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Ann Selzer

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Ann Selzer
Born1956 (age 67–68)
Rochester, Minnesota, U.S.
EducationUniversity of Kansas (BA)
University of Iowa (PhD)
OccupationPollster
Years active1987–2024 (election polling)
Websiteselzerco.com

J. Ann Selzer (born 1956) is a retired American political pollster who is the president of the Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm Selzer & Company, which she founded in 1996.[1][2] She was described as "the best pollster in politics" by Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight, which also gives Selzer & Company a rare A+ grade for accuracy.[2][3]

Her polls of Iowa voters had a reputation for being highly accurate, based on their performance in elections from 2008 through 2020. However, Selzer's polls incorrectly predicted Democratic victories in Iowa for the presidential elections of 2004 and 2024, with the latter missing by sixteen points in favor of Republican Donald Trump. She announced her retirement from political polling shortly after the 2024 election, announcing that she will focus on future endeavors outside of the business.

Early life and education

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Selzer was born in Rochester, Minnesota, in 1956, the middle child in a family of five.[4] She was raised in Topeka, Kansas. Selzer attended the University of Kansas, initially as a pre-med student, but eventually lost interest in medicine.[3] She graduated with a Bachelor of Arts in Speech and Dramatics Arts in 1978.[5] She then earned a Ph.D. in Communication Theory and Research from the University of Iowa in 1984.[6]

Career

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After graduate school, Selzer worked for The Des Moines Register. She established her own polling firm, Selzer & Company, in 1996. She worked as the pollster for the Des Moines Register for many years, and oversaw nearly all of the Register's Iowa Polls from 1987 to 2024, according to FiveThirtyEight. She has also done polling work for numerous other news organizations, including the Detroit Free Press and the Indianapolis Star.[7][3] Recently, Selzer has partnered with Grinnell College as a part of the Grinnell College National Poll program.[8]

Polling methodology

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Selzer's polls utilize random sampling through random digit dialing in a dual-frame design with both landlines and cell phones. The sampling frame for her political polls typically consist of lists of registered voters.[9][3] Likely voters for relevant elections being polled are determined through self-reported responses on intention to vote or participate in caucuses. Selzer states that she uses minimal weighting in her polling, adjusting for demographic variables such as age, race, and sex with U.S. census data and declining to adjust for variables like recalled voting history.[10][11][3]

Results

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In the 2004 presidential election, Selzer's polling inaccurately predicted that John Kerry would win Iowa against George W. Bush. Selzer was the only pollster to correctly predict Barack Obama's comfortable victory in the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses,[7] and her poll of the 2014 United States Senate election in Iowa also mirrored the actual result exceptionally closely.[12]

Selzer & Co. conducted their final 2016 presidential poll in Iowa in early November, showing Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by seven percentage points.[13] Most other polls at the time showed a much closer race.[14] Trump won Iowa by 9.4 percentage points. Selzer's final Iowa poll ahead of the 2020 presidential election showed Trump ahead of Joe Biden by seven percentage points, and Republican Senator Joni Ernst ahead of Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield by four percentage points.[15] This was the only poll conducted in fall 2020 to show Trump ahead by more than two points, while Ernst's race was considered a toss-up.[16][17] Trump won Iowa by 8.2 percentage points, while Ernst was re-elected by 6.6 points. In a post-election interview with Bloomberg, Selzer suggested that her polls' consistently high performance may be related to making fewer assumptions about the electorate, saying "I assumed nothing. My data told me."[18]

2024 presidential election

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Prior to the 2024 United States presidential election, Selzer & Co. released their final Iowa poll that had Kamala Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% in the state, markedly different from other polls that showed Trump with a significant lead.[19] The poll was leaked ahead of its embargo, with Governor J. B. Pritzker of Illinois publicly discussing its results less than an hour before its scheduled release.[20] Trump criticized the accuracy of the poll. Selzer responded by saying the poll used the same methodology as in 2016 and 2020, and that, "It would not be in my best interest, or that of my clients—The Des Moines Register and Mediacom—to conjure fake numbers."[21]

Contrary to the poll, Trump won Iowa by a 13-point margin; the error of roughly 16 percentage points was by far the largest of any of Selzer's polls.[22] She pledged to review the data to see if she could explain the significant polling error.[23][24][25] FiveThirtyEight hypothesized that Selzer's methodology, which declines to weight for educational attainment and partisan identification, may have led to the divergent result.[26] On November 17, 2024, Selzer announced her retirement from electoral polling, saying she had planned to do so before the 2024 election.[22] Trump publicly accused her of "possible election fraud" and called for "an investigation" of her.[27]

