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2024 Japanese by-elections

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On April 28, 2024, by-elections in Japan were held in order to fill vacancies in the National Diet of Japan.[1] In the October 27 slot, there will be (as of August 16) at least one national by-election, for the Iwate senate seat in the 2022 class after incumbent Megumi Hirose (LDP→independent) has resigned.[2]

Summary

[edit]
Constituency House Outgoing MP Before party Reason Member elected After party
Nagasaki 3rd district House of Representatives Yaichi Tanigawa Independent[a] Resigned on 24 January 2024[4][5] Katsuhiko Yamada CDP
Shimane 1st district House of Representatives Hiroyuki Hosoda LDP Died on 10 November 2023[6] Akiko Kamei
Tokyo 15th district House of Representatives Mito Kakizawa Independent[b] Resigned on 1 February 2024[8] Natsumi Sakai
Iwate at-large district House of Councillors Megumi Hirose Independent[c] Resigned on 15 August 2024[9] Eiji Kidoguchi

Elections

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Tokyo 15th district

[edit]
Tokyo 15th district, as seen within Tokyo Prefecture. (While Tokyo's 15th district remains unchanged, the other districts shown will only become effective in the next general House of Representatives election.)
Former Representative Mito Kakizawa

Mito Kakizawa, who has run for and been elected (proportionally in 2009 and 2021) in every election since 2009, was indicted for illegal financing during a Tokyo mayoral election. He resigned soon after, leaving the seat open for a by-election. Four political parties have nominated candidates, all of which are listed below. The field grew to seven candidates in late March.

  • Yui Kanazawa is running with the support of Nippon Ishin no Kai, as party leader Nobuyuki Baba announced on February 1. Kanazawa was already announced as the Ishin candidate for the district in the next general election. She is a former office worker.[10]
  • Akari Iiyama is running with the support of the Conservative Party of Japan, the first ever by-election for the party. She is a visiting professor at the Reitaku University Center for International Studies.[11]
  • Rina Yoshikawa received the endorsement of Sanseitō. She works as a nurse. She was also already announced as the candidate for the party in the next general election.[12]
  • Former House of Representative member Tsukasa Akimoto is planning to run in the by-election. He has stated his intent to seek recognition from the LDP.[13] He did not receive support.
  • Natsumi Sakai is planning to running with the support of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. Sakai formerly ran for the Kōtō mayoral election in December 2023, but lost. Kenta Izumi has stated his intent to collaborate with the Japanese Communist Party in support of Sakai.[14]
  • Hirotada Ototake is running with the support of First no Kai. Ototake is known for his autobiography, No One's Perfect. The LDP did not endorse him.[15] Komeito has been resistant to back him. The Democratic Party for the People endorsed him.[16]
  • Genki Sudo, who serves as a political independent in the House of Councilors but was elected with support from the CDP, announced his intention to run as an independent on 2 April.[17]
  • Ryosuke Nemoto, who serves as secretary-general of Tsubasa Party, a small, right-wing anti-American party, is running with the support of the party. He announced his candidacy on 8 April.[18]
  • Katsuya Fukunaga, who works as a lawyer, was announced as the candidate for the NHK Party. His campaign was focused on restructuring welfare, along with internet harassment. He announced his candidacy on 13 April.[18]

Additionally, three other people have been rumored, or have planned previously, to run.

