2022 Ohio gubernatorial election
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Turnout | 52.32%[1] 5.2pp | |||||||||||||||||||
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DeWine: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Whaley: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Ohio |
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The 2022 Ohio gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Ohio. Incumbent Republican governor Mike DeWine won re-election to a second term in a landslide, defeating Democratic nominee Nan Whaley, the former mayor of Dayton, with 62.4% of the vote.[2] DeWine's 25-point victory marked the continuation of a trend in which every incumbent Republican governor of Ohio since 1994 has won re-election by a double-digit margin.
This was the first time since 1994 in which Trumbull and Mahoning counties have gone to the Republican candidate with over 60% of the vote. Hamilton County also voted Republican in a statewide election for the first time since Ohio's 2016 United States Senate election, which incumbent Republican Rob Portman also won by over 20 points and nearly 60% of the vote.
Republican primary
[edit]Incumbent governor Mike DeWine faced backlash from Republicans due to having implemented strict COVID-19 restrictions, such as a statewide stay at home order and mask mandates.[3][4][5] Due to this, on April 30, 2021, farmer Joe Blystone became the first candidate to announce a primary challenge to DeWine. On June 9, former U.S. representative Jim Renacci also announced a run, later being followed up by former state representative Ron Hood.[6][7][8] As a result, DeWine became the first incumbent Ohio governor to face a primary challenger since Jim Rhodes in 1978 and the first to have multiple challengers since Michael Disalle in 1962. Initial polling showed Renacci in the lead; however, his lead soon evaporated, as DeWine attempted to appeal to conservatives angry with his COVID-19 response by attacking President Joe Biden's policies and signing constitutional carry into law, allowing permitless carry of firearms.[9][10][11] Incumbent governors rarely ever lose their primaries. Ultimately, DeWine prevailed in the primary election on May 3; however, he only won with a plurality of the vote, which suggests that he could have lost had his opponents not split the vote.[12]
Candidates
[edit]Nominated
[edit]- Mike DeWine, incumbent governor of Ohio (2019–present), 50th attorney general of Ohio (2011–2019), former U.S. senator from Ohio (1995–2007), 59th lieutenant governor of Ohio, and former U.S. representative for Ohio's 7th congressional district (1983–1991)[13][14][15]
- Running mate: Jon Husted, incumbent lieutenant governor of Ohio (2019–present)[15]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Joe Blystone, farmer[16][17]
- Ron Hood, former state representative from the 78th District (2013–2020), 91st District (2005–2006), 57th District (1995–2000), and candidate for OH-15 in 2021[20][21]
- Running mate: Candice Keller, former state representative from the 53rd District (2016–2020)[20]
- Jim Renacci, former U.S. representative for Ohio's 16th congressional district (2011–2019) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018[22][23]
- Running mate: Joe Knopp, Christian film producer[24]
Declined
[edit]- Warren Davidson, U.S. representative for Ohio's 8th congressional district (2016–present) (ran for re-election)[25][26]
- Jon Husted, Lieutenant Governor of Ohio (2019–present) (ran for re-election)[27]
- Jim Jordan, U.S. representative for Ohio's 4th congressional district (2007–present) (ran for re-election)[28][29]
- Josh Mandel, former Ohio state treasurer (2011–2019), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (ran for U.S. Senate)[30]
- Dave Yost, Attorney General of Ohio (2019–present) and former Ohio state auditor (2011–2019) (ran for re-election)[31]
Endorsements
[edit]Local officials
- Dennis Clough, Mayor of Westlake[32]
- Kevin Corcoran, Mayor of North Ridgeville[32]
- Tom Perciak, Mayor of Strongsville[32]
Individuals
- Chuck Calvert, former chair of the Medina County Republican Party and former state representative from the 69th district (1999–2006)[32]
- Bryan C. Williams, vice chair of the Ohio Republican Party, chair of the Summit County Republican Party, former acting chair of the Ohio Republican Party, and former state representative from the 41st district (1997–2004)[33]
Labor unions
Organizations
- Columbiana County Republican Party[35]
- Franklin County Republican Party[36]
- Ohio Republican Party[37]
- Ohio Restaurant Association[38]
- Ohio Right to Life[35]
- Pike County Republican Party[39]
State representatives
- John Becker, former state representative from the 65th district (2013–2020)[40]
- Jennifer Gross, state representative from the 52nd district (2021–present)[40]
- Ron Maag, former state representative from the 62nd district (2013–2016) and the 35th district (2009–2013)[40]
- Seth Morgan, former state representative from the 36th district (2009–2011)[41]
