

Populating

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People at SpaceX wearing t-shirts with Occupy Mars written on them. Colonization will depend on many people settling with the harsh reality of Mars,[41] as pointed out by Elon Musk presenting SpaceX's colonial approach.[42]

The company hopes that once infrastructure is established on Mars and launch cost is reduced, populating can begin.

After the first few windows of crewed Mars landings, Musk has suggested that the number of people who are sent to Mars could be ramped up rapidly.

A successful colonization, meaning an established human presence on Mars growing over many decades, would ultimately involve many more economic actors than SpaceX.[43][44][45]

For reference, Musk's timeline for the colonization of Mars involves a crewed mission as early as 2029 and the development of a self-sustaining colony by 2050.[46]

Musk has stated in 2024 that in-situ resource utilization will be critical for establishing a self-sustaining colony, and that SpaceX plans to begin its efforts in advancing that field in "seven to nine years".[47] Current theories for in-situ resource utilization involve harvesting CO2 from the atmosphere and splitting into its raw components. This will involve using the O2 as well as CH4 for fuel production, and specifically the O2 in addition to Nitrogen (the second-most common gas in the Martian atmosphere) for breathing air within habitats.[48]

The program aims to send a million people to Mars, using a thousand Starships sent during a Mars launch window, which occurs approximately every 26 months.[49] Proposed journeys would require 80 to 150 days of transit time,[45] averaging approximately 115 days (for the nine synodic periods occurring between 2024 and 2041).[50]

Reception and feasibility

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Mars colonization has gained increased interest, both supportive and critical, since the technical achievements of SpaceX's and Elon Musk's rise of popularity in the 2010s, and more so into the 2020s.

Support

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"We bring you Mars", a rendering of a terraformed Mars next to the actual at SpaceX Headquarters

Some experts, like Robert Zubrin, support the concept due to the prevalence of water ice in the form of permafrost and glaciers on Mars, as well as other resources like carbon dioxide and nitrogen.[51] According to Zubrin, Starship's planned lower launch cost could make space research profitable, allowing major advancements in medicine, computers, material science,[4]: 47, 48  making mining profitable as well and space-based economy and colonization practical.[4]: 25, 26 

Others like Saul Zimet have expressed strong support for the concept, suggesting the possibility that the technological advancements that could be developed on Mars will come to benefit the whole of Earth.[52]

Criticism

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SpaceX's plan and colonization of Mars in general, has been criticized ethically and technically.

It has been argued that settling Mars may divert attention from solving problems on Earth that may also become problems on Mars,[53] with the reasoning that plans about Mars are always about the plans we have for Earth.[54] Jeff Bezos, founder of Blue Origin, SpaceX's competitor in commercial spaceflight, has rejected Mars colonization as a mere "Plan B", suggesting instead to preserve Earth through space development and moving all heavy industrial activity to space.[55] SpaceX's perspective has also been criticised as perpetuating the idea of colonialism.[56][1] It has been pointed out that the impact of human settlement on Mars, with regards to planetary protection, a crucial issue in space exploration, has not been comprehensively answered.[53]

It has been argued that there are physical and social consequences that need to be addressed with regards to long-term survival on the surface of Mars.[54] Former U.S. President Barack Obama has characterized Mars as more inhospitable than Earth would be "even after a nuclear war",[57] with others pointing out that Earth and underground shelters on Earth could still provide better conditions and protection for more people from apocalyptic scenarios.[53] Mars colonization has been called a 'dangerous delusion' by Lord Martin Rees, a British cosmologist/astrophysicist and the Astronomer Royal of the United Kingdom.[58] Musk has stated that staying on Mars is a life threatening endeavor that needs to be glorious to be worth it.[1] Exploration of Mars has also been argued to be better left to the already successful robotic missions, with crewed missions simply being too expensive, dangerous and boring.[53]

Regarding the execution of SpaceX's Mars program, the plans have been criticized as far-fetched because of uncertainties in its financing[6] and because it primarily addresses transportation to Mars and not the steps that follow. As of July 2019, SpaceX had not publicly detailed plans for the spacecraft's life-support systems, radiation protection, and in situ resource utilization, which are essential for space colonization.[59] George Dvorsky writing for Gizmodo characterized Musk's timeline for Martian colonization as "stupendously unreasonable" and "pure delusion".[60]

Law

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SpaceX intends to base the colony governing laws on self-determination,[61] and direct democracy (instead of representative democracy).[62] Some of this has been introduced through the terms and services agreement for individual users of SpaceX's Starlink platform, stating the following: "the parties recognize Mars as a free planet and that no Earth-based government has authority or sovereignty over Martian activities".[63]

In contrast to such claims, international space law, proclaiming space being "province of all mankind", holds that Mars is not free to be claimed, its legal status sharing some elements of the legal status of international waters.[64] Furthermore, the realization of direct-democracy by technocratic colonizers[62] and the legal accommodation of a diverse population is thought to be challenging.[65]

Trivia

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It has been pointed out that, coincidentally, rocket engineer Wernher von Braun envisioned colonies on Mars lead by a publicly elected leader titled the "Elon" in his book, Project Mars: A Technical Tale. [66]

References

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