  • Yuriko Koike, current Governor of Tokyo and former Kibō no Tō and LDP member, has been continuously rumored to have interest in the by-election. She has stated that "The answer is the same as always. The budget is currently being deliberated by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. We are working hard to advance the Tokyo Metropolitan Government." It has been similarly stated that the local LDP branch wishes to cooperate with Governor Koike, especially due to the current precarious stance of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's low approval ratings.[19]
  • Mari Takahashi had originally planned to run for the Democratic Party for the People, but following the confirmation of the possibility of legal issues in her financing and registration, canceled its endorsement. Takahashi withdrew.[20]
  • Higashi Kozutsumi was announced as the Japanese Communist Party candidate on February 13. Kozutsumi currently serves as party chair for the Kōtō District Committee. He was already announced as the JCP candidate for the district in the next general election. He dropped out after the JCP and CDP had come to an agreement to support Sakai.[21]

The LDP were resistant to field a candidate. The LDP had previously began searching for a candidate, but paused, stating that "adjustments were needed." It also stated its expectation in support from Yuriko Koike and Komeito. The CDP has stated interest in fielding a candidate, and did so in late March, nominating Natsumi Sakai.[22] Eventually, on 2 April, party secretary Toshimitsu Motegi announced that it would not field a candidate, instead endorsing Hirotada Ototake, citing the slush fund scandal as potentially wounding the chance of LDP candidates.[23] With the LDP refusing to endorse a candidate, they have effectively lost the by-election by default. Polling has shown a slight, but consistent, CDP lead, with Kanazawa finishing second and Ototake finishing third. The candidate of Koike finishing third could signal a decline in her influence.

Results and analysis

[edit]

Sakai won the election with 28.98% of the vote, a clear plurality of over ten points against her closest opponent, Genki Sudo, who finished second in what was considered a somewhat surprising result for him. He was only backed by Reiwa Shinsengumi and its party leader, Taro Yamamoto.[24] The Conservative Party of Japan also captured a strong percentage of the vote for its first showing in an election, with its candidate placing above the recommended Tomin First no Kai candidate for the fourth spot. Sakai's victory was mainly reasoned on her strong support from the CDP, Japanese Communist Party, and independents in the area.[25]

The result was considered disappointing for Nippon Ishin no Kai, which wished to finish at least second. Party leader Nobuyuki Baba stated "It's a very difficult situation to win in single-seat constituencies outside of Kansai."[26]

A large reason for the severe loss of Hirotada Ototake, who was backed by a number of forces (including influential Governor Yuriko Koike's local force and the Democratic Party for the People) was chalked up to the divide in governmental forces, particularly with Komeito and local LDP forces. Ototake had gone through a myriad of scandals (including a revelation that he had an affair), and, furthermore, had refused to back the LDP in the Koto mayoral election which had occurred late last year, which also saw a split between Koike and the LDP. Additionally, Komeito had large reservations, mainly circled around the fact they had not been consulted in his recommendation. Neither of the parties ended up recommending him, with Komeito letting its members freely vote.[25]

The result also led to the resignation of the DPP regional branch chief.[26]

Shimane 1st district

[edit]
Shimane 1st district, as seen within Shimane Prefecture
Former Representative Hiroyuki Hosoda

Hiroyuki Hosoda, who served as Speaker of the House of Representatives, announced his intention to resign due to health problems, and stepped down in September. He died a little over a month later. He has represented the district since the first introduction of FPTP districts in 1996, and previously served Shimane in a multimember district starting from 1990. Shimane is viewed as an LDP stronghold.[27] Two candidates have registered for the by-election.

  • The Liberal Democratic Party Shimane Prefecture Federation publicly recruited candidates in December 2023. Fumishiro Sakurauchi, a former member of the House of Representatives, and Koumasa Nishikori, a former director of the China Finance Bureau, filed for motions to run. On January 16, 2024, the prefectural federation decided to support Nishikori. On January 24, the party headquarters decided to officially recognize Nishikori.[28]
  • Akiko Kamei was announced as the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan's candidate on January 9, 2024.[29] The Democratic Party for the People Prefectural Branch endorsed her on January 27. Party leader Yuichiro Tamaki supported the move.[30] The SDP announced it would support her on March 22.[31]

Additionally, there was two other candidates who have since dropped out, or did not make the ballot.