- Nino Vitale, state representative from the 85th district (2015–present)[41]
- Scott Wiggam, state representative from the 1st district (2017–present)[40]
Local officials
Individuals
- Brad Parscale, campaign manager for Donald J. Trump's 2020 presidential campaign[42]
Organizations
- Butler County Republican Party[43]
- Clermont County Republican Party[36]
- Cuyahoga County Republican Party[44]
- Geauga County Conservative Club[45]
- Lorain County Tea Party[45]
- Ohio Value Voters[46]
- Ohio Women for Trump[41]
- Stand for Health Freedom[47]
- Strongsville Republican Party[48]
Organizations
- Hamilton County Republican Party[36]
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Blystone |
Mike DeWine |
Jim Renacci |
Other [a] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics[49] | February 25 – May 1, 2022 | May 2, 2022 | 16.5% | 48.0% | 31.0% | 4.5% | DeWine +17.0 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Blystone |
Mike DeWine |
Ron Hood |
Jim Renacci |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R)[50] | April 29 – May 1, 2022 | 1,081 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 19% | 47% | 2% | 27% | – | 5% |
Emerson College[51] | April 28–29, 2022 | 885 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 12% | 45% | 2% | 30% | – | 12% |
Fox News[52] | April 20–24, 2022 | 906 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 19% | 43% | – | 24% | 1% | 12% |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[53] | April 13–14, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 24% | 40% | 2% | 26% | – | 10% |
University of Akron[54] | February 17 – March 15, 2022 | – (LV) | – | – | 51% | – | 23% | 10% | 17% |
Fox News[55] | March 2–6, 2022 | 918 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 21% | 50% | – | 18% | <1% | 10% |
Emerson College[56] | February 25–26, 2022 | 410 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 20% | 34% | 0% | 9% | – | 36% |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[57] | February 1–4, 2022 | 1,066 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 20% | 41% | – | 23% | – | 16% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[58][A] | January 25–26, 2022 | 626 (LV) | ± 3.9% | – | 38% | – | 33% | – | 29% |
Fabrizio Lee (R)[59][B] | January 11–13, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | – | 38% | – | 46% | – | 16% |
Fabrizio Lee (R)[60][B] | May 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 34% | – | 42% | – | 24% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican |
|
519,594 | 48.11% | |
Republican |
|
302,494 | 28.01% | |
Republican |
|
235,584 | 21.81% | |
Republican | 22,411 | 2.07% | ||
Total votes | 1,080,083 | 100.0% |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominated
[edit]- Nan Whaley, former mayor of Dayton (2014–2022) and candidate in 2018[63]
- Running mate: Cheryl Stephens, Cuyahoga County Council Vice President[64]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- John Cranley, former mayor of Cincinnati (2013–2022) and nominee for OH-01 in 2000 and 2006[65]
- Running mate: Teresa Fedor, state senator from Ohio's 11th senatorial district[64]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Ted Williams, voice-over artist[66]
Declined
[edit]- Tim Ryan, U.S. representative for Ohio's 13th congressional district (2003–2023) and candidate for U.S. President in 2020[67][68] (ran for U.S. Senate)[69]
- Emilia Sykes, Minority Leader of the Ohio House of Representatives (2019–2021) and state representative (2015–2023)[70] (ran for and was elected to the U.S. House in Ohio's 13th congressional district)[70]
Endorsements
[edit]State senators
- Eric Kearney, former state senator from the 9th district (2005–2014)[71]
- Rhine McLin, former state senator from the 5th district (1995–2001); former mayor of Dayton (2002–2010)[71]
- Ray Miller, former state senator from the 15th district (2003–2010)[71]
- Cecil Thomas, state senator from the 9th district (2015–present)[71]
State representatives
- Nick Celebrezze, former state representative from the 15th district (2012–2019)[71]
- Sedrick Denson, state representative from the 33rd district (2019–present)[71]
- Dan Dodd, former state representative from the 91st district (2007–2010)[71]
- Jessica Miranda, state representative from the 28th district (2019–present)[71]
- Michael O'Brien, state representative from the 64th district (2015–present)[71]
Individuals
- Gloria Steinem, political activist and feminist icon[64]
Newspapers
- The Toledo Blade[72]
- The Plain Dealer, Cleveland[73]
U.S. senators
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator from Ohio (2007–present), former U.S. representative for OH-13 (1993–2007)[74]
State senators
- Nickie Antonio, state senator from the 23rd district (2019–present)[75]
- Tina Maharath, state senator from the 3rd district (2019–present)[75]
State representatives
- Willis Blackshear Jr., state representative from the 39th district (2021–present)[75]
