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Next Supreme Leader of Iran election

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Next Iranian Supreme Leader election
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88 Members in the Assembly of Experts
59 votes needed to win
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An election for the third Supreme Leader of Iran is scheduled to be held following the end of the current tenure of Ali Khamenei. As of October 2024, no person has been officially declared as the heir to the current leader nor as a nominee, though various sources such as Reuters and the BBC have written on potential candidates.[1][2]

The succession of Khamenei is deemed to have been decided but not disclosed publicly.[1][3] Constitutionally, the Assembly of Experts is tasked to select the next leader. Its sixth and current term was elected in 2024 and is scheduled to sit until 2032.[4]

Khamenei has not discussed his replacement. He has said the selection must be made without shame or regard for expediency, rather based on the three principles of "truth, the need of the country and God".[5][6] A four man council of Assembly of Experts is examining possible candidates while keeping it fully secret and advising the current supreme leader as of 2024.[7][8] A member of the experts assembly in 2024 claimed that his successor has been chosen but the identity of this individual is hidden for his safety.[9]

As of 2024, then-President Ebrahim Raisi and Khamenei's son Mojtaba had been considered frontrunners for the position. Raisi's death in a helicopter crash in May 2024 cut short his potential candidacy.[10][11]

Constitutional eligibility

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Works related to Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran at Wikisource

The Supreme Leader of Iran is selected by members of the Assembly of Experts to serve a life tenure. According to Article 111 of Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, if the incumbent Supreme Leader dies in office or is dismissed, the Assembly of Experts should immediately hold a session and appoint a successor.[4] A 'Provisional Leadership Council' is mandated to carry out the responsibilities of the supreme leader until a permanent successor is selected, which is made up of the incumbent President, the incumbent Chief Justice and one of clerics of the Guardian Council who is selected by the Expediency Discernment Council.[4]

Alleged plans

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In December 2015, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said a committee in the Assembly of Experts "is examining potential candidates to be the next Supreme Leader". He also said the Assembly would be open to choosing "a council of leaders if needed" instead of a single leader.[1]

Ahmad Khatami told press in 2016 that a committee made up of three Assembly members had given three names to the supreme leader "to seek his verdict", but later remarked what he said was "hypothetical" and blamed media for misreporting his words.[12] Mohsen Araki, commented in June 2019 that the committee has drafted a "top secret list of prospective supreme leaders" and will present three names to the Assembly "when it is necessary."[12] Hashem Hashemzadeh Herisi confirmed that such a committee exists, adding that the names on the list will not be disclosed. He also stated that the decisions made by the committee will not be fateful because the next leader must be voted by a majority of all members in the assembly.[12] Prior to that, in February 2019 Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari had categorically dismissed allegations that Ebrahim Raisi and Ahmad Khatami were considered as candidates for the next leader by the assembly, stating that the question "has never been debated at the assembly".[13]

As of 2023, the Assembly of Experts is discussing a potential program to reestablish the post of Vice Supreme Leader, which was last held by Hussein-Ali Montazeri from 1985 to 1989.[14]

Analysis

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In 2023, Israeli military intelligence had assessed President Ebrahim Raisi would succeed Khamenei.[15] John Bolton argued the regime would be vulnerable in the event of Khamenei's death.[16] In the aftermath of Raisi's death, Mojtaba Khamenei has become a more plausible candidate to replace his father, although Ali Khamenei had reportedly opposed this.[17][18][19][20] In the 6th mandate of Assembly of Experts, 92 year old Ayatollah Mohammad-Ali Movahedi Kermani became the new chief of Assembly of Experts.[21][22]

Speculations about potential successors by commentators

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The persons listed in this section are, according to analyses and comments made by various sources, potential candidates (the names are sorted by age):

Name Hassan Rouhani Mohsen Araki Alireza Arafi Sadeq Larijani Mohammad-Mahdi Mirbagheri Mojtaba Khamenei Hassan Khomeini
Picture
Age 75 years, 342 days c. 67–68 years c. 64–65 years 63 years, 221 days c. 62–63 years 55 years, 41 days 51 years, 321 days
Sources [3] [4][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30] [4] [4] [2][31][24][25][27][32][33] [4][2][23][25][27][30][34][32][33] [3][4][2][35][31]

Deceased candidates

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People mentioned below had been regarded as potential candidates during their lifetime.