  • Eriko Muraho, a former high school teacher and member of the Japan Communist Party Shimane Prefecture Committee, applied for recognition from the Japanese Communist Party. He was also named the candidate for the constituency's next election. He initially received recognition to run in the by-election, but support was withdrawn on March 18, 2024, after the Prefectural Committee of the JCP decided it would instead unify around Kamei instead. He voluntarily supported Kamei.[32]
  • Nobuo Sasaki, an 85 year old who serves as chairman of a social welfare corporation in Yamaguchi Prefecture, announced his intention to run on February 29. He applied for recognition from the Conservative Party of Japan.[33] He failed to submit his candidacy by the notification date.

Where as Shimane is usually extremely loyal to the LDP brand, with neither of its two seats having elected a single opposition member since the electoral reform took place in 1996, the LDPs power in the prefecture has waned due to extreme controversy faced by Hiroyuki Hosoda, who is alleged to have been involved in sexual harassment and to have also dealt with the Unification Church.[27]

Furthermore, with the death of Noboru Takeshita and Wataru Takeshita, who both held strong sway over the politics inside the prefecture, the LDP has struggled to deal with the consequences. The CDP also believe in the potential seat as a flip, and believe it to serve as a bellwether for the next general election; Kenta Izumi, Katsuya Okada and Yukio Edano have traveled to the district to drum up support Kamei's candidacy.[27] LDP party secretary Toshimitsu Motegi has stated that it will not run a candidate in either of the two other by-elections occurring concurrently, citing its want to focus on the contest in the district.[23] Polling has shown a narrow, but consistent, lead in favor of Kamei.

Results and analysis

[edit]

Despite it being the only district where the LDP had chosen to run a candidate, Kamei won with 58.82% of the vote, over fifteen points ahead of Nishikori. There were a large number of reasons given for the defeat, mainly that the 2023–2024 Japanese slush fund scandal, which previous representative Hiroyuki Hosoda, who was head of the Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai for a seven years, was thought to possibly be involved in.[34]

Another reason for the loss was chalked up to a disconnect between two warring factions inside the LDP branch of the prefecture, mainly those centered around the former representative, Hosoda, and the other focused on former Prime Minister of Japan and his family, Noboru Takeshita and Wataru Takeshita. The two factions failed to properly coordinate on a campaign, with the Takeshita group attempting to distance themselves from Hosoda while the Hosoda faction continued to bring him up. One supporter of the Takeshita faction said "If you want support from the people of the prefecture, you shouldn't bring up Hosoda. What are you thinking?"[34]

Kamei was also able to capture a secure amount of opposition support as well as independents (exit polls said she had won around 70% of independents exactly), and even captured nearly 30% of LDP voters. The LDP voter base also dwindled in general; people who listed the LDP as their main party had gone down to 37%, compared to 50% in 2021. The result made it the first time ever that the opposition had won a seat in Shimane since the introduction of FPTP districts.[34]

Nagasaki 3rd district

[edit]
Nagasaki 3rd district inside Nagasaki Prefecture from the next general House of Representatives election
Former Representative Yaichi Tanigawa

Yaichi Tanigawa, who represented the district from 2003 onward (with exception for 2009, where he was elected proportionally), was indicted by Tokyo Police for receiving over ¥40 million in kickbacks from the Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai. He resigned on 19 January, and left the LDP.[4]

So far, two candidates have been announced.

The LDP has yet to field a candidate. There has been controversy inside the party on if to field one or not; Nagasaki 3rd is set to be eliminated at the next election due to reapportionment of districts, and Tanigawa's scandal has severely damaged the image of the party inside the district. Chairman of the Nagasaki Prefectural Federation, Yuichiro Koga, and Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party Toshimitsu Motegi have met on several occasions to discuss the possibility of sitting out the election, with Motegi reportedly in support of sitting out and Koga willing to follow the party line. It has been reported that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has been reluctant to side with Motegi, due to murmurs of Motegi wanting to take down Kishida and his faction going into the future. The party has yet to make an official statement.[40][41][42] Party secretary Toshimitsu Motegi confirmed that it would not run a candidate, citing the fact the district would be eliminated, and also due to the wish to focus on the contest in Shimane 1st.[23] Polling is limited due to the odd nature surrounding the district, but Yamada has been shown as leading over Inoue.