- Kristin Boggs, state representative from the 18th district (2016–present)[75]
- Janine Boyd, state representative from the 9th district (2015–present)[75]
- Juanita Brent, state representative from the 12th district (2019–present)[75]
- Rich Brown, state representative from the 20th district (2017–present)[75]
- Randi Clites, former state representative from the 75th district (2019–2020)[75]
- Paula Hicks-Hudson, state representative from the 44th district (2019–present) and former mayor of Toledo (2015–2018)[75]
- David J. Leland, state representative from the 22nd district (1983–1984, 2015–present)[75]
- Michele Lepore-Hagan, state representative for Ohio's 58th district (2015–present)[75]
- Mary Lightbody, state representative from the 19th district (2019–present)[75]
- Beth Liston, state representative from the 21st district (2019–present)[75]
- Adam Miller, state representative from the 17th district (2017–present)[75]
- Joe Miller, state representative from the 56th district (2019–present)[75]
- Dan Ramos, former state representative from the 56th district (2011–present)[75]
- Phil Robinson, state representative from the 6th district (2019–present)[75]
- Allison Russo, state representative from the 24th district (2019–present) and Minority Leader of the Ohio House of Representatives (2022–present)[75]
- Michael Sheehy, state representative from the 46th district (2013–present)[75]
- Michael J. Skindell, state representative from the 13th district (2019–present)[75]
- Kent Smith, state representative from the 8th district (2015–present)[75]
- Monique Smith, state representative from the 16th district (2021–present)[75]
- Lisa Sobecki, state representative from the 45th district (2019–present)[75]
- Bride Rose Sweeney, state representative from the 14th district (2018–present)[75]
- Casey Weinstein, state representative from the 37th district (2019–present)[75]
Local officials
- Andrew Ginther, Mayor of Columbus[76]
- Dan Horrigan, Mayor of Akron[76]
- Frank G. Jackson, former mayor of Cleveland[76]
- Wade Kapszukiewicz, Mayor of Toledo[76]
Individuals
- Joe Rugola, Executive Director of the Ohio Association of Public School Employees (OAPSE)[77]
Unions
- Industrial Division of the Communication Workers of America[78]
- Ohio Association of Public School Employees[77]
Organizations
- 314 Action[79]
- EMILY's List[80]
- The Matriots PAC[81]
Organizations
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
John Cranley |
Nan Whaley |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Akron[54] | February 17 – March 15, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 18% | 23% | 6% | 54% |
Emerson College[56] | February 25–26, 2022 | 313 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 16% | 16% | – | 69% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[83][C] | January 17–19, 2022 | 670 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 20% | 33% | – | 48% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic |
|
331,014 | 65.01% | |
Democratic | 178,132 | 34.99% | ||
Total votes | 509,146 | 100.0% |
Independents
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Timothy Grady (write-in)[84]
- Running mate: Dayna Bickley
- Craig Patton (write-in)[84]
- Running mate: Collin Cook
- Renea Turner (write-in)[84]
- Running mate: Adina Pelletier
- Marshall Usher (write-in)[84]
- Running mate: Shannon Walker
Disqualified
[edit]- F. Patrick Cunnane
- Running mate: Mary Cunnane
- Niel Petersen, pastor from Huber Heights[85]
- Running mate: Michael V Stewart
Endorsements
[edit]Activists
- Vermin Supreme, former Libertarian National Committee member and perennial candidate from Massachusetts (2020–2022)[86]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[87] | Solid R | September 29, 2022 |
Inside Elections[88] | Solid R | July 22, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[89] | Safe R | June 2, 2022 |
Politico[90] | Solid R | November 3, 2022 |
RCP[91] | Safe R | October 20, 2022 |
Fox News[92] | Likely R | May 12, 2022 |
538[93] | Solid R | July 31, 2022 |
Elections Daily[94] | Safe R | November 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
[edit]U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[95]
State officials
- Keith Faber, Auditor of Ohio (2019–present)[96]
- Frank LaRose, Secretary of State of Ohio (2019–present)[96]
- Robert Sprague, Treasurer of Ohio (2019–present)[96]
- Dave Yost, Attorney General of Ohio (2019–present)[96]
Local officials
- Dennis Clough, Mayor of Westlake[32]
- Kevin Corcoran, Mayor of North Ridgeville[32]
- Tom Perciak, Mayor of Strongsville[32]
State senators
- Frank Hoagland, state senator from the 30th district (2017–2023)[97]
Individuals
- Chuck Calvert, former chair of the Medina County Republican Party and former state representative from the 69th district (1999–2006)[32]
- JD Vance, author and Republican nominee in the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio[96]