Name Abbas Vaez-Tabasi Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi Ebrahim Amini Mohammad Yazdi Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi Ebrahim Raisi
Picture
Year of death 2016 2017 2018 2020 2020 2021 2024
Sources [2] [3][2][35][36] [3][2][35][23][31][27][28][30][34][36][37] [3] [2] [2][35][27][33] [4][31][23][24][26][27][28][30][34][32][33][38]

Further reading

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  • Nader, Alireza; Bohandy, S. R. (2011). The Next Supreme Leader: Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran (PDF). Santa Monica, California: Rand Corporation. ISBN 9780833051998.
  • Opinion Poll: Who Will Be Iran's Next Leader? (in Persian), BBC Persian, 22 February 2016

References

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  1. ^ a b c Sharafedin, Bozorgmehr (21 October 2014), Williams, Alison (ed.), "Iran's possible next Supreme Leader being examined: Rafsanjani", Reuters, archived from the original on 16 December 2015, retrieved 30 December 2015
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i Sharafedin, Bozorgmehr (13 December 2015), "Who will be Iran's next Supreme Leader?", BBC, archived from the original on 3 February 2016, retrieved 30 December 2015
  3. ^ a b c d e f Kamali Dehghan, Saeed (31 October 2014), "When the time comes, who will succeed Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?", The Guardian, archived from the original on 20 December 2015, retrieved 30 December 2015
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i Golkar, Saeid (Spring 2019), "Iran after Khamenei: Prospects for Political change", Middle East Policy, 26 (1): 75–88, doi:10.1111/mepo.12401, archived from the original on 6 December 2020, retrieved 11 December 2020
  5. ^ "چه کسی راست می‌گوید؟ − نگاهی به "بحران جانشینی"" [Who is telling the truth? - A look at the "succession crisis"]. Radio Zamaneh (in Persian). 13 June 2020. Archived from the original on 6 August 2024. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  6. ^ رادیوفردا (10 March 2016). "خامنه‌ای: لازم است در انتخاب رهبر رودربایستی و مصلحت‌اندیشی نباشد". Radio Farda (in Persian). Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  7. ^ "عضو مجلس خبرگان ایران: کار برای انتخاب جانشین رهبر ایران به طور "کاملا مخفی" جریان دارد". Afghanistan International (in Persian). 28 November 2023. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  8. ^ "ماجرای صحبت‌های آیت‌الله توکل درباره انتخاب قائم‌مقام رهبری چه بود؟" [What was the story of Ayatollah Tawakkel's talks about the selection of the deputy leadership?]. اعتمادآنلاین (in Persian). 29 November 2023. Archived from the original on 6 August 2024. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  9. ^ Life, Kayhan (15 March 2024). "ANALYSIS: Who Will Succeed Ali Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader?". KAYHAN LIFE. Archived from the original on 6 August 2024. Retrieved 19 May 2024.
  10. ^ "Who Will Lead Iran After President Raisi's Death?". TIME. 20 May 2024. Archived from the original on 20 May 2024. Retrieved 20 May 2024.
  11. ^ Beaumont, Peter (20 May 2024). "Iran: who holds power now the president is dead?". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Archived from the original on 6 August 2024. Retrieved 20 May 2024. Aged 54, the supreme leader's second eldest son is sometimes mentioned as a potential successor to his father.
  12. ^ a b c "Is Iran's Next Supreme Leader Already Chosen?", Radio Farda, 18 June 2019, archived from the original on 18 June 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  13. ^ "Reports And Denials On Succession Planning For Khamenei", Radio Farda, 14 February 2019, archived from the original on 14 February 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  14. ^ "توکل، عضو مجلس خبرگان: در کمیسیون‌های خبرگان در مورد قائم مقام رهبری کار می‌کنند" [Tawakkul, member of the Assembly of Experts: They work in expert commissions regarding the deputy leadership]. Iran International (in Persian). 28 November 2023. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  15. ^ فردا, رادیو (22 August 2023). "سازمان اطلاعات نظامی ارتش اسرائیل: رئیسی احتمالاً رهبر بعدی جمهوری اسلامی است" [Israel Military Intelligence Organization: Raisi is likely to be the next leader of the Islamic Republic]. Radio Farda (in Persian). Archived from the original on 6 August 2024. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  16. ^ "Bolton Foresees Regime Change In Iran After Khamenei's Death". Iran International. 11 August 2023. Archived from the original on 6 August 2024. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  17. ^ "یک زمزمه‌ قدیمی؛ نماینده مجلس خبرگان: خامنه‌ای با رهبری پسرش مجتبی مخالفت کرده است". euronews (in Persian). 28 February 2024. Retrieved 29 May 2024.