Results and analysis

[edit]

Yamada won the election with 68.36% of the vote. Voter turnout was incredibly low, at just 35.45%. Analysis is generally hard to gather, but suggestion has been put forward that Ishin has faced continuous difficulties in its goal to pass the CDP as primary leader of the opposition. and to get candidates elected in single seat constituencies outside of Kansai, Baba stated that he would continue not to cooperate with the CDP or any other opposition forces.[43]

Iwate at-large district

[edit]
Location of Iwate Prefecture

The Iwate at-large district by-election for the House of Councillors was scheduled for 27 October 2024[44] after incumbent Megumi Hirose resigned on 15 August following an admission she had fraudulently paid salaries to a secretary who performed no duties.

Results and analysis

[edit]

The seat was won by Eiji Kidoguchi of the CDP.[45]

See also

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Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Resigned from the LDP following his indictment related to the slush fund scandal.[3]
  2. ^ Resigned from the LDP over allegations of vote-buying.[7]
  3. ^ Resigned from the LDP following an admission she had fraudulently paid salaries to a secretary who performed no duties.

References

[edit]
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  2. ^ Nihon Keizai Shimbun, August 15, 2024: 広瀬めぐみ参院議員が議員辞職　10月に補欠選挙へ, retrieved August 16, 2024.
  3. ^ Ogawa, Takashi (19 January 2024). "「離島のドン」谷川弥一氏、略式起訴で自民離党 「頭悪いね」発言も". asahi. Asahi Shimbun. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  4. ^ a b "Prosecutors indict several LDP faction members over funds scandal". Kyodo News. 19 January 2024. Retrieved 20 January 2024.
  5. ^ "Ex-LDP member Tanigawa resigns as lawmaker amid funds scandal". KYODO NEWS. Retrieved 28 April 2024.
  6. ^ "LDP heavyweight Hiroyuki Hosoda dies month after quitting as house speaker". Kyodo News. Retrieved 28 April 2024.
  7. ^ "柿沢未途 前法務副大臣 自民党に離党届を提出". nhk.or.jp. NHK. 14 December 2023. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  8. ^ "Ex-LDP member quits as lawmaker amid alleged election law violation". kyodonews. Kyodo News. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  9. ^ 編集局, 時事通信 (2024-08-15). "広瀬参院議員が辞職 秘書給与詐取事件に絡み：時事ドットコム". 時事ドットコム (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-10-30.
  10. ^ "維新が柿沢未途氏辞職に伴う衆院東京１５区補選に金沢結衣氏を擁立 ３３歳の元会社員". sankei. Sankei Shimbun. February 2024.
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  12. ^ "参政党、衆院東京15区補選に新顔・吉川氏擁立へ". asahi. Asahi Shimbun. 15 March 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  13. ^ "無罪なら自民党に公認申請へ 秋元司被告が衆院東京15区補選への出馬表明 22日にIR汚職で控訴審判決". tokyo-np. Tokyo Web. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
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  17. ^ "僕の地元である江東区、東京15区の補選に出馬をすることを決意しました".
  18. ^ a b "衆議院東京15区補欠選挙2024年 9人の立候補者 選挙戦の訴え 選挙区の江東区では". NHK. Retrieved 26 April 2024.