- Bryan C. Williams, vice chair of the Ohio Republican Party, chair of the Summit County Republican Party, former acting chair of the Ohio Republican Party, and former state representative from the 41st district (1997–2004)[33]
Newspapers
- The Marietta Times[98] (Local newspaper from the city of Marietta, Ohio)
- The Toledo Blade[99]
Labor unions
Organizations
- Columbiana County Republican Party[35]
- Franklin County Republican Party[36]
- Ohio Fraternal Order of Police[100]
- Ohio Republican Party[37]
- Ohio Restaurant Association[38]
- Ohio Right to Life[35]
- Pike County Republican Party[39]
- Cleveland Building and Construction Trades Council[101]
U.S. senators
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator from Ohio (2007–present), former U.S. representative for OH-13 (1993–2007)[74]
State senators
- Nickie Antonio, state senator from the 23rd district (2019–present)[75]
- Tina Maharath, state senator from the 3rd district (2019–present)[75]
State representatives
- Willis Blackshear Jr., state representative from the 39th district (2021–present)[75]
- Kristin Boggs, state representative from the 18th district (2016–present)[75]
- Janine Boyd, state representative from the 9th district (2015–present)[75]
- Juanita Brent, state representative from the 12th district (2019–present)[75]
- Rich Brown, state representative from the 20th district (2017–present)[75]
- Randi Clites, former state representative from the 75th district (2019–2020)[75]
- Paula Hicks-Hudson, state representative from the 44th district (2019–present) and former mayor of Toledo (2015–2018)[75]
- David J. Leland, state representative from the 22nd district (1983–1984, 2015–present)[75]
- Michele Lepore-Hagan, state representative for Ohio's 58th district (2015–present)[75]
- Mary Lightbody, state representative from the 19th district (2019–present)[75]
- Beth Liston, state representative from the 21st district (2019–present)[75]
- Adam Miller, state representative from the 17th district (2017–present)[75]
- Joe Miller, state representative from the 56th district (2019–present)[75]
- Dan Ramos, former state representative from the 56th district (2011–present)[75]
- Phil Robinson, state representative from the 6th district (2019–present)[75]
- Allison Russo, state representative from the 24th district (2019–present) and Minority Leader of the Ohio House of Representatives (2022–present)[75]
- Michael Sheehy, state representative from the 46th district (2013–present)[75]
- Michael J. Skindell, state representative from the 13th district (2019–present)[75]
- Kent Smith, state representative from the 8th district (2015–present)[75]
- Monique Smith, state representative from the 16th district (2021–present)[75]
- Lisa Sobecki, state representative from the 45th district (2019–present)[75]
- Bride Rose Sweeney, state representative from the 14th district (2018–present)[75]
- Casey Weinstein, state representative from the 37th district (2019–present)[75]
Local officials
- Andrew Ginther, Mayor of Columbus[76]
- Dan Horrigan, Mayor of Akron[76]
- Frank G. Jackson, Mayor of Cleveland[76]
- Wade Kapszukiewicz, Mayor of Toledo[76]
Individuals
- Joe Rugola, Executive Director of the Ohio Association of Public School Employees (OAPSE)[77]
Newspapers
Unions
- Industrial Division of the Communication Workers of America[78]
- National Education Association[103]
- Ohio Association of Public School Employees[77]
Organizations
- 314 Action[79]
- EMILY's List[80]
- The Matriots PAC[81]
- Ohio Democrats for Change
Polling
[edit]Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Mike DeWine (R) |
Nan Whaley (D) |
Undecided [c] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics[104] | October 7–22, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | 55.8% | 37.5% | 6.7% | DeWine +18.3 |
FiveThirtyEight[105] | August 16 – October 25, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | 55.5% | 36.1% | 8.4% | DeWine +19.3 |
Average | 55.6% | 36.8% | 7.6% | DeWine +18.8 |
Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mike DeWine (R) |
Nan Whaley (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Civiqs[106] | November 4–7, 2022 | 716 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 39% | 6%[d] | 2% |
Research Co.[107] | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 57% | 37% | – | 6% |
Targoz Market Research[108] | November 2–6, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 62% | 32% | 5%[e] | – |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[109] | November 3–5, 2022 | 1,123 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 59% | 34% | – | 8% |
Data for Progress (D)[110] | November 2–5, 2022 | 1,413 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 62% | 38% | – | – |
Cygnal (R)[111] | November 1–3, 2022 | 1,498 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 56% | 37% | – | 7% |
Remington Research Group (R)[112] | November 1–2, 2022 | 1,125 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 58% | 35% | – | 7% |
Emerson College[113] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 34% | 5%[f] | 7% |