Final pre-election Selzer & Company polls

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Election Democratic
candidate		 Poll
D %		 Actual
D %		 Republican
candidate		 Poll
R %		 Actual
R %		 Poll
margin[a]		 Actual
margin[b]		 Error Ref
1996 IA president Bill Clinton 46 50.3 Bob Dole 35 40.0 D+11 D+10.4 D+0.6 [28]
1996 IA U.S. Senate Tom Harkin 46 51.8 Jim Lightfoot 38 46.7 D+8 D+5.1 D+2.9 [28]
1998 IA governor Tom Vilsack 43 52.3 Jim Lightfoot 47 46.5 R+4 D+5.8 R+9.8 [29]
2000 IA president Al Gore 44 48.6 George W. Bush 42 48.3 D+2 D+0.3 D+1.7 [29]
2002 IA U.S. Senate Tom Harkin 50 54.2 Greg Ganske 41 43.8 D+9 D+10.4 R+1.4 [29]
2002 IA governor Tom Vilsack 52 52.7 Doug Gross 40 44.6 D+12 D+8.2 D+3.8 [29]
2004 IA president John Kerry 48 49.3 George W. Bush 45 49.9 D+3 R+0.7 D+3.7 [29][30]
2004 IN president John Kerry 37 39.3 George W. Bush 57 60.0 R+20 R+20.7 D+0.7 [29]
2004 IN governor Joseph Kernan 42 45.5 Mitch Daniels 48 53.2 R+6 R+7.7 D+1.7 [29]
2006 IA governor Chet Culver 52 54.1 Jim Nussle 43 44.4 D+9 D+9.7 R+0.7 [29]
2006 IA-01 U.S. House Bruce Braley 56 55.1 Mike Whalen 35 43.3 D+21 D+11.9 D+9.2 [29]
2006 IN-07 U.S. House Julia Carson 42 53.8 Eric Dickerson 45 46.2 R+3 D+7.5 R+10.5 [29]
2006 MI U.S. Senate Debbie Stabenow 53 56.9 Mike Bouchard 34 41.3 D+19 D+15.7 D+3.4 [29]
2006 MI governor Jennifer Granholm 54 56.4 Dick DeVos 41 42.3 D+13 D+14.1 R+1.1 [29]
2008 IA president Barack Obama 54 54.2 John McCain 37 44.6 D+17 D+9.6 D+7.4 [29][30]
2008 IA U.S. Senate Tom Harkin 57 62.7 Christopher Reed 31 37.3 D+26 D+25.4 D+0.6 [29]
2008 IN president Barack Obama 46 50.0 John McCain 45 48.9 D+1.0 D+1.0 D+0.0 [29]
2008 IN governor Jill Long Thompson 36 40.0 Mitch Daniels 54 57.8 R+18 R+17.8 R+0.2 [29]
2008 MI president Barack Obama 53 57.4 John McCain 37 41.0 D+16 D+16.5 R+0.5 [29][31]
2008 MI U.S. Senate Carl Levin 53 62.7 Jack Hoogendyk 32 33.9 D+21 D+28.8 R+7.8 [29]
2010 IA U.S. Senate Roxanne Conlin 30 33.3 Chuck Grassley 61 64.4 R+31 R+31.1 D+0.1 [29][32]
2010 IA governor Chet Culver 38 43.3 Terry Branstad 50 52.9 R+12 R+9.6 R+2.4 [29][32]
2012 IA president Barack Obama 47 52.2 Mitt Romney 42 46.4 D+5 D+5.8 R+0.8 [29][30]
2014 IA U.S. Senate Bruce Braley 44 43.8 Joni Ernst 51 52.2 R+7 R+8.4 D+1.4 [29][33]
2014 IA governor Jack Hatch 35 37.3 Terry Branstad 59 59.1 R+24 R+21.7 R+2.3 [29][34]
2016 U.S. president Hillary Clinton 46 48.5 Donald Trump 43 46.4 D+3 D+2.1 D+0.9 [35]
2016 FL president Hillary Clinton 45 47.8 Donald Trump 46 49.0 R+1 R+1.2 D+0.2 [36]
2016 FL U.S. Senate Patrick Murphy 41 44.3 Marco Rubio 51 52.0 R+10 R+7.7 R+2.3 [29][36]
2016 IA president Hillary Clinton 39 42.2 Donald Trump 46 51.8 R+7 R+9.5 D+2.5 [29][37]
2016 IA U.S. Senate Patty Judge 33 35.7 Chuck Grassley 56 60.2 R+23 R+24.5 D+1.5 [29][38]
2018 IA governor Fred Hubbell 46 47.5 Kim Reynolds 44 50.3 D+2 R+2.7 D+4.7 [29][39]
2020 IA president Joe Biden 41 45.0 Donald Trump 48 53.2 R+7 R+8.2 D+1.2 [29][40]
2020 IA U.S. Senate Theresa Greenfield 42 45.2 Joni Ernst 46 51.8 R+4 R+6.6 D+2.6 [29][41]
2022 IA U.S. Senate Michael Franken 41 43.9 Chuck Grassley 53 56.1 R+12 R+12.2 D+0.2 [29][42]
2022 IA governor Deidre DeJear 37 39.6 Kim Reynolds 54 58.1 R+17 R+18.5 D+1.5 [29][43]
2024 IA president Kamala Harris 47 42.7 Donald Trump 44 55.9 D+3 R+13.2 D+16.2 [44]

Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated after rounding
  2. ^ Calculated after rounding; excludes invalid write-in votes