  19. ^ Morioka, Kohei (8 March 2024). "補選出馬問われた小池氏「都政に邁進」それでも自民に広がる戦々恐々". Asahi Digital. Asahi Shimbun. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  20. ^ "「法令違反の恐れ」国民民主、衆院東京１５区補選の公認内定を取り消し". sankei. Sankei Shimbun. 25 February 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  21. ^ "共産、東京１５区補選に新人の小堤東氏 党地区委員長 野党擁立決定３人目". sankei. Sankei Shimbun. 13 February 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  22. ^ "自民党本部、東京都連の候補者公募に異例の「待った」…公明と小池百合子氏の支援に期待". yomiuri. Yomiuri Shimbun. 25 February 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  23. ^ a b c "自民、東京・長崎で擁立見送り 裏金事件影響、乙武氏推薦へ". nordot. Kyodo News. 2 April 2024. Retrieved 2 April 2024.
  24. ^ "須藤元気氏　山本太郎氏が明かした「野党統一候補案」を蹴った理由を初激白！". Tokyo Sports. Retrieved 29 April 2024.
  25. ^ a b "衆院東京15区補選 立民 酒井菜摘が勝利 自民不在の「乱戦」は". NHK. Retrieved 29 April 2024.
  26. ^ a b "維新・馬場代表、内閣不信任案への賛成を示唆". Nikkei. Retrieved 29 April 2024.
  27. ^ a b c "Hosoda name now a 'liability' for LDP in Shimane election". asahi. Asahi Shimbun. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  28. ^ "衆院島根1区補選 自民県連が元中国財務局長の擁立を決定". mainichi. Mainichi Shimbun. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  29. ^ "衆院島根1区補欠選挙党公認内定者に亀井亜紀子さんを決定". cdp-japan. CDP. 9 January 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  30. ^ "衆院島根１区補選 亀井氏を支援 国民島根". sanin-chuo. 28 January 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  31. ^ "社民党、立憲民主党候補を支援 衆院島根1区補選". nikkei. 22 March 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  32. ^ Omura, Jiro (18 March 2024). "衆院島根1区補選で共産が擁立候補を取り下げ 立憲候補を自主支援へ衆院島根1区補選で共産が擁立候補を取り下げ 立憲候補を自主支援へ". asahi. Asahi Shimbun. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  33. ^ "衆院島根１区補選、山口県出身の佐々木氏が立候補表明". sanin. 29 February 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  34. ^ a b c "島根1区 立民の亀井亜紀子が屈指の自民王国で勝利 衆院補選". NHK. Retrieved 29 April 2024.
  35. ^ "立民、長崎３区補選に比例現職の山田勝彦氏 宮城３区は元アナウンサーの柳沢剛氏". sankei. Sankei Shimbun. 30 January 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  36. ^ "衆院3区補選 立憲・山田氏を「自主的に支援」 共産・県委員会 ／長崎". mainichi. Mainichi Shimbun. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  37. ^ "社民党、比例東北に新人 次期衆院選". nikkei. 21 February 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  38. ^ "国民民主、４月の衆院島根１区・長崎３区補選は立民候補支援 東京１５区は対応未定". sankei. Sankei Shimbun. 6 March 2024.
  39. ^ "維新が４月の衆院長崎補選に候補を擁立 塾経営の４０歳男性、野党は立民も". sankei. Sankei Shimbun. 7 February 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  40. ^ "自民、長崎で不戦敗論強まる 東京も弱気、ダメージ軽減狙い―衆院補選". jiji. Jiji Press. 11 March 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  41. ^ "衆院長崎3区補選 自民の候補擁立見送り調整に支持者戸惑い 長崎県連「協議中」と強調". nagasaki-np. Nagasaki Newspaper. 28 February 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  42. ^ "衆院長崎3区補選 "不戦敗"調整の自民、結論示されず地元困惑 「主体性ない」県連執行部批判も". nagasaki-np. Nagasaki Newspaper. 12 March 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  43. ^ "「立民たたきつぶす」と言っていた維新・馬場代表「まだ関西以外の小選挙区で勝つことは厳しい」". Yomiuri. Retrieved 29 April 2024.
  44. ^ "Campaigning begins for Upper House by-election in Iwate". Japan Times. Oct 10, 2024.
  45. ^ CDP candidate wins Upper House by-election - The Japan Times
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