Cygnal (R)[114] | October 29 – November 1, 2022 | 1,520 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 56% | 36% | – | 8% |
Cygnal (R)[115] | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,510 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 56% | 36% | – | 9% |
Cygnal (R)[116] | October 24–28, 2022 | 1,776 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 56% | 35% | – | 9% |
Cygnal (R)[117] | October 22–26, 2022 | 1,817 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 56% | 35% | – | 9% |
Cygnal (R)[118] | October 20–24, 2022 | 1,886 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 55% | 37% | – | 8% |
Baldwin Wallace University[119] | October 20–23, 2022 | 1,068 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 57% | 40% | – | 3% |
Cygnal (R)[120] | October 18–22, 2022 | 1,547 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 55% | 37% | – | 8% |
Marist College[121] | October 17–20, 2022 | 1,141 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 53% | 40% | 1%[g] | 6% |
942 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 54% | 41% | 1%[h] | 3% | ||
Cygnal (R)[122] | October 16–20, 2022 | 1,540 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 55% | 37% | – | 8% |
Siena College[123] | October 14–19, 2022 | 644 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 58% | 34% | 3%[i] | 6% |
Cygnal (R)[124] | October 14–18, 2022 | 1,438 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 56% | 35% | – | 9% |
Ohio Northern University/Lucid[125] | October 11–15, 2022 | 668 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 60% | 29% | 1%[j] | 10% |
Suffolk University[126] | October 11–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 56% | 38% | 1%[k] | 5% |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[127] | October 10–12, 2022 | 1,081 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 55% | 37% | – | 8% |
Data for Progress (D)[128] | October 7–12, 2022 | 1,016 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 57% | 38% | – | 5% |
Cygnal (R)[129][D] | October 6–8, 2022 | 640 (LV) | – | 57% | 35% | – | 8% |
Emerson College[130] | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 36% | 6%[l] | 8% |
Siena College[131] | September 18–22, 2022 | 642 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 55% | 32% | 3%[m] | 10% |
Baldwin Wallace University[132] | September 12–15, 2022 | 855 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 57% | 39% | – | 4% |
Marist College[133] | September 12–15, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 55% | 37% | – | 8% |
1,009 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 39% | – | 6% | ||
Emerson College[134] | September 10–13, 2022 | 1000 (LV) | ± 3% | 50% | 33% | 5% | 12% |
Civiqs[135] | September 10–13, 2022 | 780 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 41% | 10% | 5% |
Fallon Research[136] | September 6–11, 2022 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 37% | – | 14% |
Suffolk University[137] | September 5–7, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 39% | – | 7% |
Echelon Insights[138] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 54% | 35% | – | 11% |
Survey Monkey (D)[139][E] | August 31 – September 2, 2022 | 987 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 31% | – | 17% |
519 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 37% | – | 10% | ||
The Trafalgar Group (R)[140] | August 16–19, 2022 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 38% | – | 8% |
Emerson College[141] | August 15–16, 2022 | 925 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 33% | 8% | 11% |
Lake Research Partners (D)[142][F] | August 4–9, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 43% | 8% | 5% |
Lake Research Partners (D)[143][F] | August 3–9, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 43% | 7% | 6% |
Suffolk University[144] | May 22–24, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 30% | 11%[n] | 13% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[145] | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 25% | 10% | 16% |
1,160 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 27% | 11% | 16% |
Mike DeWine vs. John Cranley
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mike DeWine (R) |
John Cranley (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[145] | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 24% | 10% | 16% |
1,160 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 25% | 11% | 15% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
candidate =
{{Election box candidate with party link |
candidate = | ||||
Write-in | 8,964 | 0.22% | N/A | ||
Total votes | 4,134,877 | 100.0% | |||
Turnout | 4,201,368 | 52.32% | |||
Registered electors | 8,029,950 | ||||
Republican hold |
According to a survey conducted by NORC for Fox News and the Associated Press, most white people (68% to 32%), Latinos (64% to 33%), and other minorities (60% to 36%) voted for DeWine, while most African Americans voted for Whaley (73% to 27%).[146]