References

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  1. ^ Whitesides, John (June 8, 2019). "Biden Still Leads in 2020 Iowa Poll, Three Others Fight for Second". Reuters. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 9, 2019.
  2. ^ a b "Grinnell College National Poll Leadership". Grinnell College. Retrieved June 9, 2019.
  3. ^ a b c d e Malone, Clare (January 27, 2016). "Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 9, 2019.
  4. ^ Winkler, Elizabeth (January 4, 2020). "J. Ann Selzer: The Pollster to Follow as Iowa Looms". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved January 4, 2020.
  5. ^ "Alumni Q&A with J. Ann Selzer, political pollster – KU College Stories". Retrieved February 3, 2020.
  6. ^ Selzer, J. Ann (1984). The gender gap: Social evolution and social revolution (Ph.D. thesis). University of Iowa.
  7. ^ a b Ball, Molly (November 25, 2011). "Friday Interview: The Polling Guru of the Iowa Caucuses". The Atlantic. Retrieved June 9, 2019.
  8. ^ "Grinnell College National Poll | Grinnell College". www.grinnell.edu. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  9. ^ "What To Make of the Selzer Poll?". RealClearPolling. November 4, 2024.
  10. ^ "Data and Methodology". Grinnell.
  11. ^ "Interview: Ann Selzer stands by sampling method for primary polls". Bleeding Heartland. June 22, 2018.
  12. ^ Cohn, Nate (January 30, 2016). "Why This Is the Iowa Poll That Everyone Was Waiting For". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 9, 2019.
  13. ^ Noble, Jason (November 5, 2016). "Iowa Poll: Trump opens 7-point lead over Clinton". Des Moines Register. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
  14. ^ "2016 Presidential forecast summary for Iowa". FiveThirtyEight. June 29, 2016. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
  15. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (October 31, 2020). "Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades". Des Moines Register. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
  16. ^ Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil (June 28, 2018). "Iowa President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
  17. ^ Silver, Nate (August 12, 2020). "2020 Senate Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
  18. ^ "The Big Question: How Do You Make Polls More Accurate?". Bloomberg.com. November 15, 2020. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
  19. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2024). "Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
  20. ^ "Gannett probes possible leak of bombshell Iowa poll". Semafor. November 10, 2024.
  21. ^ Reporter, Jasmine Laws Live News (November 3, 2024). "Ann Selzer Responds to Iowa Poll Backlash". Newsweek. Retrieved November 3, 2024.
  22. ^ a b Reilly, Liam (November 17, 2024). "Top pollster Ann Selzer to retire after bombshell Iowa poll ended in huge miss". CNN. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  23. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 5, 2024). "Pollster J. Ann Selzer: 'I'll be reviewing data' after Iowa Poll misses big Trump win". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  24. ^ Samuels, Brett (November 6, 2024). "Donald Trump wins Iowa in 2024 presidential election". The Hill. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  25. ^ Fink, Jenni (November 6, 2024). "Donald Trump To Win Iowa, Networks Project". Newsweek. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  26. ^ "2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump". FiveThirtyEight. November 8, 2024.
  27. ^ Morrison, Dan (November 18, 2024). "Trump demands investigation of pollster who showed Iowa lead for Kamala Harris". USA TODAY.
  28. ^ a b Glover, Mike (November 4, 1996). "Voter turnout key as Iowa races tighten" (PDF). The Daily Iowan. Associated Press.
  29. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae "FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings Raw Polls File". GitHub. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  30. ^ a b c Smith, Brian (November 2, 2024). "How do past Iowa Poll results compare with presidential election results in Iowa?". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  31. ^ "Poll: Obama up by 16 points in Michigan". San Diego Union-Tribune. November 2, 2008. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  32. ^ a b "Register poll shows voters split over Supreme Court judges". Ottumwa Courier. Associated Press. November 2, 2010. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  33. ^ Jacobs, Jennifer (November 1, 2014). "Iowa Poll: Ernst takes 7-point lead". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  34. ^ Noble, Jason (November 1, 2014). "Iowa Poll: Branstad widens lead over Hatch". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  35. ^ "Bloomberg Politics National Poll". Bloomberg. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  36. ^ a b "Bloomberg Politics Florida Poll". Bloomberg. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  37. ^ Noble, Jason (November 5, 2016). "Iowa Poll: Trump opens 7-point lead over Clinton". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  38. ^ Petroski, William (November 5, 2016). "Iowa Poll: Grassley maintains double-digit lead over Judge". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  39. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 3, 2018). "Just days before election, Iowa Poll shows Fred Hubbell with 2-point lead over Kim Reynolds". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  40. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (October 31, 2020). "Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  41. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (October 31, 2020). "Iowa Poll: Republican Joni Ernst pulls ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield in closing days of U.S. Senate race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  42. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne; Gruber-Miller, Stephen (November 5, 2022). "Iowa Poll: Chuck Grassley widens lead over Mike Franken in US Senate race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  43. ^ Richardson, Ian (November 5, 2022). "Iowa Poll: Gov. Kim Reynolds has a 17-point lead over Deidre DeJear in governor's race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  44. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2024). "Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.

Further reading

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