  18. ^ Yan, Sophia; Makoii, Akhtar (20 May 2024). "Iranian president's helicopter crash death clears field for Khamenei's son". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Archived from the original on 6 August 2024. Retrieved 29 May 2024.
  19. ^ "Rumors, Conspiracy Theories Abound After Raisi's Death". Iran International. Archived from the original on 6 August 2024. Retrieved 29 May 2024.
  20. ^ Solomon, Erika (20 May 2024). "After Raisi's Death, Speculation Over Succession Turns to Ayatollah's Son". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on 6 August 2024. Retrieved 29 May 2024.
  21. ^ "محمدعلی موحدی کرمانی رئیس مجلس خبرگان رهبری شد". BBC News فارسی (in Persian). 21 May 2024. Retrieved 29 May 2024.
  22. ^ "آغاز ششمین دوره مجلس خبرگان؛ رئیسی می‌توانست نامزد ریاست نهادی شود که وظیفه‌اش انتخاب رهبر است". euronews (in Persian). 21 May 2024. Retrieved 29 May 2024.
  23. ^ a b c d "Predicting the Unpredictable in Iranian Politics", Stratfor, 8 March 2017, archived from the original on 8 March 2017, retrieved 15 March 2017
  24. ^ a b c Bozorgmehr, Najmeh (23 January 2020), "Iran: the unspoken battle to succeed Ayatollah Khamenei", The Financial Times, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  25. ^ a b c Cunningham, Erin; Salim, Mustafa (21 March 2019), "Clues to the identity of Iran's next supreme leader in the back alleys of a holy city", The Washington Post, archived from the original on 8 November 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  26. ^ a b Dehghanpisheh, Babak (9 May 2017), Graff, Peter (ed.), "Iran Guards look beyond election to next supreme leader", Reuters, archived from the original on 9 May 2017, retrieved 30 December 2015
  27. ^ a b c d e f Vakil, Sanam; Rassam, Hossein (May–June 2017), "Iran's Next Supreme Leader: The Islamic Republic After Khamenei", Foreign Affairs, archived from the original on 11 April 2017, retrieved 30 December 2015
  28. ^ a b c MacMillan, Arthur (10 February 2019), "Explainer: How Iran will pick its next supreme leader", The National, archived from the original on 10 February 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  29. ^ Samadi, Mona (11 February 2020), "As Iran heads to the polls, could Rouhani be facing impeachment?", Middle East Institute, archived from the original on 23 February 2020, retrieved 30 December 2015
  30. ^ a b c d Abdo, Geneive (4 February 2019), "Iran's Battle Over Khamenei's Successor is Just Getting Started", Center for the National Interest, archived from the original on 6 February 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  31. ^ a b c d Perteghella, Annalisa (18 May 2017), "The "Other" Election: After Khamenei Who Will Succeed?", Italian Institute for International Political Studies, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  32. ^ a b c Funes, Rossina; Gladin, Maeve (24 May 2019), "Khamenei is turning 80: Who will be next Iran's Supreme Leader?", University of Navarra, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  33. ^ a b c d "Analysis: Quest to find Iran's next Supreme Leader", BBC Monitoring, 5 December 2018, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  34. ^ a b c Ganji, Akbar (4 August 2017), "Khamenei's New Potential Hard-line Successor", Radio Farda, archived from the original on 2 March 2020, retrieved 30 December 2015
  35. ^ a b c d Bordbar, Behdad (15 July 2015), "Who will be Iran's next supreme leader?", Al-Monitor, archived from the original on 22 January 2016, retrieved 30 December 2015
  36. ^ a b Sadjadpour, Karim (2009), "Reading Khamenei: The World View of Iran's Most Powerful Leader" (PDF), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, archived (PDF) from the original on 25 January 2016, retrieved 30 December 2015
  37. ^ Lim, Kevjn (10 January 2019), "Iran's Next Supreme Leader Is Dead", Foreign Policy, archived from the original on 11 January 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  38. ^ Bob, Yonah Jeremy (8 August 2019), "Has Ebrahim Raisi been tagged as Iran's next Supreme Leader?", The Jerusalem Post, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
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