By county
[edit]County | Mike DeWine Republican |
Nan Whaley Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Adams | 7,348 | 83.83% | 1,395 | 15.92% | 22 | 0.25% | 5,953 | 67.91% | 8,765 |
Allen | 25,461 | 77.97% | 6,835 | 20.93% | 360 | 1.10% | 18,626 | 57.04% | 32,656 |
Ashland | 14,510 | 79.10% | 3,729 | 20.33% | 105 | 0.57% | 10,781 | 58.77% | 18,344 |
Ashtabula | 20,903 | 68.16% | 9,621 | 31.37% | 142 | 0.46% | 11,282 | 36.79% | 30,666 |
Athens | 8,920 | 46.63% | 10,155 | 53.08% | 55 | 0.29% | -1,235 | -6.45% | 19,130 |
Auglaize | 16,019 | 85.80% | 2,474 | 13.25% | 178 | 0.96% | 13,545 | 72.55% | 18,671 |
Belmont | 16,884 | 74.74% | 5,546 | 24.55% | 161 | 0.70% | 11,338 | 50.19% | 22,591 |
Brown | 11,658 | 82.42% | 2,372 | 16.77% | 114 | 0.81% | 9,286 | 65.65% | 14,144 |
Butler | 90,063 | 70.12% | 38,186 | 29.73% | 199 | 0.15% | 51,877 | 40.39% | 128,448 |
Carroll | 8,074 | 79.51% | 1,969 | 19.39% | 112 | 1.11% | 6,105 | 60.12% | 10,155 |
Champaign | 11,324 | 78.34% | 2,962 | 20.49% | 169 | 1.17% | 8,362 | 57.85% | 14,455 |
Clark | 31,121 | 70.88% | 12,559 | 28.60% | 228 | 0.51% | 18,562 | 42.28% | 43,908 |
Clermont | 59,153 | 73.54% | 20,888 | 25.97% | 395 | 0.49% | 38,265 | 47.57% | 80,436 |
Clinton | 11,479 | 81.05% | 2,583 | 18.24% | 101 | 0.71% | 8,896 | 62.81% | 14,163 |
Columbiana | 28,013 | 78.93% | 7,169 | 20.20% | 311 | 0.87% | 20,844 | 58.73% | 35,493 |
Coshocton | 8,901 | 78.44% | 2,369 | 20.88% | 78 | 0.69% | 6,532 | 57.56% | 11,348 |
Crawford | 11,781 | 79.43% | 2,949 | 19.88% | 101 | 0.68% | 8,832 | 59.55% | 14,831 |
Cuyahoga | 175,697 | 42.73% | 234,076 | 56.93% | 1,389 | 0.34% | -58,379 | -14.20% | 411,162 |
Darke | 17,278 | 86.96% | 2,464 | 12.40% | 128 | 0.65% | 14,814 | 74.56% | 19,870 |
Defiance | 10,180 | 75.87% | 3,139 | 23.40% | 98 | 0.73% | 7,041 | 52.47% | 13,417 |
Delaware | 62,733 | 63.49% | 35,942 | 36.37% | 137 | 0.14% | 26,791 | 27.12% | 98,812 |
Erie | 18,651 | 64.31% | 10,236 | 35.30% | 113 | 0.39% | 8,415 | 29.01% | 29,000 |
Fairfield | 41,017 | 69.53% | 17,842 | 30.25% | 129 | 0.22% | 23,175 | 39.28% | 58,988 |
Fayette | 6,913 | 81.88% | 1,476 | 17.48% | 54 | 0.64% | 5,437 | 64.40% | 8,443 |
Franklin | 182,914 | 42.87% | 242,332 | 56.79% | 1,464 | 0.34% | -59,418 | -13.92% | 426,710 |
Fulton | 13,008 | 79.22% | 3,324 | 20.24% | 88 | 0.53% | 9,684 | 58.98% | 16,420 |
Gallia | 7,229 | 79.72% | 1,677 | 18.49% | 162 | 1.79% | 5,552 | 61.23% | 9,068 |
Geauga | 28,931 | 67.97% | 13,344 | 31.35% | 289 | 0.68% | 15,587 | 36.62% | 42,564 |
Greene | 45,787 | 68.90% | 20,565 | 30.95% | 101 | 0.15% | 25,222 | 37.95% | 66,453 |
Guernsey | 9,486 | 78.04% | 2,530 | 20.81% | 139 | 1.14% | 6,956 | 57.23% | 12,155 |
Hamilton | 155,577 | 51.18% | 148,023 | 48.70% | 371 | 0.12% | 7,554 | 2.48% | 303,971 |
Hancock | 20,975 | 77.07% | 6,127 | 22.51% | 114 | 0.42% | 14,848 | 54.56% | 27,216 |
Hardin | 7,210 | 80.42% | 1,717 | 19.15% | 38 | 0.42% | 5,493 | 61.27% | 8,965 |
Harrison | 4,079 | 78.61% | 1,072 | 20.66% | 38 | 0.73% | 3,007 | 57.95% | 5,189 |
Henry | 8,437 | 80.87% | 1,949 | 18.68% | 47 | 0.45% | 6,488 | 62.19% | 10,433 |
Highland | 10,880 | 83.31% | 2,114 | 16.19% | 65 | 0.50% | 8,766 | 67.12% | 13,059 |
Hocking | 7,046 | 73.83% | 2,405 | 25.20% | 92 | 0.96% | 4,641 | 48.63% | 9,543 |
Holmes | 7,262 | 85.96% | 1,115 | 13.20% | 71 | 0.84% | 6,147 | 72.76% | 8,448 |
Huron | 13,904 | 75.06% | 4,464 | 24.10% | 155 | 0.84% | 9,440 | 50.96% | 18,523 |
Jackson | 7,033 | 79.38% | 1,749 | 19.74% | 78 | 0.88% | 5,284 | 59.64% | 8,860 |
Jefferson | 16,929 | 73.90% | 5,855 | 25.56% | 123 | 0.53% | 11,074 | 48.34% | 22,907 |
Knox | 17,349 | 75.22% | 5,525 | 23.95% | 191 | 0.83% | 11,824 | 51.27% | 23,065 |
Lake | 61,121 | 64.66% | 33,098 | 35.01% | 308 | 0.33% | 28,023 | 29.65% | 94,527 |
Lawrence | 13,602 | 77.86% | 3,815 | 21.84% | 52 | 0.30% | 9,787 | 56.02% | 17,469 |
Licking | 46,881 | 70.54% | 19,143 | 28.80% | 439 | 0.66% | 27,738 | 41.74% | 66,463 |
Logan | 13,553 | 82.05% | 2,777 | 16.81% | 188 | 1.14% | 10,776 | 65.24% | 16,518 |
Lorain | 66,289 | 59.69% | 44,314 | 39.90% | 446 | 0.40% | 21,975 | 19.79% | 111,049 |
Lucas | 72,214 | 54.14% | 60,516 | 45.37% | 661 | 0.50% | 11,698 | 8.77% | 133,391 |
Madison | 10,783 | 76.25% | 3,244 | 22.94% | 115 | 0.81% | 7,539 | 53.31% | 14,142 |
Mahoning | 55,676 | 65.20% | 29,444 | 34.48% | 276 | 0.32% | 26,232 | 30.72% | 85,396 |
Marion | 14,263 | 74.17% | 4,818 | 25.05% | 149 | 0.78% | 9,445 | 49.12% | 19,230 |
Medina | 53,498 | 68.47% | 24,034 | 30.76% | 604 | 0.78% | 29,464 | 37.71% | 78,136 |
Meigs | 5,755 | 78.20% | 1,519 | 20.64% | 85 | 1.15% | 4,236 | 57.56% | 7,359 |
Mercer | 15,403 | 86.89% | 2,230 | 12.58% | 104 | 0.53% | 13,173 | 74.31% | 17,727 |
Miami | 33,709 | 79.46% | 8,452 | 19.92% | 261 | 0.62% | 25,257 | 59.54% | 42,422 |
Monroe | 3,793 | 77.97% | 1,022 | 21.01% | 50 | 1.03% | 2,771 | 56.96% | 4,865 |
Montgomery | 110,672 | 59.05% | 76,154 | 40.63% | 603 | 0.32% | 34,518 | 18.42% | 187,429 |
Morgan | 3,808 | 79.35% | 958 | 19.96% | 33 | 0.69% | 2,850 | 59.39% | 4,799 |
Morrow | 10,698 | 80.52% | 2,475 | 18.63% | 113 | 0.85% | 8,223 | 61.89% | 13,286 |
Muskingum | 21,064 | 76.76% | 6,230 | 22.70% | 149 | 0.54% | 14,834 | 54.06% | 27,443 |
Noble | 3,785 | 81.93% | 778 | 16.84% | 57 | 1.24% | 3,007 | 65.09% | 4,620 |
Ottawa | 13,312 | 71.79% | 5,171 | 27.89% | 60 | 0.32% | 8,141 | 43.90% | 18,543 |
Paulding | 5,169 | 79.58% | 1,285 | 19.78% | 41 | 0.63% | 3,884 | 59.80% | 6,495 |
Perry | 9,263 | 78.31% | 2,515 | 21.26% | 50 | 0.43% | 6,748 | 57.05% | 11,828 |
Pickaway | 15,209 | 77.45% | 4,289 | 21.84% | 139 | 0.71% | 10,920 | 55.61% | 19,637 |
Pike | 5,889 | 75.66% | 1,842 | 23.67% | 52 | 0.67% | 4,047 | 51.99% | 7,783 |
Portage | 37,634 | 62.15% | 22,665 | 37.43% | 255 | 0.42% | 14,969 | 24.72% | 60,554 |
Preble | 13,172 | 83.38% | 2,504 | 15.85% | 121 | 0.77% | 10,668 | 67.53% | 15,797 |
Putnam | 13,402 | 89.09% | 1,550 | 10.30% | 92 | 0.62% | 11,852 | 78.79% | 15,044 |
Richland | 30,899 | 74.46% | 10,429 | 25.13% | 170 | 0.41% | 20,470 | 49.33% | 41,498 |
Ross | 16,496 | 72.79% | 6,037 | 26.64% | 130 | 0.57% | 10,459 | 46.15% | 22,663 |
Sandusky | 15,712 | 73.10% | 5,631 | 26.20% | 150 | 0.70% | 10,081 | 46.90% | 21,493 |
Scioto | 15,934 | 75.84% | 5,048 | 24.03% | 29 | 0.14% | 10,886 | 51.81% | 21,011 |
Seneca | 13,667 | 75.45% | 4,319 | 23.84% | 129 | 0.71% | 9,348 | 51.61% | 18,115 |
Shelby | 15,717 | 86.69% | 2,291 | 12.64% | 122 | 0.67% | 13,426 | 74.05% | 18,130 |
Stark | 90,387 | 67.49% | 43,082 | 32.17% | 463 | 0.35% | 47,305 | 35.32% | 133,932 |
Summit | 105,777 | 53.20% | 92,206 | 46.37% | 854 | 0.43% | 13,571 | 6.83% | 198,837 |
Trumbull | 48,459 | 66.48% | 24,163 | 33.15% | 268 | 0.37% | 24,296 | 33.33% | 72,890 |
Tuscarawas | 22,296 | 73.64% | 7,685 | 25.38% | 294 | 0.97% | 14,611 | 48.26% | 30,275 |
Union | 18,387 | 72.10% | 6,918 | 27.13% | 196 | 0.77% | 11,469 | 44.97% | 25,501 |
Van Wert | 8,279 | 82.22% | 1,702 | 16.90% | 88 | 0.88% | 6,577 | 65.32% | 10,069 |
Vinton | 3,111 | 77.87% | 832 | 20.83% | 52 | 1.30% | 2,279 | 57.04% | 3,995 |
Warren | 74,345 | 72.95% | 27,070 | 26.56% | 493 | 0.48% | 47,275 | 46.39% | 101,908 |
Washington | 16,934 | 74.79% | 5,625 | 24.84% | 82 | 0.37% | 11,309 | 49.95% | 22,641 |
Wayne | 28,284 | 73.76% | 9,824 | 25.62% | 238 | 0.63% | 18,460 | 48.14% | 38,346 |
Williams | 10,331 | 79.99% | 2,543 | 19.69% | 41 | 0.32% | 7,788 | 60.30% | 12,915 |
Wood | 31,399 | 64.67% | 17,060 | 35.14% | 95 | 0.20% | 14,339 | 29.53% | 48,554 |
Wyandot | 6,537 | 80.17% | 1,558 | 19.11% | 59 | 0.71% | 4,979 | 61.06% | 8,154 |
Totals | 2,580,685 | 62.27% | 1,545,688 | 37.30% | 17,951 | 0.43% | 1,034,997 | 24.97% | 4,144,324 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Hamilton (largest city: Cincinnati)
- Lorain (largest city: Lorain)
- Lucas (largest city: Toledo)
- Mahoning (largest city: Youngstown)
- Summit (largest city: Akron)
- Trumbull (largest city: Warren)
By congressional district
[edit]DeWine won 13 of 15 congressional districts, including three that elected Democrats.[147]
District | DeWine | Whaley | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 55% | 45% | Steve Chabot (117th Congress) |
Greg Landsman (118th Congress) | |||
2nd | 77% | 23% | Brad Wenstrup |
3rd | 37% | 63% | Joyce Beatty |
4th | 74% | 25% | Jim Jordan |
5th | 71% | 29% | Bob Latta |
6th | 72% | 28% | Bill Johnson |
7th | 63% | 37% | Bob Gibbs (117th Congress) |
Max Miller (118th Congress) | |||
8th | 69% | 31% | Warren Davidson |
9th | 63% | 37% | Marcy Kaptur |
10th | 62% | 38% | Mike Turner |
11th | 30% | 70% | Shontel Brown |
12th | 72% | 28% | Troy Balderson |
13th | 57% | 43% | Tim Ryan (117th Congress) |
Emilia Sykes (118th Congress) | |||
14th | 66% | 34% | David Joyce |
15th | 62% | 38% | Mike Carey |
Analysis
[edit]Voter demographics
[edit]Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls. There were 3,772 total respondents.[148]
Demographic subgroup | DeWine | Whaley | % of total vote |
---|---|---|---|
Ideology | |||
Liberals | 13 | 86 | 20 |
Moderates | 57 | 42 | 42 |
Conservatives | 93 | 6 | 38 |
Party | |||
Democrats | 16 | 84 | 30 |
Republicans | 96 | 3 | 41 |
Independents | 62 | 37 | 29 |
Age | |||
18–24 years old | 44 | 56 | 4 |
25–29 years old | 40 | 60 | 6 |
30–39 years old | 51 | 48 | 12 |
40–49 years old | 60 | 38 | 16 |
50–64 years old | 68 | 31 | 31 |
65 and older | 68 | 32 | 31 |
Gender | |||
Men | 66 | 33 | 52 |
Women | 58 | 41 | 48 |
Marital status | |||
Married | 64 | 35 | 65 |
Unmarried | 56 | 42 | 35 |
Marital status by gender | |||
Married men | 70 | 29 | 31 |
Married women | 58 | 41 | 34 |
Unmarried men | 59 | 39 | 18 |
Unmarried women | 53 | 46 | 17 |
Race/ethnicity | |||
White | 67 | 32 | 84 |
Black | 32 | 67 | 12 |
Latino | 48 | 52 | 2 |
Gender by race | |||
White men | 70 | 29 | 44 |
White women | 64 | 35 | 40 |
Black men | 41 | 59 | 6 |
Black women | 25 | 75 | 6 |
Latino men | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Latino women | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Other racial/ethnic groups | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Education | |||
Never attended college | 68 | 32 | 17 |
Some college education | 64 | 35 | 25 |
Associate degree | 63 | 36 | 15 |
Bachelor's degree | 58 | 40 | 25 |
Advanced degree | 58 | 41 | 18 |
Education by race | |||
White college graduates | 61 | 38 | 37 |
White no college degree | 72 | 27 | 46 |
Non-white college graduates | 44 | 56 | 6 |
Non-white no college degree | 37 | 63 | 11 |
Education by gender/race | |||
White women with college degrees | 57 | 42 | 18 |
White women without college degrees | 69 | 30 | 21 |
White men with college degrees | 65 | 34 | 19 |
White men without college degrees | 74 | 25 | 25 |
Non-white | 39 | 60 | 16 |
Issue regarded as most important | |||
Crime | 66 | 34 | 8 |
Inflation | 81 | 18 | 35 |
Immigration | 92 | 6 | 9 |
Gun policy | 56 | 42 | 16 |
Abortion | 28 | 71 | 26 |
Abortion should be | |||
Legal | 43 | 56 | 58 |
Illegal | 89 | 9 | 37 |
2020 presidential vote | |||
Biden | 20 | 79 | 43 |
Trump | 95 | 3 | 50 |
Biden legitimately won in 2020 | |||
Yes | 37 | 63 | 57 |
No | 95 | 3 | 39 |
Union household | |||
Yes | 56 | 43 | 21 |
No | 62 | 37 | 79 |
Area type | |||
Urban | 53 | 46 | 33 |
Suburban | 68 | 31 | 51 |
Rural | 62 | 38 | 16 |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Someone else" with 6%
- ^ "All others" with 5%
- ^ "Someone else" with 5%
- ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 2%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 6%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 2%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
- ^ Petersen with 11%, "someone else" with 1%
Partisan clients
- ^ This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
- ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Renacci's campaign committee
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Whaley's campaign
- ^ This poll was sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes DeWine
- ^ a b This poll was circulated by the Ohio Democratic Party
References
[edit]- ^ "Voter Turnout in General Elections". Ohio Secretary of State.
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- ^ a b University of Akron
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- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
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- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax Pelzer, Jeremy (April 21, 2021). "Nan Whaley endorsed for Ohio governor by more than half of Democratic state lawmakers". Cleveland.com. Archived from the original on September 8, 2024. Retrieved April 21, 2021.
- ^ a b c d e f g h Bischoff, Laura (September 16, 2021). "Ohio mayors are picking sides in Dem primary for governor: Nan Whaley or John Cranley". The Columbus Dispatch. Archived from the original on October 25, 2021. Retrieved October 25, 2021.
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- ^ a b Wilkinson, Howard (March 26, 2021). "Analysis: What Is Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley Up To?". WVXU.com. Archived from the original on March 26, 2021.
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- ^ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES". Archived from the original on December 4, 2022. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ Civiqs
- ^ Research Co.
- ^ Targoz Market Research
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Data for Progress (D)
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Remington Research Group (R)
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Baldwin Wallace University
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Marist College
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Siena College
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Ohio Northern University/Lucid
- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Data for Progress (D)
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Siena College
- ^ Baldwin Wallace University
- ^ Marist College
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Civiqs
- ^ Fallon Research
- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Survey Monkey (D)
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Lake Research Partners (D)
- ^ Lake Research Partners (D)
- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ a b Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ "Fox News Voter Analysis". Fox News. November 11, 2022. Archived from the original on November 10, 2022. Retrieved November 11, 2022.
- ^ @OPoliticsguru (January 16, 2023). "In the Gubernatorial race, Mike DeWine outran every GOP congressional nominee & was the only statewide GOP nominee to outrun Mike Turner in OH10. Turner has long been an overperformer, but DeWine beat him in the home district of both gubernatorial nominees" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "2022 Ohio Exit Polls". CNN Politics. Retrieved September 28, 2024.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites